MLB DFS Algo Orientation: DFS Picks and Plays

MLB DFS Slate Analysis

This is an algorithmically generated breakdown of the NBA DFS main slate using the models found at Paydirt. You’ll get high level information about the most valuable players on the slate along with a handy table to use for your own lineups. For more projections and model data check out the MLB DFS Range of Outcomes and the MLB Contest Simulations.

MLB Pitcher Ceiling Data Breakdown

Shane Baz (SP, TBR, $8400): Baz has the highest ceiling projection among the listed pitchers at 51.93 and the highest Top_finish rate at 32%. His median projection is also strong at 21.45. His projected ownership of 20% suggests he will be a popular but high-upside option.
Dylan Cease (SP, SDP, $9800): Cease boasts a high ceiling of 46.56 and a strong Top_finish rate of 21%. His median projection is 20.02. With a projected ownership of 16%, he offers significant strikeout upside and ceiling potential, potentially at slightly lower ownership than Baz.
Framber Valdez (SP, HOU, $8800): Valdez has a notable ceiling of 42.63 and a solid Top_finish rate of 11%. His median projection is 17.59. His projected ownership of 22% indicates he will be a popular choice, likely due to his consistency and ability to pitch deep into games.
Tarik Skubal (SP, DET, $10500): Skubal has a ceiling of 42.73 and a Top_finish rate of 11%. His median projection is 17.772. He has the highest salary among these pitchers and a high projected ownership of 35%, suggesting he is considered one of the top pitching options on the slate.
Clay Holmes (SP, NYM, $7500): Holmes has a ceiling projection of 42.25 and a Top_finish rate of 12%. His median projection is 18.03. At a lower salary and projected ownership of 13% compared to the others, Holmes could be an interesting pivot for those looking for ceiling at a lower cost.

MLB Pitcher Ownership Data Breakdown

Tarik Skubal (SP, DET, $10500): Skubal has the highest projected ownership at 35%. His ceiling is 42.73, median is 17.77, and Top_finish rate is 11%. His high price and ownership suggest he is a highly regarded option.
Dustin May (SP, LAD, $9300): May has a significant projected ownership of 24% despite a 0% Top_finish rate and a lower ceiling of 30.97 and median of 12.66. This high ownership with seemingly lower upside might make him a potential fade candidate in tournaments.
Framber Valdez (SP, HOU, $8800): Valdez has a projected ownership of 22%. His ceiling is 42.63, median is 17.59, and Top_finish rate is 11%. His combination of solid projections and ownership makes him a popular option.
Shane Baz (SP, TBR, $8400): Baz has a projected ownership of 20%. He offers the highest ceiling at 51.93 and a strong Top_finish rate of 32% with a median of 21.45. His lower salary compared to Skubal and similar ownership to Valdez could make him a compelling option.
Sonny Gray (SP, STL, $8500): Gray has a projected ownership of 17%. His ceiling is 38.84, median is 14.95, and Top_finish rate is just 1%. His moderate ownership despite a lower Top_finish rate might make him a less appealing option compared to pitchers with similar or lower ownership and higher upside.

MLB Hitter Ceiling Data Breakdown

Shohei Ohtani (1B/OF, LAD, $6500): Ohtani has the highest ceiling projection at 53.19 and the highest Top_5_finish rate at 52%, indicating a high probability of a top performance. His median projection is 10.55. Despite a high projected ownership of 31.0%, his immense upside might justify the popularity. He also has a 16% chance of scoring more than two times his salary (2x%).
Aaron Judge (OF, NYY, $6400): Judge boasts a significant ceiling of 36.71 and a solid median of 8.43. His Top_5_finish rate is 22%. However, his projected ownership is lower at 8.3%, potentially making him a good leverage play if he reaches his ceiling. His 2x% is 2%.
Mookie Betts (SS, LAD, $6200): Betts offers a strong ceiling of 31.32 and a median of 8.17. His Top_5_finish rate is 20%, and his projected ownership is 15.3%. He has a 3% chance of a 2x performance. Being a leadoff hitter in a potent Dodgers lineup increases his potential for high fantasy output.
Freddie Freeman (1B, LAD, $4900): Freeman provides a solid floor with a median of 8.01 and a ceiling of 30.77. His Top_5_finish rate is 15%, and his projected ownership is relatively high at 23.4%. He has a significant 14% chance of achieving 2x value, making him a consistent contributor, though perhaps less of a pure ceiling play compared to Ohtani or Judge.
Juan Soto (OF, NYM, $6100): Soto has a ceiling projection of 30.11 and a median of 7.73. His Top_5_finish rate is 15%, and his projected ownership is lower at 4.4%. His 2x% is 2%. Batting in the Mets’ lineup, he possesses significant upside and could be a lower-owned option with the potential for a big game.

MLB Hitter Value Data Breakdown

Stuart Fairchild (OF, ATL, $2000): Fairchild stands out with a very high 2x% of 76% despite a low salary of $2000. His median projection is 6.59, and his ceiling is 19.62. His Top_5_finish rate is lower at 4%, but his high probability of exceeding value makes him an attractive punt play, especially with a moderate ownership of 7.3%.
Kyle Farmer (2B, COL, $2300): Farmer has an impressive 2x% of 73% at a salary of $2300. His median projection is 6.88, and his ceiling is 23.37. His Top_5_finish rate is 6%, offering some upside beyond just value. His low ownership of 2.1% further enhances his appeal as a potential value play with leverage.
David Hamilton (2B/SS, BOS, $2100): Hamilton offers a high 2x% of 71% at a very low salary of $2100. His median projection is 6.49, and his ceiling is 18.84. His Top_5_finish rate is 2%, indicating lower pure upside, but his high likelihood of hitting value with low ownership (3.2%) makes him a viable salary saver.
Tyler Wade (OF/SS, SDP, $2200): Wade has a strong 2x% of 67% at a salary of $2200. His median projection is 6.44, and his ceiling is 18.32. His Top_5_finish rate is 3%, suggesting limited ceiling. However, his high probability of exceeding value with very low ownership (1.1%) makes him an interesting punt option, especially if the Padres offense performs well.
Mickey Moniak (OF, COL, $2200): Moniak shows a good 2x% of 65% at a salary of $2200. His median projection is 6.29, and his ceiling is 19.59. His Top_5_finish rate is 3%. Playing in the Colorado offense at a low ownership of 1.3% and a high likelihood of hitting value makes him a potentially valuable salary-saving option.

MLB Stacks 8+ Data Breakdown

COL (Colorado Rockies): With a projected ownership of just 1.50%, the Rockies present a low-ownership contrarian option. Their 20% win percentage indicates they are not heavily favored, but their 13% in the “Top Score” category implies they have some upside to be the highest-scoring team on the slate. Utilizing Rockies stacks could provide leverage if they exceed expectations.
NYM (New York Mets): The Mets have a relatively low projected ownership of 3.20%. Their 14% win percentage suggests they are not strong favorites, but their 7% in the “Top Score” category offers some boom potential. Their lower ownership could make them an interesting GPP target if their offense performs well.
NYY (New York Yankees): Despite being a well-known offensive team, the Yankees have a projected ownership of just 3.80%. They possess a reasonable 19% win percentage. Their 12% in the “Top Score” category suggests a decent chance of being the highest-scoring team. Their lower ownership might be due to other perceived stronger options on the slate, making them a potentially overlooked high-upside stack.
SDP (San Diego Padres): The Padres also have a projected ownership of 3.80% according to this source. They exhibit aa significant potential for offensive output. Their 16% win percentage and 8% in the “Top Score” category suggest they have a chance to be a top offensive team despite not being heavily favored. Their lower ownership, despite the high runs potential, could make them an attractive GPP play.
DET (Detroit Tigers): With a projected ownership of 7.20%, the Tigers are another team with relatively low ownership. Their 14% win percentage and 8% in the “Top Score” category indicate some, though not overwhelming, upside. Their lower ownership makes them a potential differentiator in larger tournaments if their offense performs above expectations.