Welcome to the MLB Macro Minute! This is a short article focused on macro environments and trending teams. The goal here is to identify easy spots to focus or remove from slates and make DFS a bit easier.
If you have any questions or comments reach out to me in the discord or over on X for some more discussion
Macro Pitcher Stats
- 10-game slate with plenty of options at pitcher. Imai, Flaherty, and Gore are the top 3 arms in terms of True AVG
- Kolek, Fedde, and Houser are bottom 3 True AVG pitchers on the slate. A KCR/CHW game-stack is viable and Dodgers should rate well.
- With this many options there aren’t a lot of “wrong” answers at SP, but definitely take other factors such as opponent, and K-upside into consideration to condense the pool.
Macro Team Stats
- The Dodgers are the top team in the scoring percentages despite burning us last night. But today is a new day and they face an even worse pitcher.
- CHC, MIA, CHW, TBR, and SEA are the next tier of teams to consider. MIA is especially intriguing as not only do they face a bad starting pitcher but a bad bullpen behind him as well.
- On the other end of the spectrum, the models are very low on MIN, SDP, ARI, STL, and TEX.
Trending Teams
The Tampa Bay Rays sit atop the trending table and get a good trending matchup as well. The Cubs, Whitesox, and Dodgers are the next teams towards the top. The Dodgers and Whitesox having the better trending matchup out of those three teams. Similar to the scoring percentages, teams like MIN, TEX, and SDP have both poor trending for, and trending matchup numbers.
If you want to research these teams yourself, go over to the master tables and look into their trending performances!
Portfolio Analysis Exposures
When you run 1,000 lineups into the portfolio manager and do some filtering, you end up with the above results. Some notes:
- Paying down at SP2 seems like the move – Sproat shows up in just over 50% of lineups.
- The pay up pitchers are split between Yamamoto and Gore
- CHW looks like the priority stack based on exposure%
- Despite their poor overall team metrics, a couple of TEX bats show up in Duran and Carter. This is primarily due to their median projection relative to their lower price.
Thanks for reading, go grab some trophies.
