Welcome to the MLB Macro Minute! This is a short article focused on macro environments and trending teams. The goal here is to identify easy spots to focus or remove from slates and make DFS a bit easier.
If you have any questions or comments reach out to me in the discord or over on X for some more discussion
Macro Pitcher Stats
- Kyle Harrison and Cam Schlittler lead the slate in True AVG with both coming in sub – .200
- Miles and Mahle are two cheaper arms that standout with strong True AVG if you need some savings at SP
- Eric Lauer and Jason “not George” Alexander are the two worst pitchers tonight in regards to True AVG which puts both TEX and COL bats into consideration. Randy Vasquez is also due for some negative regression.
Macro Team Stats
- HOU is a bit perplexing as they lead the slate in 8+ at a whopping 40%. However, they don’t have a strong matchup per True AVG and don’t have a particularly high ceiling per the Stack ROO.
- The Dodgers are right behind the Astros as a top stack tonight, and honestly they make much more sense in that spot.
- TOR, PHI, and MIL don’t look great in the scoring percentages tonight which likely relegates them to MME and large field pools only.
Trending Teams
SFG is the top trending team and is decently ranked in the scoring percentages as well. HOU is also trending well, and while the individual pitcher matchup might not be great, as a team TEX is a weak matchup. The Dodgers are another team with overlap between the trending tables and the scoring percentages reinforcing their status as a priority tonight. ARI and MIA are two other teams worth looking at that have been trending well.
If you want to research these teams yourself, go over to the master tables and look into their trending performances!
Portfolio Analysis Exposures
When you run 1,000 lineups into the portfolio manager and do some filtering, you end up with the above results. Some notes:
- Harrison/Myles is the clear pairing at SP on DK tonight, however, if going double pay up Harrison/Schlittler looks like the top duo.
- The Yankees and Rangers standout as two of the top main stacking options.
- COL faces the worst pitcher on the slate but are also a bad hitting team. Based on the exposures they are best used as mini-stacks or one-off options.
- It is worth noting that neither HOU or LAD are showing up with high exposure in the PM despite being the two top teams in the scoring percentages.
Thanks for reading, go grab some trophies.
