Welcome to the MLB Macro Minute! This is a short article focused on macro environments and trending teams. The goal here is to identify easy spots to focus or remove from slates and make DFS a bit easier.
If you have any questions or comments reach out to me in the discord or over on X for some more discussion
Macro Pitcher Stats
- GOATani stands out as the top arm in regards to True AVG and his median projection and ownership reflect that.
- Buehler stands out as the 3rd best True AVG. He also has a great matchup versus the woeful Giants in a pitchers park and is cheap at just $6k.
- Fedde is the stone worst but also faces the one of the worst hitting teams in baseball. Taillon is almost just as bad and is projecting to carry ownership – the Reds make a great leverage stack if Taillon is chalky. Lastly, the Whitesox look good again tonight and both sides of the CWS/LAA game are viable.
Macro Team Stats
- The Rangers are the top team tonight in the scoring percentages followed by the Cubs and Yankees.
- SEA and SFG are the only two teams with an 8+ under 20% tonight. Furthering the case for Buehler.
- LAD, CLE, MIL, CHW, STL, and STL are all worth consideration as well.
Trending Teams
The Yankees and Braves both have an eye-popping trending 8+ above 40% and also get good trending matchups tonight. Feel free to play them in all formats. The Guardians and Pirates also stand out in the trending tables as well as the Cubs and Dodgers. A good rule of thumb is to cross-reference the trending tables with the scoring percentages and go heavy on the teams that overlap.
If you want to research these teams yourself, go over to the master tables and look into their trending performances!
Portfolio Analysis Exposures
When you run 1,000 lineups into the portfolio manager and do some filtering, you end up with the above results. Some notes:
- It is a very concentrated pool of players tonight as far as exposure rates of 20% or higher. This is a good slate to take some strong stands.
- Ohtani/Buehler is the clear SP pairing on DK tonight.
- TEX is showing up as the priority stack as expected.
- Ramirez and Hoerner popping up as one-offs is an indicator of prioritizing higher priced/high-upside guys as your mini-stacks and one-offs on this slate. Texas is going to be low-owned and fairly low-cost.
Thanks for reading, go grab some trophies.
