Welcome to the MLB Macro Minute! This is a short article focused on macro environments and trending teams. The goal here is to identify easy spots to focus or remove from slates and make DFS a bit easier.
If you have any questions or comments reach out to me in the discord or over on X for some more discussion
Macro Pitcher Stats
- Sean Manaea leads the slate in True AVG, but be aware that he is projected to be the long-relief pitcher in that game. Avila also has a strong True AVG but is unlikely to go long as he’s just joining the starting rotation.
- Landen Roupp is the top True AVG pitcher that we should expect to both start and go as long as he can. Ryan, Hancock, Sheehan, and Soriano are the other top options to consider tonight.
- Sandlin and deGrom are the two starters with the worst True AVG on the slate. Lyon Richardson is also bad, but this is likely just a full bullpen game for the Reds.
Macro Team Stats
- The Dodgers, Rockies, and Mets all rate out well in the scoring percentages. The Dodgers are carrying ownership, but Rockies and Mets should be low-owned.
- The Angels are step below those top 3 teams but are slightly less boom or bust than the Rockies and Mets.
- STL rates out pretty poorly despite deGrom having such bad True AVG. However, if deGrom is chalk it’s still probably worth playing Cardinals for the leverage.
Trending Teams
Dodgers are the top trending team in addition to topping the scoring percentages. While the matchup isn’t particularly strong in regards to trending matchup 8+, ERod is susceptible to blow up games. The Mets and Rockies are next which is again aligned with the scoring percentages. However, it is worth noting the Rockies are coming off of a series in Coors. While LAA and CHW don’t have the top trending numbers, they do get the best trending matchups.
If you want to research these teams yourself, go over to the master tables and look into their trending performances!
Portfolio Analysis Exposures
When you run 1,000 lineups into the portfolio manager and do some filtering, you end up with the above results. Some notes:
- Joe Ryan is the top priority at pitcher. Even as chalk he still have high ownership edge.
- Soriano and Emerson Hancock are the top pairing with Ryan. If you are playing a low-owned stack feel free to eat chalk with Soriano, otherwise you can play Hancock at lower ownership.
- Both Hancock and the Mets look good tonight depending on the metrics. If you are playing multiple lineups this is definitely a hedge spot. In PM exposures Soto as a one-off is the main priority.
- Despite not being mentioned in either the scoring percentages or the trending tables, the models like KCR as a mini-stack option tonight.
Thanks for reading, go grab some trophies.
