Welcome to the MLB Macro Minute! This is a short article focused on macro environments and trending teams. The goal here is to identify easy spots to focus or remove from slates and make DFS a bit easier.
If you have any questions or comments reach out to me in the discord or over on X for some more discussion
Macro Pitcher Stats
- Mackenzie Gore leads the slate tonight for True AVG and gets a matchup with the Twins who definitely have some Ks in their lineup.
- Jared Jones, Cjase Burns, Dustin May, and [gulp] Lorenzen all have strong True AVG as well.
- The bottom three tonight are Lauer, Imanaga, and Melton. The Rockies look like a fantastic leverage spot against chalk Shota.
Macro Team Stats
- STL and LAD are the top two teams in scoring percentages. It’s worth noting that given the positional priorities and pricing of each stack those two likely fit well together
- The Angels, Astros, Cubs, and Tigers make up the next tier. After that you can make a case for everyone between COL and TBR if you really want to.
- CIN, TEX, and ARI are the clear spots to avoid if playing limited entries. They’re also probably only worth minimal exposure in MME sets as well.
Trending Teams
STL is also the top team in the trending models as well, followed by Angels and Dodgers. The Angels and Dodgers also have pretty strong trending matchups as well. HOU and DET are the other two teams worth calling out and a game stack isn’t the craziest idea in the world. Similar to the scoring percentages, CIN, ARI, and TEX are the bottom three trending teams.
If you want to research these teams yourself, go over to the master tables and look into their trending performances!
Portfolio Analysis Exposures
When you run 1,000 lineups into the portfolio manager and do some filtering, you end up with the above results. Some notes:
- Dustin May stands out as the top priority at SP on the slate. Even if his ownership creeps up he’s likely still fine given how high his edge% is.
- The models are highlighting two different paths at pitcher – spending up in which case the exposures favor Chase Burns, or spending down and eating chalk Gore.
- STL is far and away the top stack tonight. Multiple models are all coming to the same conclusion.
- The Cubs pop up in the exposures but likely make a better mini-stack option. The same could be said for the Dodgers just due to the pricing.
Thanks for reading, go grab some trophies.
