Welcome to the MLB Macro Minute! This is a short article focused on macro environments and trending teams. The goal here is to identify easy spots to focus or remove from slates and make DFS a bit easier.
If you have any questions or comments reach out to me in the discord or over on X for some more discussion
Macro Pitcher Stats
- Logan Webb, Paul Skenes, and Gavin Williams lead the slate in True AVG. Skenes has arguably the best matchup of the trio.
- Kolek and Rea are the worst True AVG pitchers tonight which puts CIN and ATH bats firmly in play.
- Cole, Ohtani, Burns, and Gore are all fine in regards to True AVG but nothing noteworthy. Keep that in mind as it relates to their pricing and how much salary you want to allocate to SP.
Macro Team Stats
- COL and ATL are the top teams in the scoring percentages. Each with over a 40% 8+ rate. However, unlike last night the Braves will carry much more ownership than they did last night.
- The next tier includes the Yankees, Angels, and Pirates. Of that group, the Pirates have the best matchup per True AVG.
- CLE, STL, and ARI are all teams that can be avoided outside of 20-max or MME builds.
Trending Teams
The Yankees have the top trending for numbers and one of the top trending matchups. This is largely why they rate out well despite the opposing pitcher’s True AVG. COL and LAA also have both strong trending for and trending matchups, aligning with the scoring percentages. Likewise, they are followed by ATL and PIT. In general there is a pretty strong consensus between the scoring percentages and trending tables tonight.
If you want to research these teams yourself, go over to the master tables and look into their trending performances!
Portfolio Analysis Exposures
When you run 1,000 lineups into the portfolio manager and do some filtering, you end up with the above results. Some notes:
- Gerrit Cole is the clear priority at SP tonight. Given his ceiling and current price his projected ownership is way to low. Even as “chalk” he has a massive edge%
- Holmes and Corbin are the only other pitchers that show up in at least 20% of lineups in the PM. This is a clear indication of spend down at SP2 and prioritize bats.
- Angels, Dodgers, and Rockies are all worth considering as full stacks based on the exposures.
- Despite not being mentioned in either the scoring percentages or the trending tables, the models like STL as a mini-stack option tonight. Particularly the HR upside of Herrera and Walker.
Thanks for reading, go grab some trophies.
