Welcome to the MLB Macro Minute! This is a short article focused on macro environments and trending teams. The goal here is to identify easy spots to focus or remove from slates and make DFS a bit easier.
If you have any questions or comments reach out to me in the discord or over on X for some more discussion
Macro Pitcher Stats
- Roupp and Schlittler are the top 2 True AVG pitchers tonight and both project to be popular. Either of them is a fine starting point at SP1.
- Buehler, Drohan, and Freeland are the next tier of arms with solid True AVG. That being said, it may be better to just avoid full stacking against them than to use them at SP2.
- Mikolas, Pfaadt, and Lauer are the bottom 3 pitchers on the slate in regards to True AVG. Astros bats vs Mikolas are expected to carry ownership but Rockies and/or Padres could be solid contrarian options for large field GPPs.
Macro Team Stats
- WAS is the top stack tonight in both 8+ and Top Score%. Just make sure to keep an eye on the weather reports as it looks like steady rain. The silver lining is that seems to be keeping ownership supressed.
- COL is the next team to consider. Just note that the majority of this projection is rooted in how bad Lauer is and not on the talent of the Rockies. Except Goodman, and Carrigg – them boys good. HOU, STL, ATL, and LAD are the third tier of stacks to consider. Everyone after that is fairly mid. Of this group, LAD and HOU are projected as the chalk so a ATL or STL main stack with LAD/HOU pieces filling in is a way to get different without being too volatile a build.
- The Yankees and Giants look like easy avoids in SE and limited entries. Even in MME sets you probably want to keep the exposure down. The only caveat is Griffin Jax looks like chalk so playing leverage Yankees in GPPs isn’t completely crazy.
Trending Teams
WAS is the top trending team with the top trending matchup. The only real knock against them is weather concerns with the game. Assuming it plays and the rain keeps ownership in check they look like a great option tonight. The Rockies are also trending well but keep in mind they are coming off a home series in Coors and are now on the road. On the other side of that game the Dodgers are a top trending team but they will be high owned. ATL would be the other team to call out with a strong combination of trending for and trending matchup. MIL, NYY, SFG, and SDP all have abysmal trending numbers and trending matchups.
If you want to research these teams yourself, go over to the master tables and look into their trending performances!
Portfolio Analysis Exposures
When you run 1,000 lineups into the portfolio manager and do some filtering, you end up with the above results. Some notes:
- The models are not high on ultra-spend up Cam Schlittler and the exposures favor the cheaper alternatives in Jax and Roupp if going with chalk pitching.
- Shane Drohan pops up quite a bit and is a strong pivot to Griffin Jax if you need to get different in your lineups.
- The priority stacks based in PM exposure rates are WAS and COL. Altuve from HOU is a strong one-off at the ever rough 2B position.
- The Dodgers are not showing up as much in the PM exposures but that’s largely due to their prices. This goes with what was mentioned earlier about using them as a mini-stack or one-off options. However, the models do like multiple SPs under $8k so playing them both to spend up on a full LAD stack is an option.
Thanks for reading, go grab some trophies.
