Welcome to the MLB Macro Minute! This is a short article focused on macro environments and trending teams. The goal here is to identify easy spots to focus or remove from slates and make DFS a bit easier.
If you have any questions or comments reach out to me in the discord or over on X for some more discussion
Macro Pitcher Stats
- Ignoring opener Steven Cruz, the top True AVG pitchers on tonight’s slate are Burns and Gore. Unsurprisingly, they are also projecting as the highest owned pitchers. Good chalk, but be mindful of your total lineup ownership.
- The next tier in consideration includes Harrison, Urena, Prielipp, and Scott. Urena in particular is an interesting pivot to chalk Gore on the other side of that matchup.
- Hughes, Sasaki, and Keller are the bottom 3 pitchers for True AVG tonight. Dobnak and McGreevy are honorable mentions. You can consider attacking any of these pitchers with bats and a COL/LAD gamestack is interesting for GPPs.
Macro Team Stats
- NYM is the top stack tonight in both 8+ and Top Score%. While they are projected to have ownership most of that will be concentrated on Soto/Lindor/Polanco.
- KCR, LAD, MIN, and BOS are the next tier of teams to consider full stacking. Additionally, KCR, MIN, and BOS are cheap and can pretty easily be played with the chalk pitching combo.
- As noted earlier, CIN looks like bad chalk. Reds, Angels, WhiteSox, and Cards all project poorly tonight.
Trending Teams
MIN and LAD are the top trending teams with the Dodgers having the better trending matchup of the two. Aside from them, the Royals, Mets, RedSox, and Rangers are all trending well. We also just saw the Royals/Mets go to the moon last night so expect some elevated ownership due to box score chasers. The Reds have a great matchup in what is expected to be a bullpen game but they also have been trending terribly – be cautious with them depending on their ownership. SDP, LAA, and CLE are the bottom 3 trending teams and can likely be avoided for SE and limited entries.
If you want to research these teams yourself, go over to the master tables and look into their trending performances!
Portfolio Analysis Exposures
When you run 1,000 lineups into the portfolio manager and do some filtering, you end up with the above results. Some notes:
- The models are pretty clear that you should just eat the Gore chalk and Burns is the high-owned fade
- Kyle Harrison is the pivot off of Burns if spending up at both pitchers and Scott, Bennett or Prielipp are the cheap SP2s.
- The priority stacks based on PM exposure rates are Mets and Padres
- The Dodgers are not showing up as much in the PM exposures but that’s largely due to their prices. Once again the models do like multiple SPs under $8k so playing them both to spend up on a full LAD stack is an option tonight. In small field getting some exposure to Dodgers whether a mini-stack or one-off can help lower your volatility.
Thanks for reading, go grab some trophies.
