Welcome to the MLB Macro Minute! This is a short article focused on macro environments and trending teams. The goal here is to identify easy spots to focus or remove from slates and make DFS a bit easier.
If you have any questions or comments reach out to me in the discord or over on X for some more discussion
Macro Pitcher Stats
- Payton Tolle and Matthew Liberatore are the top True AVG pitchers on the slate tonight. Liberatore is particularly interesting at a very cheap price versus the projected chalk bats, and as a direct price pivot of off chalk Imai.
- The next tier in consideration includes Urena, Fried, and Burns. Of those three, Fried projects the best by a pretty wide margin. At a price of $11.3k and with high ownership it’s hard to justify Burns tonight.
- Perez, Peterson, and Thornton are the bottom three True AVG pitchers on slate. STL at low ownership on the other side of chalk Cubs seems like a solid GPP play. Additionally, both sides of the Mets/Braves game are in play.
Macro Team Stats
- MIL and CHC are the clear top stacks in 8+ and Top Score % tonight.
- After a pretty steep drop off the next best teams to target are the Mets, Giants, RedSox, and Astros.
- LAA, NYY, and CIN are the bottom 3 teams in the scoring percentages, however, NYY and CIN do have some of the highest ceiling outcomes on the slate. LAA is legit trash though, aside from a pure leverage play they can be avoided in all formats.
Trending Teams
The Cubs, Brewers, and ChiSox are the top trending teams on the slate. The Cubs and ChiSox also have the two best trending 8+ matchups as well. That said, CHW is facing one of the top projected pitchers so it’s more likely that any damage done is done against the bullpen. HOU and ATH are the only other semi-noteworthy teams in regards to trending numbers. LAA remains trash when it comes to trending numbers as well.
If you want to research these teams yourself, go over to the master tables and look into their trending performances!
Portfolio Analysis Exposures
When you run 1,000 lineups into the portfolio manager and do some filtering, you end up with the above results. Some notes:
- The models are pretty clear that a Fried/Tolle SP combo is the way to go tonight.
- Even in small field contests you can consider fading the chalk pitchers on this slate as they have very low exposure rates.
- Reds and Mets are the priority stacks and you can consider Yankees/Redsox for mini-stacks or one-offs
- Individually the Cubs bats rate well so if you want to mix them in to your lineups to lower the overall volatility that is perfectly viable in smaller field contests. MIL also rates well but they are pricey which is limiting their exposure rates as a full stack.
Thanks for reading, go grab some trophies.
