MLB Early Slate Models and Sims Breakdown
We have a 5 game MLB slate on tap starting at 4:05 EST on Draftkings and I wanted to take a look at the models and sims to see what spots we should be focusing on. Let’s first take a look at the Range of Outcomes….
Stacks
- At time of writing, we have a little log jam at the top with the Athletics, Nationals, and Orioles as the top 3 teams most likely to score 8 or more runs today.
- Based on current ownership, the Athletics and Orioles look like positive leverage at their ownership and the Nationals appear to be negative leverage.
- The Mets (lol, I know) and Marlins are showing as positive leverage stacks on the slate at time of writing and the White Sox and Red Sox look like stacks we want to avoid
Pitchers
- Drew Rasmussen has the highest median projection, then followed by Trevor Williams, Martin Perez, and our guy Dick Fitts
- Williams and Perez are the two most likely to at least 2x their salary and at time of writing, it seems like we should be avoiding Alcantara at that ownership
- We’ll confirm in the sims who we should be targeting for the contests we’re playing but as of now, we should not be paying up for Sandy and we should be paying down. Meaning we could afford expensive bats
Contest Sims
Let’s take a look at what the sims want us to play in small field, high dollar contests….
- As expected, we should be using some combination of Wiliams, Rasmussen, Perez, and Dick Fitts
- Alcantara and David Peterson are pretty big negative leverage pieces, so we should be avoiding in small field and opting to use other pitchers
- This is all subject to change so please rerun around 3-330PM to see if anything’s changed
- The Nationals are a strong stack to consider in small field followed by Baltimore. The Nats are so far ahead that you probably want to start your 5 man with them and then look to mini stack BAL