This is a recurring post giving some macro information about the NBA DFS main slate utilizing the Paydirt Range of Outcomes. We are currently testing out a couple different formats and using algorithms to write it, so if you have feedback please let us know!
You can find the NBA Range of Outcomes here if you want to see the full model
NBA Ceiling Data Breakdown
- LaMelo Ball (PG, CHA): With a salary of $10,200, Ball is projected for 35.34 minutes, has a median score of 53.49 and a ceiling of 72.33. He shows a very high probability of reaching a 20+% scoring performance (0.99), indicating a high potential for a top finish, as well as high probability in a 4x, 5x, or 6x performance.
- Anthony Davis (C, LAL): Priced at $10,500, Davis is projected for 33.46 minutes with a median of 51.93 and a ceiling of 70.3. While Davis is projected to do well and has a very high probability of a 20+% performance, he is projected to have a slightly lower likelihood of a top finish compared to LaMelo Ball.
- Tyrese Maxey (PG, PHI): Maxey is priced at $9,800 with a projected 37.7 minutes played, a median of 50.47 and a ceiling of 69.9. His projections suggest a very high likelihood of a 20+% performance, similar to Ball and Davis.
- Karl-Anthony Towns (C, NYK): With a salary of $9,700, Towns is projected for 33.45 minutes, a median of 50.34 and a ceiling of 68.7. He also shows very high probabilities of strong performances (20+%, 4x, 5x, and 6x).
- Trae Young (PG, ATL): At $9,600, Young is projected for 35.56 minutes with a median score of 49.11 and a ceiling of 68. He has similar probability of a 20+%, 4x, 5x, and 6x performance as Towns, with slightly lower projections.
NBA GPP Data Breakdown
- Malik Monk (PG/SG, SAC): Priced at $7,200, Monk is projected for 32.28 minutes, with a median of 38.17 and a ceiling of 56.24. He shows a high probability of a strong performance and is a great value at this price point. He has a relatively high projected ownership at 16.26.
- Nick Richards (C, PHO): At a low price of $5,100, Richards is projected for 24.99 minutes with a median of 30.22 and a ceiling of 46.47. While his median and ceiling are not as high as other players, his low price makes him a good option for GPP contests with very little risk. He has a low projected ownership of 7.69.
- RJ Barrett (SF, TOR): Barrett is priced at $7,800, with 32.68 projected minutes, a median of 41.71 and a ceiling of 59.88. Barrett is a solid value pick at this price point and also has a relatively high projected ownership of 13.57.
- Nikola Vucevic (C, CHI): With a salary of $8,100, Vucevic is projected for 31.35 minutes with a median of 42.27 and a ceiling of 60.11. His probabilities of a top performance are low, and his projected ownership is a moderate 11.12.
- Scottie Barnes (PG/SF, TOR): Priced at $9,000, Barnes is projected for 34.18 minutes, a median of 46.67 and a ceiling of 65.22. While his salary is relatively high, his performance metrics and relatively high ownership of 13.15 make him a reasonable choice for GPP contests.
NBA High Owned Data Breakdown
- Moussa Diabate (C, CHA): Diabate is the highest owned player in this group at 67.44% with a salary of $3000, he is projected for 25.97 minutes, a median of 20.97 and a ceiling of 37.46. While his floor, median, and ceiling are not very high, his low salary and very high ownership make him a key player in most contests.
- Miles Bridges (PF, CHA): With a salary of $7,400, Bridges is the second highest owned player at 30.72% with a projected 32.44 minutes, a median of 39.39 and a ceiling of 57.5. He has very high probabilities of a 20+%, 4x, 5x, and 6x performance.
- LaMelo Ball (PG, CHA): At a salary of $10,200, Ball is projected for 35.34 minutes, a median of 53.49 and a ceiling of 72.33. He shows high probabilities of good performances and is also very highly owned at 22.62%.
- Paul George (SG/SF, PHI): George is priced at $8,200 with a projected 33.58 minutes, a median of 38.83, and a ceiling of 57.23. His ownership is projected to be 19.06, along with strong probabilities of a 20+% and 4x performance.
- Malik Monk (PG/SG, SAC): At $7,200, Monk is projected for 32.28 minutes, a median of 38.17, and a ceiling of 56.24. He has the fifth highest ownership at 16.26%.
Summary Table
| Player | Source | Position | Salary | Minutes | Median | Ceiling | Ownership |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LaMelo Ball | Ceiling | PG | 10200 | 35.34 | 53.49 | 72.33 | 22.62 |
| Anthony Davis | Ceiling | C | 10500 | 33.46 | 51.93 | 70.3 | 6.34 |
| Tyrese Maxey | Ceiling | PG | 9800 | 37.7 | 50.47 | 69.9 | 9.25 |
| Karl-Anthony Towns | Ceiling | C | 9700 | 33.45 | 50.34 | 68.7 | 8.62 |
| Trae Young | Ceiling | PG | 9600 | 35.56 | 49.11 | 68 | 8.19 |
| Malik Monk | GPP | PG/SG | 7200 | 32.28 | 38.17 | 56.24 | 16.26 |
| Nick Richards | GPP | C | 5100 | 24.99 | 30.22 | 46.47 | 7.69 |
| RJ Barrett | GPP | SF | 7800 | 32.68 | 41.71 | 59.88 | 13.57 |
| Nikola Vucevic | GPP | C | 8100 | 31.35 | 42.27 | 60.11 | 11.12 |
| Scottie Barnes | GPP | PG/SF | 9000 | 34.18 | 46.67 | 65.22 | 13.15 |
| Moussa Diabate | High Owned | C | 3000 | 25.97 | 20.97 | 37.46 | 67.44 |
| Miles Bridges | High Owned | PF | 7400 | 32.44 | 39.39 | 57.5 | 30.72 |
| LaMelo Ball | High Owned | PG | 10200 | 35.34 | 53.49 | 72.33 | 22.62 |
| Paul George | High Owned | SG/SF | 8200 | 33.58 | 38.83 | 57.23 | 19.06 |
| Malik Monk | High Owned | PG/SG | 7200 | 32.28 | 38.17 | 56.24 | 16.26 |