NBA DFS Algo Orientation: DFS Picks and Plays

NBA DFS Slate Analysis

This is an algorithmically generated breakdown of the NBA DFS main slate using the models found at Paydirt. You’ll get high level information about the most valuable players on the slate along with a handy table to use for your own lineups. For more projections and model data check out the NBA DFS Range of Outcomes and the NBA Contest Simulations.

Ceiling Data Breakdown

Nikola Jokic (C, DEN): With a very high salary of $12900, Jokic is projected for 38.35 minutes. His median projection is extremely high at 70.47 fantasy points, with a ceiling of 90.06. He has a very high top finish probability of 43% and a top 5 finish probability of 77%
Luka Doncic (PG, LAL): With a high salary of $12000, Doncic is projected for 39.75 minutes. His median projection is 61.68 fantasy points, with a ceiling of 81.62. He has a top finish probability of 21% and a top 5 finish probability of 62%
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (PG, OKC): With a high salary of $11000, Shai is projected for 37.28 minutes. His median projection is 59.5 fantasy points, with a ceiling of 78.82. He has a top finish probability of 13% and a top 5 finish probability of 57%
Jayson Tatum (SF/PF, BOS): With a high salary of $10300, Tatum is projected to play 36.39 minutes. He has a median projection of 53.03 fantasy points and a ceiling of 72.13. His probabilities for achieving value are 99% for 4x and 77% for 5x
Trae Young (PG, ATL): Priced at $9700, Young is projected to play 36.22 minutes. His median projection is 49.77 fantasy points, with a ceiling of 68.83. He has a 99% probability of achieving 4x value and a 79% probability of 5x

GPP Data Breakdown

Dante Exum (PG/SF, DAL): At a salary of $4200, Exum is projected for 23.3 minutes. His median projection is 23.32 fantasy points, with a ceiling of 39.15. He has a 69% probability of hitting 4x value and 80% for 5x.
Max Christie (SG, DAL): Priced at $5400, Christie is projected to play 35.19 minutes. His median projection is 28.81 fantasy points, with a ceiling of 47.61. He has a 90% chance of hitting 4x value and 82% for 5x.
Orlando Robinson (C, TOR): With a salary of $3700, Robinson is projected for 25.23 minutes. His median projection is 24.11 fantasy points, with a ceiling of 40.42. He has a 76% probability of hitting 4x value, 91% for 5x, and 79% for 6x.
Vince Williams (SG/SF, MEM): At a salary of $3800, Williams is projected for 24.94 minutes. His median projection is 22.23 fantasy points, with a ceiling of 38.47. He has a 66% probability of hitting 4x value and 86% for 5x
Russell Westbrook (PG, DEN): At a lower salary of $5500, Westbrook is projected for 32.18 minutes. His median projection is 32.6 fantasy points, with a ceiling of 50.65. He has probabilities of 94% for 4x value and 88% for 5x

High Owned Data Breakdown

Lonnie Walker IV (SG, PHI): With a salary of $3600, Walker is projected to play around 30.83 minutes. His median fantasy score is projected at 31.33, with a ceiling of 49.04. He has a 92% probability of achieving 4x value, 97% for 5x, and 94% for 6x, making him a strong GPP option with a GPP% of 86% and projected ownership of 39.33%.
Naji Marshall (SF/PF, DAL): Priced at $6800, Marshall is expected to play 38.56 minutes. His median projection is 43.33 fantasy points, with a ceiling of 62.97. He has a 98% chance of hitting 4x value, 91% for 5x, and 76% for 6x, indicating solid potential.
Jared Butler (PG/SG, PHI): At a salary of $4000, Butler is projected for 24.44 minutes of play. His median fantasy score is 30.93, with a ceiling of 47.04. Butler’s probabilities for achieving value are 93% for 4x, 96% for 5x, and 91% for 6x.
Desmond Bane (SG, MEM): With a $7900 salary, Bane is projected to play 34.49 minutes. His median projection is 45.19 fantasy points, and he has a ceiling of 63.81. He has a 99% probability of hitting 4x value, 88% for 5x, and 66% for 6x.
RJ Barrett (SG/SF, TOR): Priced at $7400, Barrett is projected for 30.02 minutes. His median projection is 35.42 fantasy points, with a ceiling of 52.93. He has a 96% chance of hitting 4x value and 71% for 5x