Below is an overview of using correlation and stacking to build thoughtful lineups for NBA DFS.
You can find the NBA Range of Outcomes here if you want to see the full model.
NBA Correlation
Building correlated lineups is a key strategy in NBA DFS to increase the chances of winning tournaments. This concept involves selecting players who are likely to benefit from each other’s performance.
One common approach to achieve this is through game stacking. This focuses on picking players from the same game. While the impact of stacking teammates in NBA DFS is not as substantial as in sports with more event-driven scoring, game stacking provides the advantage of increased playing time for selected players.
This increased playing time can result from a few scenarios:
- Overtime: This gives players an extra five minutes to accumulate stats. Historically, about 5-7% of NBA games go into overtime.
- Competitive Games: Close games tend to keep starters on the court longer, leading to more opportunities for fantasy points.
- Blowouts in Other Games: If several games on a slate become non-competitive, the rotations in those games will spread out minutes among bench players. [3] This means that players in the remaining close games, including your stacked players, will have more opportunities compared to the field.
Key Considerations
- Don’t Solely Rely on Totals: While high-total games often lead to more fantasy points, they also attract higher ownership. Additionally, the favorable game environment is often already factored into player salaries
- Seek Value: The most effective game stacks involve players who are undervalued, providing a margin for error even if the game doesn’t go into overtime. This often happens with teams impacted by injuries, where pricing may not have adjusted to reflect increased roles for certain players.
- Consider Combined Cost: Stacking high-priced players like LeBron James and Anthony Davis can be risky because they might cannibalize each other’s stats. Such stacks often need an overtime period to be truly successful
- Slate Size: Game stacking is most effective on mid-size slates (4-6 games). On larger slates, the impact of blowouts on your stacked game is less significant.
- Prioritize Spreads over Totals: Focus on games expected to be close, but also consider the potential for blowouts in other games on the slate. The more paths to finding excess value in your stacked game, the better.
Additional Considerations
In addition to game stacking, another way to leverage correlation is by capitalizing on under-owned players in games with high-projected ceilings. For instance, if one team is heavily favored, their star players may be popular choices. However, if the opposing team’s stars have low projected ownership, they could offer significant leverage. This is because a close game, which would benefit the chalky players, would also boost the ceiling of the less-owned players on the underdog team.
Summary
Remember to be mindful of the total salary invested in a single game or team. Over-concentrating your lineup in one place can limit your ability to diversify and capture upside from other games.
By understanding these principles of correlation and applying them thoughtfully, you can create NBA DFS lineups that maximize your chances of success in tournaments.