Welcome to the NBA Macro Minute! This is a short article focused on macro environments and trending players. The goal here is to identify easy spots to focus or remove from slates and make DFS a bit easier.
If you have any questions or comments reach out to me in the discord or over on X for some more discussion
Macro NBA Defensive Stats
- WAS is on the 2nd half of a b2b after allowing 125 real life points to the Warriors. They remain the worst defensive team on the slate allowing 1.09 FPPM to opponents
- After WAS, IND and MIL are the next best teams to attack tonight.
- There are a lot more competent teams playing tonight as only 3 are allowing over a FPPM to opposing offenses. Taking advantage of late news and not chasing shaky chalk will be key tonight.
Macro NBA Combo Stats
- WAS/DET and MIL/CLE are the only game environments with combined FPPM rate above 1. That said, they aren’t drastically higher than other games on the slate so no need to go overboard.
- NYK/IND doesn’t jump off the page but there is some significant injury news that could open up a ton of value. On the Knicks side Brunson is doubtful and Mitch Robinson is Q. On the Pacers side Siakam is doubtful and a handful of other players are all questionable at the time of this writing.
- CHA/MIA is the worst combined game environment on the slate, however, Wiggins is out and Bam is doubtful so there may be some opportunity on the MIA side.
Trending Players
As of now Jordan Clarkson stands out as one of the top value options. Mitchell Robinson is another value Knick but make sure he’s playing. Despite being down bodies and a top game environment, Julian Reese is the only Wizard that is popping as ceiling value but hard to get excited there. Jalen Green, Max Strus, and Wendell Carter Jr. all look like strong mid-range options with upside at their respective prices.
If you want to research these dudes yourself, go over to the gamelogs tool and look into their rotations and performances!
Portfolio Analysis Exposures
When you run 1,000 lineups into the portfolio manager and do some filtering, you end up with the above results. Some notes:
- A note on Max Strus: there is some small sample size shenanigans happening. However, there are guys missing tonight and it’s a great matchup. He’s still a solid midrange play, but temper expectations a tad.
- Jalen Duren gets the nuts matchup versus Washington and even at 20% projected ownership is still one of the highest edge plays on the slate.
- Your core tonight is something like Ware/Ayo/Booker + NYK Guard
Thanks for reading, go grab some trophies.
