Welcome to the NBA Macro Minute! This is a short article focused on macro environments and trending players. The goal here is to identify easy spots to focus or remove from slates and make DFS a bit easier.
If you have any questions or comments reach out to me in the discord or over on X for some more discussion
Macro NBA Defensive Stats
- If WAS is on the slate you can just assume they are the worst defense on the board. They are allowing 1.08 FPPM to opposing teams.
- CHI is the only other team tonight allowing over a FPPM to opponents.
- DET, PHX, and CHA are allowing the fewest FPPM to opposing teams tonight. However, ORL is missing some key players so there is some opportunity despite the poor matchup with CHA. Additionally, Wemby is always an option regardless of opponent so feel free to play him versus PHX.
Macro NBA Combo Stats
- WAS/DET is the top game environment tonight and we just saw this same matchup a couple nights ago. Even without Cade DET should have their way tonight.
- CHI/CLE is the next best matchup and currently Donovan Mitchell is questionable and Jarrett Allen remains out. Pay attention to injury news as this could be a priority spot.
- SAS/PHX is tied with CHA/ORL as the worst matchup on the slate. However, Wemby is always an option. On the other side the Suns are without Mark Williams so Ighodaro should get plenty of minutes albeit in an awful matchup.
Trending Players
Jeremiah Fears looks like a strong value option with Dejounte Murray out. Marcus Smart also shows up as a high ceiling value and LeBron, Luka, and Reaves are all questionable. Aside from those 2 Ighodaro and Tristan da Silva look like decent midrange options with their respective teams missing some key guys tonight.
If you want to research these dudes yourself, go over to the gamelogs tool and look into their rotations and performances!
Portfolio Analysis Exposures
When you run 1,000 lineups into the portfolio manager and do some filtering, you end up with the above results. Some notes:
- Goga Bitadze is projected to be heavy chalk with Wendell Carter Jr. out. The matchup isn’t great so this is really just based on price + opportunity. Worth noting Goga is a strong FPPM player.
- Jalen Duren gets the nuts matchup versus Washington (again) and at his projected ownership is the the highest edge play on the slate.
- Your core tonight is something like Goga/Duren/Fears + Kawhi (if playing) or Kris Dunn (if Kawhi is out)
Thanks for reading, go grab some trophies.
