Welcome to the NBA Macro Minute! This is a short article focused on macro environments and trending players. The goal here is to identify easy spots to focus or remove from slates and make DFS a bit easier.
If you have any questions or comments reach out to me in the discord or over on X for some more discussion
Macro NBA Defensive Stats
- DAL leads the slate in FPPM allowed at a rate of 1.08 to opposing offenses. MEM and IND are the next worst defenses.
- UTA and CHI are both worth targeting as well. UTA is giving up the most 3 point attempts per minute, and CHI is tied for the most field goal attempts given up per minute.
- ATL, DET, and OKC are allowing the fewest FPPM in that order. MEM might still have some value guys that be ok vs ATL, and Luka is always in play as the Lakers face DET. PHI versus OKC might warrant a full fade though.
Macro NBA Combo Stats
- DAL/GSW is the top game environment tonight at a combined 1.03 FPPM.
- Based on combined FPPM ORL/IND is the 2nd best matchup tonight, however, that is largely due to how bad IND is. ORL gets a great spot, but the IND side is far less appealing.
- DET/LAL is the worst combined FPPM on the slate which likely makes this a Luka or none spot for the Lakers.
Trending Players
Jared McCain revenge TikTok? The models think so. Some ok values options tonight, but it’s the midrange that really stands out for ceiling value. Brice Sensabaugh and Ace Bailey from the Jazz, as well as Naji Marshall and Reed Sheppard all have upside at their current prices. On the high end, Bam is popping but the matchup certainly isn’t ideal.
If you want to research these dudes yourself, go over to the gamelogs tool and look into their rotations and performances!
Portfolio Analysis Exposures
When you run 1,000 lineups into the portfolio manager and do some filtering, you end up with the above results. Some notes:
- Four Orlando Magic players with exposure rates above 20%. If you do play multiple (especially including Banchero), playing a Pacer makes sense as the upside is greater if IND can keep it close.
- Several Memphis players show up with high exposure rates. As noted above, even in a tougher matchup the Grizzlies have just been thin resulting in guys being underpriced relative to projections.
- Your core tonight is something like Jevon Carter + another Magic with Javon Small/Kennedy Chandler
Thanks for reading, go grab some trophies.
