Welcome to the NBA Macro Minute! This is a short article focused on macro environments and trending players. The goal here is to identify easy spots to focus or remove from slates and make DFS a bit easier.
If you have any questions or comments reach out to me in the discord or over on X for some more discussion
Macro NBA Defensive Stats
- WAS is allowing the most FPPM of any team on the slate and are on the 2nd half of a b2b.
- The Hornets are allowing the fewest FPPM of any team on the slate. Additionally, they get a matchup vs DAL who is allowing the 2nd most FPPM to opponents.
- CHI, MEM, and PHI are all teams worth targeting against. While NYK, DET, and ORL are teams to avoid picking on fantasy-wise.
Macro NBA Combo Stats
- ORL/WAS stands out as one of the top game environments. However, keep in mind that while WAS is awful defensively, ORL is not. You likely want to prioritize the Magic side of this matchup.
- CLE/DET and TOR/NYK look like decent spots to fade outside of the high usage/high upside guys.
- There’s no clear top game environment as ORL/WAS, CHI/OKC, MIA/BKN, PHI/SAS, and MIN/MEM are all about the same. A good way to approach it is to focus on the closer spreads and lower owned spots.
Trending Players
Jalen Duren immediately stands out as an elite C play tonight. On the value end, no punts are showing up as strong ceiling options but there are plenty of options in the $4k range. Lastly there’s still some strong ceiling value in the midrange, particularly at the $5k tier.
If you want to research these dudes yourself, go over to the gamelogs tool and look into their rotations and performances!
Portfolio Analysis Exposures
When you run 1,000 lineups into the portfolio manager and do some filtering, you end up with the above results. Some notes:
- Tyrese Maxey is the only spend up that shows up with an exposure rate over 20%. Also, his teammate Quentin Grimes is the worst edge play on the slate if he ends up as chalk.
- Multiple WAS guys are popping up with high exposure but be cautious of both the rotation and the matchup. Notably, no ORL players are popping on the other side.
- Your core tonight is something like 2 WAS + Cason Wallace and Maxey
Thanks for reading, go grab some trophies.
