Welcome to the NBA Macro Minute! This is a short article focused on macro environments and trending players. The goal here is to identify easy spots to focus or remove from slates and make DFS a bit easier.
If you have any questions or comments reach out to me in the discord or over on X for some more discussion
Macro NBA Defensive Stats
- Late season NBA and tanking season is in full-effect with multiple teams giving up over a FPPM to opponents. BKN being the worst at 1.05 FPPM allowed.
- The Knicks and Clippers are allowing the fewest FPPM on the slate and are playing each other
- PHI, MEM, UTA, DEN, and GSW all worth attacking tonight. Play who you want lol.
Macro NBA Combo Stats
- Pricing and game theory aside, BKN/MEM should be a priority game environment to target.
- Outside of the clear high-usage guys like Brunson, Kawhi, etc… you can mostly avoid LAC/NYK.
- UTA has already ruled some guys out and downgraded others. They will likely be chalk but the spot is good for both them and GSW on the otherside.
Trending Players
While this is a shorter list tonight this doesn’t necessarily mean there aren’t a lot of value options. It is more indicative of the fact that a lot of these players are just priced appropriately relative to their ceiling. Keep that in mind as you evaluate some of the higher owned plays tonight. Cam Spencer and Jaylin Williams are the two standouts, and you can likely boost Cody Williams presuming more Jazz players get ruled out.
If you want to research these dudes yourself, go over to the gamelogs tool and look into their rotations and performances!
Portfolio Analysis Exposures
When you run 1,000 lineups into the portfolio manager and do some filtering, you end up with the above results. Some notes:
- MEM, GSW, BKN all showing up in optimals at a high rate and all with pretty high ownership.
- Jokic looks the priority spend up tonight. Meanwhile, chalk Grimes continues to rate as one of the worst decisions you can make in DFS.
- Your core tonight is something like Javon Small + Jokic with a mix of midrange/value guys from BKN/GSW
Thanks for reading, go grab some trophies.
