Welcome to the Paydirt NFL DFS main slate breakdown! This article will go over some of the most important aspects of the NFL DFS main slate. It’ll typically include things like team totals, popular plays, and important stacks. The content of this is mostly geared towards Draftkings but is plenty applicable to Fanduel as well. Likewise, this article goes over the slate based on the range of outcomes models for NFL found here at Paydirt, so if you are interested in the same data we use, grab a subscription today!
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NFL DFS main slate breakdown:
Team stats, rates, and touchdown projections
- The highest team total on the slate is DET at 27.25 while the lowest is NYG at 15.75.
- The highest expected pass TDs goes to HOU, MIN, and TB at 1.58, 1.55, and 1.54.
- The highest expected rush TDs goes to DET by a longshot at 1.57, with the second highest at 1.26 for SF.
- The highest game total is TB/ARI at 51.50 with the second highest being NO/PHI at 49.50.
Here are the top 10 overall stacks in median projection:
We actually have a pretty nice spread of medians and no big deviations from the field with QB+2s. In the top 10 we have two MIN/DET combos but otherwise have a single representative from each set of three. We also have, for the most part, muted ownership on all of these stacks.
Sorting by team total:
Again, we have a nice spread and no big deviations here with team totals. That said, we do have some interesting differences in both price and ownership across these groups. For instance, the highest owned combo this week is likely to be Purdy/Aiyuk/Jennings with a projected sum ownership of 46.46. The price and projection there is fine, but for 18% sum ownership you have Jackson/Bateman/Andrews with nearly the same team total and a median projection just 5 points lower.
Another thing that sticks out: NO stacks are still just way too cheap. Even the expensive option of Carr/Shaheed/Olave is just $17,400 and has the highest projection on the slate. Even if Olave hasn’t had an explosion game in the first two weeks, he did have 40% of the targetshare in week 2 along with 56% of the air yards which are just gaudy numbers. It’s hard to argue with how good of a value NO is this week even before you start looking at a matchup against a pass funnel defense.
The main stacks that are high in the medians but not in the top team totals are MIN and PHI. The Vikings get a great median mostly because of Justin Jefferson, but in the first two weeks Darnold has put up 15.6 and 20.9 fantasy points to go with a 72% completion percentage. It’s also nice to have Jalen Nailor as a WR2 on that team who is really cheap and had a 97% route participation in week 2 (aided by Jefferson injury) along with 32% of the air yards.
Based on all the macro stuff I think for me it’s going to be NO, MIN, and SF as main stack options. There is a lot of freedom here but I prefer paying down for my stack and those three are the right combo of upside and value. Secondary stacks looking like HOU/ARI/DET.
Highest projected ownership
Note: This is being written on Saturday afternoon, I’ll update the image/thoughts in the morning if we have significant movement.
- Mason was 60% owned last week, I don’t think he gets that high again, but 50% would make sense.
- There are three SF/NO players projected for top 10 ownership.
- Cam Akers is going to be the other mega chalk this week with no Joe Mixon.
Only main site differences here are Nico Collins and Trey McBride being top 10 in ownership over on Fanduel instead of Devonta Smith and Jauan Jennings.
We are getting a lot of ownership on SF and NO players here. Derek Carr is projecting for something like 10-12% ownership but Brock Purdy is likely to be getting no more than 5-7%. Similarly to last week with LAR stacks, I think SF stacks are some of the best options for garnering upside and relative value. Going with Purdy/Aiyuk/Jennings and fading Jordan Mason is going to put you in a good position for a top 1% finish. NO stacks give you a bit less relative value as Kamara will be half as owned Mason and Carr will be twice as owned as Purdy, but the same concept applies here.
Something I did last week that I think would be in play for this week: I want access to all of Purdy/Aiyuk/Jennings/Mason and Carr/Shaheed/Olave/Kamara, I think all of them are good plays, but I want to be smart about hedging with them. I want one lineup with Kamara and another lineup with Carr/Shaheed/Olave. I also want one lineup with Mason and one lineup with Purdy/Aiyuk/Jennings. That way I’m covering my bases while spreading my volatility around.
Cam Akers is a sub 5k RB who is going to have 55-65% of the carries and 5-7% of the targets and just seems like a pretty easy spot. That said, Dameon Pierce is going to eat into those carries a bit and I would not call Akers immune to game script as Ogunbowale is going to take more of the targets. I’m still on the fence here.
There’s a lot of good chalk here. It’ll be another week where it’s important to eat it in good ways to find a couple lower owned ringer plays to pull you into the top.
Undervalued options
Running Backs: Saquon Barkley, Kyren Williams, Aaron Jones
- Saquon has the best usage in the league and is only $200 more than Kamara who is looking to have about 4x the ownership. He’s the definition of a smart pivot.
- Kyren Williams is going to be about 1% owned BUT his usage is elite, with expected fantasy points of 19.93 per game and a utilization score based expectation of 16.30 per game. If SF isn’t able to pull away quickly he is going to touch the ball 25+ times.
- Aaron Jones doesn’t have the same usage as Williams (58% snapshare vs. 83%, only 49% of the rushing attempts) but he has similar expected fantasy points at 19 and a solid projection at now ownership.
I don’t think that any of these guys really deserve ownership as low as we are seeing, and find that if you are playing larger fields or have an exceptionally chalky lineup all of them are easy to access in general build paths.
Wide Receivers: Justin Jefferson, Ceedee Lamb, Davante Adams
I don’t think I need give too many notes here: People aren’t giving enough attention to the elite WRs this week. All of these guys are likely to be less than 10% owned and are getting incredible usage. It helps that I have interest in stacking MIN for access to Jefferson, but you could likely talk me into both DAL and LV stacks as well. The key aspect for me here is really that I am happy to spend down on my stacks which is going to give me easy paths towards rostering these guys who I think are going to be criminally underowned.
Here are a handful of guys that the Contest Sims find as being well underowned:
- Pretty clear that the contest sims just love Shaheed and it’s hard to argue with that. Even at 20% ownership he is no less than twice as valuable.
- We see a couple nice RB2s here with Rachaad White and Tony Pollard both looking undervalued as pairing options.
- I love the Dallas Goedert call here from the algo, he’s such a great combo with Jalen Hurts for a QB+1 that leaves open the rest of the lineup for secondary correlations.
Usage and expected fantasy points
Below is the usage and expected value chart sorted by AggV, the value of the players based on their seasonal expected fantasy points per game as well as Utilization expectation and median projection:
- I have no idea what a Devaughn Vele is but he is probably too cheap based on the usage he had in week 1.
- There’s obviously some pretty high ownerships here with Mason, Kamara, and DeVonta Smith all pushing 20%+ but those guys are all more than deserving of being chalk based on these measures.
- Some more interesting and less highly owned options are Nabers, Jones, and Barkley that are all sub 10%.
- Note the only TE in the top 20 of these metrics is Brock Bowers, who is probably still around $500-$700 underpriced.
Let’s sort that table by projected ownership now:
Some pretty low Aggregated projections in this view, but only a couple of them really matter. Like, I’m not worried about the Akers ownership because his role will be fundamentally different with no Mixon ahead of him. I am more concerned with someone like Tank Dell who is garnering an ownership projection of 15% and no justifiable reason to believe he deserves it.
Guys like Aiyuk, Smith, Olave and Godwin who are all projected for ownership but still have strong usage and aggregated numbers are important to get right this week. That mid-range of WRs is absolutely loaded, and I’m not sure it’ll really matter who you pick there from a technical sense. I am pretty sure that price range of WRs is going to make or break the slate though.
Overall It’s hard to poke holes in the ownership here but we have a lot of sub-10% owned players to utilize in pivoting.
Overall slate notes
- This slate is once again all about smart utilization of chalk. You are trying to pull together 1-2 players below 10% to supplement high owned options and cheap stacks.
- The primary stacks are NO, SF, and MIN with secondary options being ARI, PHI, and HOU.
- We have three separate teams where the RB and the WRs are garnering ownership. I think in instances like that you should be looking to mix and match to spread out your volatility AKA using Akers where you don’t have HOU stacks and Mason where you don’t have SF stacks.
- There is a lot of good chalk while having a lot of good pivots to bring in relative value. Instances like Kamara having a direct pivot to Saquon makes it so you can follow the same roster construction patterns as the field while still being unique in the pieces used.
- I love overstacking the NO/PHI and MIN/HOU games this week. Both could have outlier scoring and produce enough fantasy points to carry 2+ position players from either side to the top of GPPs.
- We see most slates that one of the 5 highest owned players fails: So don’t be scared of fading one of Akers, Mason, Aiyuk, Charbonnet, or Kamara.
- Speaking of Akers, I think he’s just drastically too cheap here. I don’t think he will have 80% of the work but I do think 65-70% makes sense and we have seen him valuable in workhorse roles in the past. Pretty close to a lock and load.
- The trophies are calling our names, we must claim them.
For more info on this slate from other Paydirt contributors and community members, go read through the other articles here and watch the first episode of The Bakery featuring Pablo & Jason.
“Theory Crafting” Slate talk
A community slate breakdown that took place in the Paydirt Discord between James McCool, Pablo, and Jason O. Every important aspect of the slate was touched on with game theory and GPP aspects in mind:
NFL DFS Cash Game Core:
(Finalized after 12pm EST)
This core of players will help you build a strong foundation in cash games. While it is best to use all these players, it’s not a requirement. Generally, you’ll want to focus on the QB, RB, and TEs listed.
QB – Jalen Hurts
RB – Jordan Mason
RB – Cam Akers
WR – Brandon Aiyuk
WR – Jauan Jennings
FLEX – Alvin Kamara
DST – Buccaneers DST
NFL DFS GPP Core:
(Finalized after 10am EST)
This core of players will help you build in priorities to your stacks. Likewise, it’s worth noting that the wide receivers and tight ends listed are meant to be in addition to your chosen stacks.
QB – Brock Purdy, Derek Carr, Sam Darnold, Jalen Hurts
RB – Jordan Mason, Saquon Barkley, Alvin Kamara, Cam Akers, Kyren Williams
WR – Bradon Aiyuk, Rashid Shaheed, Davante Adams, Justin Jefferson
TE – Brock Bowers, Dallas Goedert, Trey McBride, Punt correlation with stack
DST – Whoever you want
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