NFL DFS Showdown SZN 2023: Bills vs. Giants

Welcome to this edition of the NFL DFS Showdown SZN breakdown. The aim of this post is to look at the best players to build around and constructions to focus on for the night’s NFL DFS showdown contests on Draftkings. We run the new Showdown Contest simulations to see what differences we can find in projected ownership and likely exposure. Likewise, we take into account the whole lineup’s projection and ownership.

Main Points:

• Gabe Davis offers the best positive leverage at captain, while Josh Allen and Stefon Diggs offer the best positive leverage at FLEX.
• The models show very little value in the NYG side, so leaning into a 5-1 or a 4-2 BUF construction is really the only way to go.
• You have to be careful of duplications on slates like there where there’s really only one viable side to stack. Look to avoid using both the kicker and the defense together from BUF and avoid using Allen or Diggs at captain in the 5-1s if you want to manage your duplications.

For conversation and game theory on the charts with updated ownership distributions as well as the top ownership lineups, jump in the Paydirt discord! Free with this link: https://discord.gg/mQ6u5dfawF

Video Breakdown:

Quick thoughts:

It’s really hard to play a showdown like this with such a heavy favorite. The best things you can do are be different at captain (Gabe Davis is a strong option here) as well as fading the running backs and kickers from the big favorite. Look to use the Giants kicker instead of the Bills kicker or try to use one of the Giants WR3s (Hyatt sticks out) instead of Wan’Dale Robinson.

Overall, the name of the game tonight is either finding the low owned cheap guy that scores a touchdown or duping 100 ways in the milly. There is no in between.

AI generated text from video:

Okay, look, I’m including this because people did ask for some written thoughts along with this. But the big reason I’m including this is because it is generated from a video to text app and it’s super badly generated. lol there are fuck ups everywhere. If you want a laugh, read below!

What is up everyone? My name is James mccool, I’m the owner of Paydirtdfs.com, and today we’re going to be doing a Showdown season video. Some people really liked these this video the last time that I did it. Some people for the written stuff, so I’m gonna try to kind of have a best of both worlds here. I’m gonna record the video and then give some slight breakdown thoughts in the article itself as well. So if you have seen my showdown season articles before then, usually what we do is we start with the highest leverage captains and then we go to the highest leverage flex plays.

Then we look at some of the high duplicated stuff, the stuff that you really shouldn’t play in GPP, but lineups that are likely going to be highly du duplicated in the contests. And then we give some kind of final thoughts, some ways that I think the slate should be attacked and kind of the paths that I think lead to the highest DV. So we’re going to go ahead and get started. These are not long videos. We’re going to start by looking at a contest him here, running in contest over at paytfs.com. I’m going to be running a medium size contest in a sharp field. I did this a couple times and came up with some pretty similar results. So here is what we’re looking at for captains. So as you can see gave. Davis represents the highest leverage overall, the highest edge for any captain in the slate shows up in the winning frames 25 percent of the time projected ownership, there is only six percent. The worst captains that you could have are James Cook and Ty Rod Taylor.

This makes a lot of sense considering the bills are really, really big. Favor Escape. Davis has been a weapon in the red zone as well, so they’ve been utilizing him quite a bit much more than last year as well, so it’s also very unique. Most people are going to be looking to use guys like Josh Allen. He has the highest projected ownership in in the Captain and then stuff on digs second highest 15 percent. But Gabe Davis is a completely viable option here and offers a lot of edge.

So then when we go and look at the Flex Expo exposures here exposures. The highest overall edge offered is on Stefan digs, so we’ll zoom in here again. Stefan digs 83 percent of the time is in a winning lineup in the contest simulations, that is the highest, second highest is Josh Allen at 81 percent. But stuff on digs only projects for around 46 percent ownership in the Flex. So he gets a lot of edge nearly twice as much as his projected ownership as how often he is in the winning lineup, so that that’s a serious difference. When we sort by negatives, we see that Wanda Robinson, the bill’s defense and Dalton Kincaid are the most overvalued players in the Flex. Wandale Robinson projected at 25 percent. Ownership in the flex only ends up in the winning lineup around seven percent of the time in the contest simulations. So what that can tell us is a couple different things. For the most part, what is telling us giants are just overvalued in general. U, this should be a bill’s onslaught. This should just be a 5 one. We really are not wanting to worry too much about guys like Wandale Robinson and you know Isaiah Hodgkins Sequam Barkley is even overvalued and he’s coming off by R. You know when you have Tyrol Taylor starting U over Daniel Joe. It’s like, maybe that’s an upgrade, but it’s still you know that the bills are 16 point favorites here. We’re building either 4 two or 5 one lineups with the bills. Let’s go ahead and open up the showdown optimized here, really quick and also take a look at.

Some of the high projected dupes so we’re going to go right over to the optimized and what I do to check this kind of stuff is I will go into large field GPP. I’m going to say that we are using overrownned lineups. I want to just run 100 lineups here and I want to say the Min salary can be 45 K.

And I’m just going to run things and it’ll run through and create a 100 lineups. And then we’re going to sort it by ownership so that we can see what the highest ownership lineups are going to be and those are going to be lineups that we expect to be highly duplicated. Again, these are not lineups that you should necessarily use in GPS, but it’s good to understand kind of where the field is going when they are building out these lamps.

So if we pop this open we can see that the highest projected overall optimal here is going to be a Josh Alen captain. If we sort it by ownership, we’re getting a lot of Dawson Knox captain. We’re getting some Tyrol Taylor, some ste on digs, some Josh Allen, the big things here, we’re getting 100 percent Josh Allen, we’re getting 100 percent step on digs, we’re getting 100 percent ty Rod Taylor, and we’re getting a lot of James Cook. Dawson Knox or Gabe Davis right like those are kind of the guys. But the big three here are going to be Josh Allen. Stefan Das and Tyrone Taylor. So from what we saw with the breakdown in the contest ends. Tyra Taylor iss the Atman out there right like we want to lock in. Josh out on stuff on digs in pretty much every single lineup, and we can use Gabe Davis in The captain to even manage our duplications even more. If we get away from Tyra Taylor and if we get away from James Cook, that’s going to really help us manage our duplications in our portfolio. And if you’re doing single entry stuff, that’s absolutely the way to go.

So some final thoughts here overall on this showdown just you don’t need to get cute. This is going to be one where there are going to be people who look at it and say Oh well. I can go with a giant stack or you know maybe go 3 three or use Sequin Barkley in the in the captain or something like that. But man, let’s let’s just be honest about what this giant team is. They’re fucking trash right. They’re so so so bad that as 16 point underdogs they don’t have an alpha wide receiver height end they have. Sequin Barkley is good, but they don’t have an offensive line like they just don’t have anything of redeeming quality. They’re on their backup quarterback. Their offensive play calling has not been good. Their defense is bad like there’s. There’s just really no redeeming qualities here. So for the most part what we want to do is we want to focus on the Buffalo side and we really want to focus on a 501 len or a 4 two if you want to use Sequin Barkley and like.

Maybe Wanda Robinson or I don’t know a backup tight end. Maybe Daniel Bellinger always has a projection in the models or something like that, you know. Jalen Hyatt. I don’t know that use like a lowowned wide receiver with UH Sean Barclay in a 40 lien in a Buffalo. I think that that’s fine, but for the most part, man, you’re just gonna be sacking up Buffalo here. They’re huge favorites. The Giants might not score more than ten real life points. I don’t think there’s too much reason to get super different there.

The models for the most part like I mean obviously the cheap guys, but Jalen Hyatt looks like a pretty good play at really low ownership. He’s only 1200. We have his median projected for five Fantasy Points. Dawson Knox looks like a pretty good play overall. He should have some ownership, but pairing him with Gabe Davis and Josh Allen and Stefan Diggs, it’s probably going to be a pretty decent way to go. The main things here are that you’re going to want to avoid putting too much equity into giant sacs and you’re going to want to avoid.

Probably either of the bill’s defense or the bill’s kicker right like you don’t want to use both because you’re gonna be too highly duplicated, something like Gabe Davis with Josh Allen, bill’s defense and the kicker, and then like Sequin Barkrleyy and Jundell Robinson is probably going to be duped a million times. It’s maybe okay for small field, but not something that you really want to go with. So this showdown, honestly, is not really that good. We prefer to have uh showdowns that are more competitive, that have better options to utilize to par down our offensive options. This one is just kind of ugly. I might play it, i might not, but my suggestion would be to not take it too seriously. Just sta up Buffalo and hope that you land on the right combo. U. Thank you guys for the support again. My name is James. If you have not checked out pattfs.com. I implore you to do so. We have all the sports covered except for right now. NHL or maybe except for MMA and NASCAR. I think so, thank you guy so much for the support, and I hope you guys take down a solo trophy tonight sale.

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