Welcome to this edition of the NFL DFS Showdown SZN breakdown. The aim of this post is to look at the best players to build around and constructions to focus on for the night’s NFL DFS showdown contests on Draftkings. We run the new Showdown Contest simulations to see what differences we can find in projected ownership and likely exposure. Likewise, we take into account the whole lineup’s projection and ownership.
For conversation and game theory on the charts with updated ownership distributions as well as the top ownership lineups, jump in the Paydirt discord! Free with this link: https://discord.gg/mQ6u5dfawF
Captain ownership distributions
When it comes to the captain slot, the most consistently positive leverage players were Bailey Zappe and Wil Lutz. In the handful of runs I did with the contest sims, both of these dudes show up in the winning frames at captain more often than their relatively modest ownership projections show. People likely still don’t trust Zappe, and when you can get a cheap QB at low ownership in showdown you just snap shove.
the most consistently negative leveraged player on this slate is DeVante Parker, followed closely by the Broncos DST. In this specific run, Parker only had an exposure rate of .06%, meaning he nearly didn’t show up at all as a winning captain even though his ownership at the slot is just over 8%.
FLEX ownership distributions
The most consistently positive FLEX play comes from Demario Douglas. In this specific run, he came in with an exposure rate in winning frames of 56%, over double his projected owership there of just 27.82%. It’s a rare spot where the field is drastically missig on a cheaper play based on what the models are telling us.
The most consistently negative leverage play at FLEX was Jerry Jeudy. Because of a relatively high price tag, he was typically left out of winning lineups that included the likes of Elliot, Zappe, and Wilson. Another name worth mentioning here is Javonte Williams, who we will see in a minute is part of the main FLEX combo and a relatively easy fade.
Duplication projections and DFS lineups to avoid
Here is a sample of the lineups in terms of highest ownership from the contest simulations. To clarify, you should avoid playing these lineups in large field GPPs tonight:
Some notes:
- There is going to be HEAVY duping on this slate, as evidenced by the top 10 highest projected dupes above being well over the 225ish range where we expect dupes to get large. There’s a good chance one of these lineups has 500+ duplications in large fields.
- It’s all about paying down at captain tonight, as the field will be jamming in Zeke/Russ.
- Speaking of that, the FLEX combo is going to be Zeke/Russ/Javonte with a lot of Wil Lutz, though Lutz may end up in the captain just as much as the FLEX.
The main thing here is outside of Demario Douglas, there are very few Patriots receiving options that are looking to be involved in heavy duping, and you don’t really see any of the secondary Broncos receivers either. If you can stomach stacking a QB+2 on this slate, that’s going to be the best way to mitigate dupes naturally while still jamming in a lot of the best plays.
DFS Showdown SZN: Final Thoughts
Not going to get super in depth here, both of these offenses are inconsistent at best and bad at worst. The contest sims find that avoiding Javonte Williams is one of the better ways to mitigate duplications as well as build nice relative value, so that’s the key piece that I will give.
For me, the only big roster construction thought I have is to make sure that you start with a QB+2 here. Going with Zappe/Douglas/Gesicki or Russ/Sutton/Jeudy is going to instantly help you out with correlation as well as limited dupe paths and high upside. Just lean into a 4-2 from whichever team you think wins and use one of Zappe/Lutz/Douglas/Sutton at captain to make sure the upside is built in.
Happy Holidays everyone!
Good luck and bink a unique
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