NFL DFS Showdown SZN 2023: Chiefs vs. Jets

Welcome to this edition of the NFL DFS Showdown SZN breakdown. The aim of this post is to look at the best players to build around and constructions to focus on for the night’s NFL DFS showdown contests on Draftkings. We run the new Showdown Contest simulations to see what differences we can find in projected ownership and likely exposure. Likewise, we take into account the whole lineup’s projection and ownership.

Main Points:

• With Patrick Mahomes a lock on the slate, you’ll have to make a decision between Taylor Swift’s boyfriend and Garrett Wilson in terms of your second stud preference
• The most duplicated builds are likely to use a three man combo of Mahomes/Taylor Swift’s boyfriend/G.Wilson, so avoiding one of the three helps manage your dupes immensely
• Did y’all know that Taylor Swift is worth as much as the entire Chiefs franchise? Travis Kelsi better make a good house husband

For conversation and game theory on the charts with updated ownership distributions as well as the top ownership lineups, jump in the Paydirt discord! Free with this link: https://discord.gg/mQ6u5dfawF

Captain ownership distributions

When we look at captain tonight, we see an interesting mix of valuable options. Isaih Pacheco leads the way in terms of leverage gained with an exposure rate of around 16% and a projected ownership at captain of only 8.40%. A similar amount of leverage is gained from Allen Lazard, who projects at just 6% ownership at captain but has an exposure rate at 13.75%. Both options make a lot of sense away from the main 3-man combo we will talk about later.

When considering the worst captains you could use today, we start with Patrick Mahomes. Granted, he’s basically a lock on this slate, but the price to use him at captain is prohibitive. His projected ownership at the slot is 17.70% while his exposure in contest winners is only 9%. He certainly makes up for this in the FLEX, but avoiding him at captain can give a lot of help in terms of win equity.

FLEX ownership distributions

As noted above with Mahomes, he is by far the most valuable play at FLEX with a 91% exposure rate in winning simulations. That’s pretty absurd but I imagine understandable based on the matchup. He doesn’t quite offer the highest leverage, as Taylor Swift’s boyfriend (who plays for the Chiefs) takes that title. Her boyfriend, who’s name is Travis Kelsey, has a 41% difference between his exposure in winning lineups and his projected ownership at the FLEX. This is a situation where the ownership is probably under projecting him, but there’s plenty of room for him to offer leverage even if he ends up 50% owned here.

The worst play at FLEX is the Chiefs DST, which projects at 15% ownership and only has a 4.42% exposure rate. Again, ownership is likely low here, and the Chiefs could end up in the 20%+ range which would make them an atrocious option.

Some other notes on optimization exposures and projected ownership:

• Patrick Mahomes is a free square, you should play him.
• There is clearly not near enough ownership on the NYJ side here, with five players from the Jets offering positive leverage at the FLEX, so leaning into that could be very profitable.

Duplication projections and DFS lineups to avoid

Here is a sample of the lineups in terms of highest ownership from the contest simulations. To clarify, you should avoid playing these lineups in large field GPPs tonight:

There is a very easy to spot combination of players that will be the basis of, I would say, 60% of lineups tonight: Patrick Mahomes, Taylor Swift’s boyfriend, and Garrett Wilson. They show up in 100% of optimals based on both projection and ownership. And that’s just at FLEX! There’s going to be another strong handful of lineups with any of the three at captain as well, so we could reasonably assume 75% of the field will be using all three of these players.

Outside of them, we see a lot of kicker captain, along with Allen Lazard. These low-mid range players are key to being able to fit that 3-man combo. Likewise, we are going to add the Chiefs DST to the captain convo. The main takeaway here is very simple: If you are using all three of Mahomes/ Taylor Swift’s boyfriend /Wilson, you have to worry about being duped a heavy amount. If you avoid any one of those three, you are in the clear (for the most part). Mahomes is a lock tonight, so you can drop your dupes a significant amount by simply leaving off one of Wilson or Taylor Swift’s boyfriend.

DFS Showdown SZN: Final Thoughts

Overall this is a tough showdown simply because the medians for the players make for some really tough fades. You’re going to have to make some uncomfortable decisions or you are going to be heavily duped. The choice between Taylor Swift’s boyfriend and Garrett Wilson is probably the single most important choice to make, and it leads you down a completely different win condition.

If you play Taylor Swift’s boyfriend, you are likely playing with a 5-1 Chiefs stack looking for no Jets players to have any real success. If Garrett Wilson is your fade, you are basically acknowledging the Jets will be unable to move the ball whatsoever.

If you play Garrett Wilson, you are looking for Mahomes to spread the ball. You have a lot more build paths with this route, as you can build for a 4-2 KC stack or you can build for a 3-3 competitive game using both Mahomes and Zach Wilson. You could even build with a 4-2 NYJ lean with Mahomes.

The forbidden path is playing Isaih Pacheco captain and TSB (Taylor Swift’s boyfriend) in the FLEX and building for a Mahomes floor game while the Jets play catchup.

My personal preference is likely a 4-2 KC lean with Mahomes and TSB paired with a fade of Garrett Wilson. But, there are a lot of viable options.

Some players that look overvalued:

• Patrick Mahomes (CPT)
• Chiefs DST
• Chiefs secondary WR options

Some players that look undervalued:

• Jets stacks
• Isaiah Pacheco (CPT)
• Allen Lazard

Good luck and bink a unique

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