Welcome to this edition of the NFL DFS Showdown SZN breakdown. The aim of this post is to look at the best players to build around and constructions to focus on for the night’s NFL DFS showdown contests on Draftkings. We run the new Showdown Contest simulations to see what differences we can find in projected ownership and likely exposure. Likewise, we take into account the whole lineup’s projection and ownership.
For conversation and game theory on the charts with updated ownership distributions as well as the top ownership lineups, jump in the Paydirt discord! Free with this link: https://discord.gg/mQ6u5dfawF
Captain ownership distributions
As far as captains god, the big thing to take away from the runs that I did in the contest sims is to avoid kicker captains, as both Elliot and Myers were consistently negative leverage. The consistently positive leverage players for the slate were Devonta Smith, Jalen Hurts, and Tyler Lockett. Overall this slate lends itself better to playing a mid-priced captain with upside rather than jamming in the high priced options with a cheap captain.
FLEX ownership distributions
For the FLEX spot, the most consistently positive leverage went to A.J. Brown and Jalen Hurts, both of who were in the 10%+ range in every single run. Starting your lineups with that combo in the FLEX is a good way to ensure that your floor is set and your lineups are on the right path.
When considering negative leverage, the consistently negative leverage options were Dallas Goedert and Devonta Smith. Of course, when A.J. Brown is looking like he’s around 30% underowned based on his exposure rate, the other receivers around him are going to look considerably worse.
Interestingly, Jason Myers was a positive value more often than not while Jake Elliott was a negative source of leverage. If you are going to pick a kicker, it seems that Myers is the better choice.
Duplication projections and DFS lineups to avoid
Here is a sample of the lineups in terms of highest ownership from the contest simulations. To clarify, you should avoid playing these lineups in large field GPPs tonight:
A couple notes on the above (bad) lineups:
- The highest exposure players here are A.J. Brown and Jake Elliot, which is nice, because we like Elliott a lot less than we do Myers when it comes to GPPs.
- The ownership sums here are pretty consistent with where we would usually see showdowns end up, so you’ll have to be reticent of the dupe counts you are walking into with certain combinations.
- There are a lot of kicker captains here.
- The main FLEX combo is Hurts/Brown/Kicker.
So the FLEX combo is actually pretty small, and that’s mostly because of the lack of clarity of the opposing QB. With Geno Smith questionable, people don’t know what to do, so neither QB is super owned at the moment. I imagine if Lock is the starter he will end up as part of the main FLEX combo with Hurts, Brown, and a kicker.
DFS Showdown SZN: Final Thoughts
This slate is weird because like… the Eagles are fucking bad on defense. And they have been getting torn up all year by subpar passing attacks. So this appears to be a great spot for the Seahawks offense to put up some numbers. But because of the uncertainty at QB, people aren’t wanting to take chances!
Which, of course, means that we should take those chances!
One player that stuck out to me as being undervalued here is DK Metcalf. He doesn’t rate out the best but in this position and against a defense that has struggled this year he’s exactly the kind of pick you want in showdown. He’s a priority if I end up playing this slate.
Outside of that, it’s pretty much broken down above. Build around Jalen Hurts and A.J. Brown as Eagles pieces and utilize Metcalf and whoever starts at QB for the Seahawks. Preferably go with Myers as your kicker if you use one.
The other way of building tonight is by going with D’Andre Swift at captain along with the Eagles DST and Jalen Hurts. This assumes that the Seahawks have limited production and touchdowns, so it would be a 5-1 onslaught.
My preference is probably with a 4-2 SEA lean with just Hurts/Brown for the Eagles.
Some options that look overvalued:
- Kicker captains
- Devonta Smith
- Eagles DST
Some options that look undervalued:
- DK Metcalf
- Jalen Hurts (CPT)
- D’Andre Swift (CPT)
Good luck and bink a unique
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