Welcome to this edition of the NFL DFS Showdown SZN breakdown. The aim of this post is to look at the best players to build around and constructions to focus on for the night’s NFL DFS showdown contests on Draftkings. We run the new Showdown Contest simulations to see what differences we can find in projected ownership and likely exposure. Likewise, we take into account the whole lineup’s projection and ownership.
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Captain ownership distributions
A really interesting leader in Captain edge: Samaje Perine looks like the highest edge and the highest exposure Captain in this set of contest simulations. He’s definitely going to carry some ownership, but it appears not enough for the upside he has in the slot. His projected captain ownership is around 5% while he shows up in winning lineups around 12%, giving him a solid +7% edge.
Behind him, we have both kickers giving us close to +5% edge (both sit at 8% winning lineup exposure) while we also find Darnell Mooney continuing to offer solid value in ATL showdown slates.
The main negative edges offered at Captain based on this set of sims are from Patrick Mahomes and Bijan Robinson, though nearly all of the expensive captains are at least somewhat overvalued. I’m actually surprised to see Carson Steele be closer to neutral in edge, and I expected him to be a significant negative at Captain.
FLEX ownership distributions
Hey there is the negative edge on Steele! Him, Drake London, Noah Gray and Xavier Worthy are the main negative edges at Flex with Steele and London offering negative numbers below 10%. Another important note: the most consistent negative edge offered at Flex comes from the KC side, signaling that we should be more interested in the ATL side when building out our stacks.
From a positive edge standpoint we have Bijan Robinson leading the way with an exposure rate of 69% and a projected ownership at the Flex of 54%. Right behind his +15% edge is Rashee Rice who comes in with a +11% mark. Starting your builds with both of them locked in the Flex is an easy button way to approach this slate, especially if you add Perine to the Captain slot.
Duplication projections and DFS lineups to avoid
Here is a sample of the lineups in terms of highest ownership from the contest simulations. To clarify, you should avoid playing these lineups in large field GPPs tonight:
Some notes:
- Similar to the last showdown we featured, there should be relatively low dupe counts on this one, with the max optimal ownership at 307.
- Lots of Ray-Ray Captains in the cash optimals, which is something that I think is going to get more ownership than we are projecting.
- There is very little Kirk Cousins and basically no Kyle Pitts.
The Flex core here is going to be Rice/Mahomes/Robinson which will then have rotations of London, Kelce, and Worthy. This is a really spread out exposure group that I think is going to lead to low dupe counts and not much need for duplication mitigation on our end. So long as you aren’t just playing a straight up optimal you should be able to build to a lot of different paths without concern on variation.
I noted it above but I’m seeing basically no Kyle Pitts exposures here and I think that is really interesting. He probably sucks, but even if he sucks he can score occasional touchdowns. And there’s always the upside that he doesn’t suck and Cousins has just had to have some extra time to heal. I think running combos of Cousins/Pitts/Bijan is a unique way to go about this slate that allows you to eat all the chalk elsewhere.
DFS Showdown SZN: Final Thoughts
I like this showdown a lot, there’s some pretty easy ways to gain positive edge and leverage! The field is overall putting too much emphasis on the KC side here and overlooking the ATL side. Likewise, even with their focus on the KC side, it’s on the wrong players.
I don’t think that there is a whole lot of analysis I need to do here outside of what the contest sims have already told us. Starting builds with Perine at Captain bakes in a lot of positive edge and if you then lock in Bijan + Rice you build a great floor around him.
Look at utilizing Cousins and Pitts in larger fields where I think they are able to give you a unique way to attack the slate. Otherwise just avoid Worthy and Kelce while focusing on the high volume pieces and collect your winnings.
Overvalued:
- Drake London
- Chiefs Stacks
- Ray-Ray McCloud (CPT)
Undervalued:
- Cousins+Pitts
- Samaje Perine (CPT)
- Falcons DST
Good luck and bink a unique
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