Welcome to this edition of the NFL DFS Showdown SZN breakdown. The aim of this post is to look at the best players to build around and constructions to focus on for the night’s NFL DFS showdown contests on Draftkings. We run the new Showdown Contest simulations to see what differences we can find in projected ownership and likely exposure. Likewise, we take into account the whole lineup’s projection and ownership.
For conversation and game theory on the charts with updated ownership distributions as well as the top ownership lineups, jump in the Paydirt discord! Free with this link: https://discord.gg/mQ6u5dfawF
Captain ownership distributions
Some notes on Captain exposures and edges:
- There are two main captains with strong positive edge: Aaron Jones and Puka Nacua
- Jones has an edge of +6.50% thanks to a strong 13.80% exposure rate while Puka has the highest exposure rate in the slot at 24.30%
- The most significant negative edges are for Justin Jefferson (-7.40%), Kyren Williams (-5.06%), and Sam Darnold (-4.36%)
- All three of these guys are basically just a consequence of Nacua being such a strong option in the same relative price point
I’ll have another note on Kyren Williams later (hint: he’s a better play than this specific model thinks) but there’s a clear lean away from MIN studs in captain.
FLEX ownership distributions
Notes on the Flex exposures and edges:
- More of Puka Nacua towards the top as he is the most undervalued option on this slate by far
- Jones, Darnold, and Addison all show up as strong positive edges in the Flex with marks of +10.81%, +9.37%, and +8.66% respectively
- The two significantly negative edges at Flex are Cooper Kupp (-18.82%) and Tyler Higbee (-13.66%)
Honestly there are a lot of neutrals on this slate. We will talk about dupes in a moment but I think overall so long as you avoid the big projected duplications you can kind of choose your own adventure.
Duplication projections and DFS lineups to avoid
Here is a sample of the lineups in terms of highest ownership from the contest simulations. To clarify, you should avoid playing these lineups in large field GPPs tonight:
Some notes on the above:
- There is no considerable Flex core on this slate, which is a function of so many studs and mid range values available
- That said, we will see a condensed usage pool across the field with eight players showing 50%+ exposure in cash optimals and no other showing more than 10%
- The max sum ownership is only around 300%, which speaks to a lower dupe count than we would usually expect, but we should beware of that in certain ways
This is from a new Portfolio Management app that I am building and shows the highest projected duplications for the slate:
So even though I think the dupe counts will be a bit lower than usual on this slate, you should absolutely be wary of playing lineups similar to the construction above. Avoiding Hockenson CPT makes a lot of sense from a macro perspective.
The other point that I want to make about this slate: You should be making an effort to force in one player that has an exposure rate under 10% in the cash optimals into all your lineups. It’s an easy form of duplication mitigation for a slate like today.
DFS Showdown SZN: Final Thoughts
This is a good showdown but you do have to play with some nuance.
Speaking of nuance, remember earlier when I said I had an extra note on Kyren Williams? He shows up as a negative edge at CPT in the contest sims, but…
In the Portfolio Management tool he has the best average finishing percentile for lineups at captain, which is a pretty valuable metric. This basically says that lineups with Kyren Williams in the Captain slot follow a roster construction that has a better chance of passing the field when it does well.
Now, I recognize that it can sound weird to hear “He doesn’t project well, but lineups built around him are good lineups”. This is mostly a function of relative value and building towards circumstance, not necessarily projection. Said another way: You should not expect to do well with Kyren Williams in the Captain, but when you DO do well, you should pass larger portions of the field than with other players in the slot.
GPP life, baby.
Anyway, I think there are some clear notes to follow here:
- Building around Puka Nacua in some form is a must
- The field is overvaluing MIN options and undervaluing LAR stacks
- There will be heavy exposure to just eight total players, offering a lot of easy to grab relative value if you mix and match outside of them
Starting lineups at captain with either Puka Nacua (in small field) or Kyren Williams (in large field) seems like a solid move. Adding in Addison, both Kickers, and Hockenson in the Flex makes for strong midrange value. If you go with Puka Captain, add Stafford over Darnold, and vice versa if you go with Kyren captain.
This should be a great game, hopefully we can add some trophies on top of that.
Overvalued:
- Justin Jefferson (CPT)
- MIN stacks
- TJ Hockenson (CPT)
Undervalued:
- Puka Nacua
- Kyren Williams (CPT, Large field)
- LAR stacks
Good luck and bink a unique
Powerful tools for every sport
One site, one affordable price
Sign up or upgrade your membership below!
- Make decisions using a players full range of outcomes, not just their median projection.
- Use actionable metrics based on leverage that help you identify mistakes the field is making and leverage them for your own success.
- Have access to experts in the field along with coaching opportunities to build your process.
- Jump in the Paydirt community discord and join conversations around your favorites sports all day, every day, for free.