Welcome to Monday’s NHL DFS slate – and the last week of regular season NHL DFS. We have a big 190 game slate on tap for tonight – so Lets get into it!
This NHL article is going to focus more on industry-wide NHL projections and ownership, some stuff that looks underowned, and the chalk construction. We’ll close with some game theory and leverage thoughts. Please tag me in discord (Kikikartier) with any feedback. Let’s dig in!
*If you have not read any of my contest review series – I will be referring to the findings consistently. I’d suggest at least reading the conclusion.
*I will be updating my thoughts and posting industry-consensus sims in NHL discord. so please check back.
This article was updated for lines and injuries at 1 pm ET. NHL Updates will occur throughout the day
Use this article in conjunction with the NHL models and Contest Sims to give yourself a real chance at winning each and every slate.
*Please consult dailyfaceoff or leftwinglock to verify goalies before lock. I’ll update a few hours before, but not everybody will be confirmed until 15 minutes before they start.
NHL DFS Lines
- The chalk build today is very clear – and it’s DAL2 (Robertson/Duchene/Bourque) with NSH1 (O’Reilly/Stamkos/Evangelista). Dallas is facing Tornoto – who is bad defensively and now has someone in net who should not be in the NHL. Both of these lines come in at 14% owned for me. Nashville faces San Jose in a must-win game for their playoff chances. O’Reilly and Stamkos both got over 20 minutes last time out and I would not expect that to change here. I’m fine with either of these – but I lean towards NSH1 if you’re picking. Dallas has nothing to play for at this point and there are plenty of teams in good spots tonight.
- I also expect EDM1 (McDavid/Podkolzin/Savoie) to get about 12% against a Colorado team that – while playing for nothing – seems to still be playing all their veterans normal minutes. This is a must-win spot for the Oilers if they want to win the Division – and this is a team that could really use a strong showing or two after a bumpy April. They seem fine, but I’m not enthusiastic despite COL1 not being good defensively and the Avs goaltending being suspect. Edmonton is just too short-handed for my taste.
- Florida isn’t playing any of their talented guys, but this top line is very cheap and they are actual NHL players. Jonathan Quick is likely to be heavy chalk tonight – so I do think FLA1 is a reasonable play. FLA2 (Schwindt/Boqvist/Skoog) at even lower ownership and a tiny 8.3K price tag is also worth a look here.
- Ok so let’s talk about my favorite game on the board – and that is BUF/CHI. Over their last 10 games the Blackhawks are dead last in expected goals against – and it’s not even close. They’ve been 25% worse than the rest of the league. They have also committed the fewest penalties in that span, but the Sabres are also at the top of the league in penalties drawn over that time. I think any of the top 3 BUF lines or the power play are totally fine here. My favorite combinations are going to be BUF2 or Thompson/Tuch/Dahlin/Samuelsson – but you can really play anyone. CHI1 and CHI2 have both been a disaster defensively with xG/60 numbers of 3.5 or above and the Blackhawks have allowed the most high danger chances over the last 10 by a lot. I would not hesitate to attack this spot
- We also have to discuss the Chicago side here – because they all project well around the Industry and for us. CHI1 (Bedard/Lardis/Greene) have been atrocious in a small sample, but we have them as one of the top point/$ plays on the board. CHI2 (Bertuzzi/Frondell/Mikheyev) have probably been their best line recently and CHI3 (Donato/Nazar/Burakovsky) are also well-projected. Any of these lines are fine depending on which price range you’re shopping in – but my preference is either a power play stack of Bedard/Bertuzzi/Frondell or CHI2. I like basically everyone here though so you can’t go wrong. Chicago is a great play on the cheap end tonight
- Our model loves San Jose tonight per usual – but they’re not coming in with a lot of ownership. SJ1 (Celebrini/Smith/Chernyshov) have been excellent this year and are the second highest projected line by raw points. They look great tonight against a Nashville team that tends to play high event hockey. SJ2 (Wennberg/Eklund/Sherwood) and SJ3 (Misa/Toffoli/Graf) are a few of the strongest value plays on the board tonight. I love me some Sharks here, but they’re still behind Buffalo for me. Keep an eye on warm-ups though because they are eliminated at this point.
- The last game worth discussing is Los Angeles/Seattle. The Kings are fighting for their playoff lives here. They need this game, but they draw a Seattle team with someone names Nikke Kokko in net. The field is going to LA2 (Byfield/Moore/Laferriere) at about 10% once again, but I do like LAK1 (Kopitar/Kempe/Panarin) here as well. This is pretty much a 2-line team with both of their top lines playing 18-21 minutes. I don’t hate either. You can also look at SEA1 (Beniers/McMann/Eberle) or a Seattle Power Play stack here as well. They have strong projections around the industry.
- Tampa is also in an interesting spot against this deflated Detroit team with nothing to play for. I prefer to go with TB2 (Point/Guentzel/Perry), but TB1 (Kucherov/Cirelli/Concalves) are also fine. I prefer to stay away from the super expensive skaters per usual
- With the news that Carolina is going to rest everyone, Philadelphia is definitely a strong play. This is a must-win game for them. PHI2 (Dvorak/Konecny/Martone) is probably my preference – just because Dvorak/Konecny have been so good together all year. PHI1 Zegras/Tippett/Foerster) have a strong matchup tonight and project slightly better though.
In smaller fields – Nashville is fine. I do like pairing them with some kind of BUF combination. I think going to the San Jose side with SJ1 also makes a ton of sense. TB2 is also a reasonable contrarian option. We have some really strong plays in the 12-14K range tonight (CHI1, CHI2, BUF2, BUF3, LAK2, SEA1). I can see going with a BUF PP/SJ2 or 3 build as well. I’m pretty bear-ish on DAL2. I just don’t see the incentive for them to play their veterans that much.
In large fields, It’s pretty wide open. I do love the BUF/CHI game, SJ, and COL as contrarian plays tonight. I think being under on Nashville and Dallas is a reasonable stance to take. Philadelphia is a really interesting team to get over the field on. You could get 8-9% of both the top 2 lines and still probably be well over the field.
Defensemen
- Thomas Harley (4700) and Roman Josi (6700) are the chalk at 15% each. I do not mind Josi at all tonight. Philip Broberg (4000) comes in at 12%. Nobody else is in double digits.
- Alexander Nikishin (3300) probably runs the depleted Carolina Power Play tonight. The Philadelphia defense has been dominant lately though. I would not feel bound to play him.
- Rasmus Dahlin (6800) is obviously a strong play at 8%. I love pairing him with Matthias Samuelsson (3800) in a Thompson/Tuch stack. I think going to Bowen Byram (3300) and Owen Power (3000) together or seperately is also totally fine.
- A Josi/Brady Skjei pairing is also a strong play tonight
- I like the Chicago defensemen as value quite a bit tonight. Sam Rinzel (3100), Louis Crevier (3200), and Alex Vlasic (2700) are all in play.
- We’ve got some very strong plays in the 3Ks tonight. Morgan Reilly (3900), Darnell Nurse (3900), Rasmus Ristolainen (3500), Charle-Edouard D’Astous, and Jake Walman (3400) all look solid – in addition to the guys I’ve already mentioned in that range. This is definitely a place to look tonight.
- Vince Dunn (4600), Devon Toews (5000), Brandt Clarke (5300), and Adam Fox (6000) seem like fine mid-tier guys.
I don’t think you should feel bound to the chalk tonight. There’s a ton of good plays. Josi/Skjei, Dahlin/Samuelsson, and Power/Byram all look like solid pairings.
NHL Goalies
- Jonathan Quick (7600) is the clear chalk against this depleted FLA team. 20%+ is a lot for a goalie on a 10-gamer.
- I don’t mind Dan Vladar (7500) at all against this depleted Hurricanes team. The same goes for Joel Hofer (STL).
- I also like Anton Forsberg (8000) and Nikke Kokko (7400) in what could be a low-scoring affair in Seattle tonight.
- The leverage play is going to be Nedeljkovic (7300).
- Confirmed: Quick (NYR), Tarasov (FLA), Vladar (PHI), Vasilevsky (TB), DeSmith (DAL), Gustavsson (MIN),
- Unconfirmed: Bussi (CAR), Talbot (DET), Akhtyamov (TOR), Hofer (STL), Nedeljkovic (SJ), Annunen (NSH), Knight (CHI), Ingram (EDM)
- Luukkonen (BUF), Forsberg (LAK), Kokko (SEA), Wedgewood (COL), Hellebuyck (WPG), Hart (VGK)
Stacks and Theory
- DAL1/NSH1/Josi is the chalk
- It seems like a 4/3 or 3/3 slate, but I could definitely see playing a larger BUF stack. If there’s one team on this slate who could totally crumble – it’s probably Chicago. Florida also might.
- I think Nashville is fine, but I really do like the San Jose side – especially with Annunen in net
- The BUF/CHI game is the spot I really love. Chicago has been absolutely brutal, the ownership is reasonable, and Buffalo has a ton to play for
- There’s a ton of value in the 10-13K range tonight. FLA1 is the obvious leverage play. SJ2, SJ3, BUF2, BUF3, CHI2, CHI1 and SEA1 look great as well
- Philadelphia is a team to look at with this depleted Carolina roster, but don’t go nuts. They still have most of their starting defensemen.
- There will definitely be a temptation to pick on the teams resting guys. That’s valid – but don’t take it too far. These guys who are getting opportunities are ultra-hungry
- I like LAK1, TB2, and SJ1 on the high end for sure. COL1 and COL2 also look good at lower ownership – assuming everybody plays.
- You will have to keep an eye on news tonight. There will be scratches and line changes. I’ll do my best to post them all, but I may miss some
- It’s a good night for defensive pairings. I definitely like Josi/Skjei, Samuelsson/Dahlin, and Byram/Power
- I think the strongest salary structure is probably 19K/12K as opposed to 16K/15K.
NHL Synopsis
For smaller NHL fields – I think the Nashville chalk is a lot better than Dallas. Roman Josi is particularly strong here. I really do like SJ1, TB2, or some sort of Buffalo stack here. Buffalo and San Jose are two of my favorite teams tonight.
In larger fields – I love everything BUF/CHI and SJ. I think all 3 of these teams are excellent and should have moderate ownership. I think LAK/SEA also has a chance to pop off, but I prefer the first lines in that one. TB2 and COL also look strong on the high end
*Line Data is drawn from moneypuck.com:
https://moneypuck.com/lines.htm