Welcome to The last NHL slate of the Regular Season – and my final column of the season. We have a 6 game slate on tap for tonight – so Lets get into it!
This NHL article is going to focus more on industry-wide NHL projections and ownership, some stuff that looks underowned, and the chalk construction. We’ll close with some game theory and leverage thoughts. Please tag me in discord (Kikikartier) with any feedback. Let’s dig in!
*If you have not read any of my contest review series – I will be referring to the findings consistently. I’d suggest at least reading the conclusion.
*I will be updating my thoughts and posting industry-consensus sims in NHL discord. so please check back.
This article was updated for lines and injuries at 1 pm ET. NHL Updates will occur throughout the day
Use this article in conjunction with the NHL models and Contest Sims to give yourself a real chance at winning each and every slate.
*Please consult dailyfaceoff or leftwinglock to verify goalies before lock. I’ll update a few hours before, but not everybody will be confirmed until 15 minutes before they start.
NHL DFS Lines
- So the clear chalk here is EDM1 (McDavid/Savoie/Hyman) at 28% – and that number will only go up now that COL has ruled out MacKinnon. I expect them to get up into the high 30s ownership-wise as a result. The Oilers are facing this dreadful Canucks team with home ice advantage in the first round on the line. Edmonton is one of 3 teams really playing for something on this slate and they have the best matchup on the board. It looks like Calgary is the chalk pairing with the Oilers. CGY2 (Frost/Gridin/Olofsson) comes in at 13% and CGY1 (Backlund/Coleman/Farabee) come in at 11%. They’re facing a Kings team that really wants a win to avoid a first round matchup with Colorado.
- It seems that WPG1 (Connor/Scheifele/Rosen) and NSH1 (Stamkos/O’Reilly/Evangelista) is the secondary chalk build. WPG1 clocks in at 17% and NSH1 at 15%. I could see the NSH ownership going elsewhere though. Nashville did recall a couple guys to make their debuts tonight – so we may see some veterans sit.
- The St. Louis Blues are playing for keeps despite being eliminated – and I would expect that to continue tonight against a Utah team that doesn’t seem particularly likely to play everyone. They lost Defensemen Sean Durzi to an arm injury the other night and they already had Weegar, Sergachev, McBain, Hayton banged up. I have a hard time imagining them being anything but very cautious tonight. That said – STL1 (Thomas/Holloway/Snuggerud) just continue rolling to the tune of an elite 3.55 xG/60. I like them quite a bit again at their low 5% ownership tonight. You can also go to STL2 (Buchnevich/Kyrou/Suter) on the cheaper end as well.
- The Los Angeles Kings haven’t been very good to us this year, but they have everything to play for tonight against a Calgary team running out AHL scrub Arsenii Sergeev and his putrid 3.29 GAA. I like LAK1 (Kopitar/Kempe/Panarin) and LAK2 (Byfield/Laferriere/Moore) quite a bit here at their respective price points and 5-7% ownership
- Anaheim is playing for the same reason as the Kings tonight – and they are in a strong spot against this Nashville team. The issue is that I don’t like their lines. ANH1 (Carlsson/Terry/Veil) doesn’t really do it for me. ANH2 (Granlund/Sennecke/Killorn) would probably be my preferred even strength line – but Carlsson/Terry/Gauthier/LaCombe or Carlson is probably the move for me.
- I guess we have to talk about the Sharks – because the model loves them and they continue to play everybody. SJ1 (Celebrini/Smith/Chernyshov) projects as one of the better raw points plays on the board like always. SJ2 (Wennberg/Sherwood/Eklund) and SJ3 (Misa/Toffoli/Graf) project as two of the better values. None of these lines carry any ownership at all – so they definitely look like strong large field plays. I don’t mind going to SJ2 or SJ3 as a secondary line in smaller fields either. The Jets depth sucks.
- If Colorado plays nobody, I think you can go to SEA1 (McMann/Beniers/Eberle) for sure. I also think you can go to whatever combination of Nelson/Lehkonen/Colton/whomever the Avs use.
In smaller fields – I think you can play Edmonton if you pair them with a zero owned SJ2 or SJ3. Otherwise, I think a pivot to LAK1, STL1, or ANH PP is fine. I’m probably not going to SJ1 here. I don’t really see this as a ceiling spot.
In large fields, I’m probably fading Edmonton. If they beat me, so be it. I think using STL1, LAK1, ANH PP, or SJ1 paired with SJ2, SJ3, STL2, or ANH2 makes some sense here.
Defensemen
- Evan Bouchard (7700) is wildly expensive, wildly chalky at 28%, and is the best raw points play here by a lot. I think it’s fine to eat the ownership if the rest of your lineup is lower owned. Josh Morrissey (5700) has a reasonable price, but I’d rather not eat 18% on him. Roman Josi (7200), Cale Makar (7500), and Philip Broberg (3900) come in at 10-11%. They all seem fine.
- It will surprise nobody that I like Brandt Clarke (5500) and John Carlson (6200) tonight. They’re the top defensemen on my board after Bouchard.
- I think going to a Bouchard/Ekholm, Bouchard/Nurse, Bouchard/Walman, Nurse/Walman, or Nurse/Ekholm pairing at defense makes some sense tonight. Bouchard’s raw score across the industry is also high enough where you can definitely play him at UTIL. This has a strong EV on slates of this size – especially in smaller fields.
- Cale Makar (7500) seems likely to put up a ton of shots without MacKinnon on the Ice.
- Jake Trouba (3600), Brent Burns (3500), Zayne Parekh (3500), Olli Maata (3100), and Joel Edmundson (2700) seem fine on the cheap end. Luca Cagnoni (2500) is your min-priced punt as the Sharks power play defensemen. Just keep in mind he’s third pairing at even strength – so his playing time will be limited.
It’s a good night for two Oilers, two Ducks, or Three defensemen. There’s some cheap guys too if you need them.
NHL Goalies
- Connor Ingram (8500) and Anton Forsberg (7900) are the chalk at 20 and 17% respectively.
- I like whomever is in net for the Blues (7200) or Kevin Laniken (6900) as lower owned guys tonight.
- Confirmed: Forsberg (LAK), Sergeev (CGY), Laniken (VAN), Ingram (EDM), Wedgewood (COL)
- Unconfirmed: Hofer (STL), Vejmelka (UTA), Saros (NSH), Dostal (ANH), Nedeljkovic (SJ), Comrie (WPG), Ostman (SEA)
*Comrie and Hellebuyck both left the ice at the same time this morning – leaving the starter a mystery. DFO has Comrie as confirmed, but be careful. I have not seen any quotes to indicate that.
Stacks and Theory
- The chalk is EDM1 and CGY1 or CGY2. EDM1 seems fine, but you probably will have to offset it with ownership elsewhere and EDM1 Bouchard is a ton of ownership. McDavid/Savoie/Bouchard/Ekholm might be more feasible. I think three EDM defensemen is also totally fine.
- At least two Edmonton defensemen is a strong play.
- The Sharks have no ownership and all three of their lines project well for us. SJ1 is a solid large field option and the depth lines are in play as secondary stacks regardless of format
- I continue to really like the Blues tonight. Both STL1 and STL2 look good against a depleted Utah team that could also rest some key guys after another bad luck injury last time out.
- I think focusing on the teams with something to play for (EDM, LAK, ANH), STL, and SJ makes sense. I’m ok fading the WPG and CGY ownership tonight
In closing, I want to sincerely thank everyone who has read my column and/or participated in discord this year. I have immensely enjoyed interacting with you all, I am grateful for your suppiort, and I look forward to returning next year. I will have a new MLB column and TikTok content starting next week as well – so keep an eye out for that. I – and all of us at Paydirt – appreciate you being a part of this community.
*Line Data is drawn from moneypuck.com:
https://moneypuck.com/lines.htm