Welcome to Monday’s NHL DFS slate. We have a 4 game slate on tap for tonight – so Lets get into it!
This NHL article is going to focus more on industry-wide NHL projections and ownership, some stuff that looks underowned, and the chalk construction. We’ll close with some game theory and leverage thoughts. Please tag me in discord (Kikikartier) with any feedback. Let’s dig in!
*If you have not read any of my contest review series – I will be referring to the findings consistently. I’d suggest at least reading the conclusion.
*I will be updating my thoughts and posting industry-consensus sims in NHL discord. so please check back.
This article was updated for lines and injuries at 1 pm ET. NHL Updates will occur throughout the day
Use this article in conjunction with the NHL models and Contest Sims to give yourself a real chance at winning each and every slate.
*Please consult dailyfaceoff or leftwinglock to verify goalies before lock. I’ll update a few hours before, but not everybody will be confirmed until 15 minutes before they start.
NHL DFS Lines
- The chalk here will be SJ1 ( Celebrini/Smith/Graf) at 30% owned and LAK2 (Laferriere/Byfield/Moore) at 24%. The Sharks have the slate’s highest total and face a depleted Chicago team that features a terrible defensive first line. The Kings are facing Nashville with a decent total and LAK2 projects well around the industry (just not for us).
- The secondary chalk here will be WPG1 (Scheifele/Connor/Iafallo) against a poor Seattle team and LAK1 (Kopitar/Panarin/Kempe) against a mediocre Nashville back end. They both look to be around 18% owned.
- SJ1 projects with a strong raw score, but the depth lines project for about 1/3 or less ownership. SJ2 (Wennberg/Sherwood/Eklund) and SJ3 (Toffoli/Chernyshov/Misa) both project as strong values for us at prices of around 10K each. There’s nothing wrong with going this route tonight.
- I think there are several very sharp ways to go tonight. Seattle, Nashville and Chicago is where I’m going to start. Our matchups data hates Seattle, but our projections tell a very different story. SEA1 (McCann/Beniers/Eberle) have been pretty solid this season and facing a Jets team that is pretty mediocre defensively in front of Hellebuyck. SEA2 (Stephenson/Kakko/McMann) also looks fine. If you want to play SJ1 – this is a strong way to go.
- Going to Chicago against San Jose is another decent way to go. CHI1 (Bedard/Teravainen/Lardis) and CHI2 (Bertuzzi/Frondell/Mikheyev) both come in at 8-10% owned and make some sense as a leverage play. I don’t mind CHI3 (Nazar/Donato/Greene) either. However, I am wary of investing too much in a game with the slowest projected pace I’ve seen all year. I definitely think Fading CHI/SJ is a a reasonable way to be different tonight.
- I guess we have to talk about the Preds as well – who are somehow in the Drivers’ seat to make the playoffs and are facing the Kings in a potentially season-defining game. I prefer NSH2 (Forsberg/Haula/Marchesseault) over NSH1 (O’Reilly/Stamkos/L’Hereaux), but a power play stack with Josi or O’Reilly/Stamkos/Josi would be the route I go here. The Kings take plenty of penalties so the Preds power play should have some chances tonight.
- TB1 (Point/Kucherov/Guentzel) is too expensive for my taste – even on a slate this size – so my preference is to go with the BUF Power Play on the expensive end. They’ve been excellent all year, Tampa takes their fair share of penalties, and we’ve seen the Sabres blow this team apart before. BUF1 probably gets around 15% ownership, but the depth guys like Zucker, Doan, and Norris probably see little. Thompson/Norris/Doan/Dahlin makes the most sense – but I could see a larger stack from Buffalo as well. They’ve got substantial upside here.
- If you want to play 23K TB1 I think CHI3 is a very strong option at 9.3K. I don’t mind going to a Tolvanen/Schwartz or Wood/Evangelista 2-man either.
In smaller fields – I think you can play SJ1, but If you want to go LAK1 or WPG1/SJ2 or 3 that makes sense as well. I also think TB1 makes sense in these smaller fields. Chicago also makes sense in smaller fields as a leverage play – especially CHI3. The Sharks defense sucks and I have a lot more faith in Spencer Knight than Nedeljkovic. Pivoting away from CHI/SJ also makes a ton of sense. It could end up being really low event. I do like SEA1 quite a bit here.
In large fields, I think the Buffalo power play makes a ton of sense here. I think the Nashville power play also makes sense. If I’m shopping on the expensive end I prefer LAK1 to WPG1 or SJ1. I think fading San Jose as the chalkiest team in the slowest game against a solid goaltender makes sense.
Defensemen
- The chalk is going to Be Roman Josi (6800), Brandt Clarke (5300), and Dmitry Orlov (3800) at 17-22% each. Josh Morrissey (5700), Darren Raddysh (6400), and Rasmus Dahlin (6600) probably come in around 15% each.
- I think sticking closer to the expensive end makes sense. I don’t really care about ownership at defense tonight. If you just fade CHI/SJ and LAK2 I think you’re in ok shape leverage-wise for the most part.
- I definitely like the Idea of playing Thompson/Dahlin/Samuelsson with two other power play guys. Thompson/Zucker/Quinn/Dahlin/Power or Byram also seems fine.
- It’s no big surprise that I like Brandon Montour (4900) and Vince Dunn (4500). Matthias Samuelsson (3700) also looks like a strong play on the cheaper end. If you need dirt cheap guys I think Sam Rinzel (3000), Adam Larsson (2900), and Ryan Ufko (2500) are totally fine. I have a hard time imagining needing them though.
The chalk seems fine, but I like the mid-tier much better. Gostisbehere, Faber, Dobson, and Dunn all look very strong tonight.
NHL Goalies
- Connor Hellebuyck (8000) is the clear chalk at 27% – and I could see it being even higher. Anton Forsberg (7900) and Alex Nedeljkovic (7500) come in at 17-19%.
- I definnitely like Spencer Knight (7200). Andrei Vasilevsky (7800) is priced down for the matchup, but he is one of the best in the world.
- Confirmed: Hellebuyck (WPG), Knight (CHI), Forsberg (LAK)
- Unconfirmed: Grubauer (SEA), Nedeljkovic (SJ), Vasilevsky (TB), Luukonnen (BUF), Saros (NSH)
Stacks and Theory
- SJ1/LAK2 is the chalk right now at 30% and 24% respectively. LAK1 and WPG1 also come in with 20% ownership
- I think what you do with this CHI/SJ game is the first decision you have to make. Are you going to attack it from the Chicago side and/or play the SJ depth? Or are you going to fade it entirely? My lean is the latter, but to each their own.
- LAK1 is my favorite of the higher owned stuff. I think they’re the most talented and in the best spot. I do not trust Saros at all despite his history of coming up with big games in critical spots.
- Seattle definitely makes sense against chalky Hellebuyck. SEA1 looks great via our projections. SEA2, Dunn, Montour, and Larsson all look like strong plays as well.
- I love the Buffalo power play tonight. They’ve blown Tampa up in this spot before and have been great all year. There’s no ownership on Buffalo beyond the first line.
- I think focusing on the NSH/LAK game also makes sense. This is a win-or-else game for both teams. Expect them to bring their best games and for it to be a physical contest.
NHL Synopsis
For smaller NHL fields – you’ll have to decide how to handle San Jose. 35-40% ownership and 45% on Celebrini is probably too much for me in smaller fields. I think I’d rather go to LAK1 and then leverage something cheaper like a SJ depth line or SEA1.
In larger fields – I like focusing on this NSH/LAK game, the BUF power play, and SEA. I like everything Seattle. They’re probably the lowest owned team and our projections love them.
*Line Data is drawn from moneypuck.com:
https://moneypuck.com/lines.htm