Welcome to Tuesday’s NHL DFS slate. We have a big 11 game slate on tap for tonight – so Lets get into it!
This NHL article is going to focus more on industry-wide NHL projections and ownership, some stuff that looks underowned, and the chalk construction. We’ll close with some game theory and leverage thoughts. Please tag me in discord (Kikikartier) with any feedback. Let’s dig in!
*If you have not read any of my contest review series – I will be referring to the findings consistently. I’d suggest at least reading the conclusion.
*I will be updating my thoughts and posting industry-consensus sims in NHL discord. so please check back.
This article was updated for lines and injuries at 1 pm ET. NHL Updates will occur throughout the day
Use this article in conjunction with the NHL models and Contest Sims to give yourself a real chance at winning each and every slate.
*Please consult dailyfaceoff or leftwinglock to verify goalies before lock. I’ll update a few hours before, but not everybody will be confirmed until 15 minutes before they start.
NHL DFS Lines
- The industry believes the chalk is DAL1 (Robertson/Johnston/Rantanen) at 15% against Calgary. I tend to think the chalk ends up being VGK1 (Eichel/Dorofeyev/Howden) at the same ownership against the dreadful Canucks – whom everyone wants to pick on (with good reason). The two lines that will be most often paired with them are DET2 (Copp/DeBrincat/Kane) and ANH1 (Carlsson/Sennecke/Killorn). I think DAL1 comes in at 10%. The price is just too high for them to be that chalky in my opinion.
- The most popular lines to play with DAL1 will be VAN1 (Pettersson/DeBrusk/O’Connor) and MTL2 (Demidov/Kapanen/Newhook) at 8% each. That’s not enough to be concerned about in something like the $333. I probably prefer CAR2 (Stankoven/Hall/Blake) to the above two lines though. Our tools have Carolina as the top spot on the slate.
- COL1 (MacKinnon/Necas/Lehkonen) comes in substantially lower owned than Dallas against a St. Louis team that – while better lately – has been dreadful this year as a whole. 5%-ish is an absolute bargain for the Avs in a spot with a better pace than Dallas has.
- Minnesota has the same total for us as Vegas tonight at much lower ownership. MIN1 (Hartman/Kaprizov/Zuccarello) – while priced up at 19.5 – come in sub-4% owned. The same goes for MIN2 (Eriksson Ek/Boldy/Johansson) at 17.7. The elevated prices seem to be keeping people off the Wild tonight – but they come in 2nd and 4th in our line marketshares tool. MIN1 comes in with a number comparable to COL1 and DAL1 (1.42 vs 1.5/1.43). Bobby Brink does not have an injury designation – so MIN3 (Yurov/Brink/Tarasenko) seems like somebody you can consider as a filler line with DAL1 or COL1. They have played pretty well. The top two lines both make solid large field plays and I’d even consider MIN1 in smaller fields as an alternative to DAL or COL. I think this is the spot to attack tonight.
- Based on our projections – I think we also need to take a hard look at BOS1 (Lindholm/Geekie/Pastrnak) in all formats. They’re facing Carolina with 2% projected ownership. The same goes for BOS2 (Zacha/Arvidsson/Mittlestadt. They’re not power play correlated – but that doesn’t mean much as Carolina doesn’t commit many penalties. I think you can obviously go to the other side here with CAR1 (Aho/Svechnikov/Jarvis) against this penalty-prone Boston squad. CAR2 is also a reasonable alternative. This game should be played at a fast pace – so there could certainly be some fireworks here.
- I’ve already mentioned ANH1, but ANH2 (Kreider/Terry/Granlund) is also in a strong spot against Nashville. I prefer them to ANH1 due to power play correlation. I am totally fine going to them – or an Anaheim power play stack. The Nashville side is also definitely in play here. NSH1 (O’Reilly/Stamkos/L’Hereaux), NSH2 (Haula/Marchesseault/Forsberg), or a Nashville power play stack all look good. This is our model’s favorite game of the night.
- The field also seems to be going to both MTL1 (Suzuki/Caufield/Slafkovsky) and MTL2 at about 8% each. MTL1 looks fine and is in a great spot against FLA – but the pace of the game looks pretty poor. I’d probably rather go to MIN than MTL if I’m spending 20K+.
- Lastly, I do not hate this spot for my beloved Ottawa Senators against Tampa Bay and (presumably) Jonas Johansson in net. They do project for a 3.4 total which is only slightly behind Dallas and Colorado according to Vegas. Tampa tends to commit a pile of penalties, Ottawa draws a pile of them, and I expect this to be a physical game. OTT2 (Tkachuk/Cozens/Greig) is my preference at even strength but OTT1 (Stuetzle/Batherson/Giroux) is fine too. I think some combination of 3 power play guys and one of Sanderson/Spence is how I’d approach them though.
- Columbus was one of my favorite teams here – but Rick Bonehead blew up the lines for their most important game of the year. Heaven forbid you do what got you here. I’m no longer interested in them. It’s a big slate.
In smaller fields – Nobody is excessively owned, so choose your own adventure. I’m probably not into the Vegas chalk though. I’d rather go to ANH2, Minnesota, or BOS1. I think COL1 and DAL1 are fine as well.
In large fields, I definitely like MIN1/2, BOS1, the NSH/ANH game, and Ottawa. COL1 looks good at lower ownership, but CBJ2 getting broken up really threw cold water on the expensive stacks for me. MIN3 is an option if you need someone sub-10K I suppose.
Defensemen
- Lane Hutson (5500), Filip Hronek (4400), and John Carlson (6000) look like the chalk at 12-15% each. Miro Heiskanen (5400) is 10%
- Noah Dobson (5200) probably ends up underowned due to lack of power play time. Jake Sanderson (5600) is scheduled to return for Ottawa and I do not expect him to be eased back in.
- Any of Rasmus Andersson, Shea Theodore, or Noah Hanifin seem like solid options that get you access to Vegas’ big total.
- Quinn Hughes (7200) and Roman Josi (6800) are my top plays on the high end. The lousy Columbus lines definitely downgraded Zach Werenski (8100) for me.
- Brady Skjei (3300), K’Andre Miller (3300), and Sam Malinski (4300) also seem like strong plays tonight.
I don’t think ownership really matters tonight at Defense. Play who makes sense in your lineup and who you like
NHL Goalies
- Jeremy Swayman (7300) is the chalk tonight at 15% (what?). The upside is there against Carolina – but the public’s obsession with cheap goalies is probably going too far here.
- I like John Gibson (7900) against these garbage Columbus lines. Jacob Markstrom (7800) seems fine as well. I’d probably just go to whomever is in net for Vancouver on the cheap end (7000)
- Confirmed: Ullmark (OTT), Greaves (CBJ), Gibson (DET), Oettinger (DAL), Wallstedt (MIN), Jarry (EDM), Tarasov (FLA)
- Unconfirmed: Vladar (PHI), Markstrom (NJ), Dobes (MTL), Johansson (TB), Swayman (BOS), Bussi (CAR), Wedgewood (COL), Wolf (CGY), Daccord (SEA), Vejmelka (UTA), Dostal (ANH), Annunen (NSH), Tolopilo (VAN), Hill (VGK)
Stacks and Theory
- The industry has DAL1 as the chalk, but I have it as VGK1 with DET2 or ANH1.
- I don’t see the need for anything bigger than 4-man stacks tonight
- MIN and OTT look like two of the stronger plays tonight – but COL1 is not far behind. I really like them at lower ownership than MTL1 or DAL1
- NSH/ANH is certainly an interesting game. You can go to any top-2 line or either power play there.
- Double spend up at defense will definitely be contrarian tonight with the field trying to spend on double 17K lines or a 20K+ line.
NHL Synopsis
For smaller NHL fields – It’s pretty wide open. You can play chalky stuff, but I definitely like COL1 and both MIN lines.
In larger fields – I love MIN, OTT, and the NSH/ANH game. There’s not a lot that’s owned tonight – so choose your own adventure.
*Line Data is drawn from moneypuck.com:
https://moneypuck.com/lines.htm