Welcome to a new week of NHL DFS. We have an interesting 5-game slate before the big slate tomorrow. Let’s get into it!
This NHL article is going to focus more on industry-wide NHL projections and ownership, some stuff that looks underowned, and the chalk construction. We’ll close with some game theory and leverage thoughts. Please tag me in discord (Kikikartier) with any feedback. Let’s dig in!
*I will be updating my NHL thoughts and posting industry-consensus sims in NHL discord. so please check back.
This article was updated for NHL lines and injuries at 5 pm ET. Updates will occur throughout the day
Use this article in conjunction with the NHL models and Contest Sims to give yourself a real chance at winning each and every slate.
NHL DFS Lines
- The Industry has WPG1 (Scheifele/Connor/Vilardi) as the chalk primary line tonight at mid-20s ownership. However, I have them quite a bit lower at around 16% with both NYR1 (Trocheck/Panarin/Lafreniere) and NYR2 (Miller/Cuylle/Sheary) at mid-20s ownership. The Rangers are at home facing an Anaheim team that has really fallen apart defensively and is committing a ton of penalties at very reasonable prices. This is the top power play spot of the night despite the return of Lukas Dostal for Anaheim. Winnipeg is facing an Ottawa team that is really pretty good defensively at even strength, but falls apart on the PK. I suspect that Mark Scheifele’s ownership exceeds that of the other Jets – into the mid-20s – due to the lack of center depth. However, I see Connor and Vilardi with more mid-teens ownership than 20s because the spot just doesn’t rival that of the Rangers.
- I think the Rangers are fine due to the discounted prices, but do not be fooled by their game against MTL this weekend. This team is in serious trouble without Adam Fox and Mike Zibanejad. Their Power Play has gone in the toilet since Fox went down and losing their 2nd best distributor in Zibanejad will not make things better. I’m a big fan of Gavrikov and Cuylle, but they just cannot replace what these guys brought to the Rangers offense. I went over the Rangers numbers without Fox this weekend, so I won’t repeat them here. They’ve been awful – especially on the power play – and they just don’t draw any penalties. I’m not a huge fan of Rangers chalk, but If I were going to play them it would be NYR1 (Trocheck/Panarin/Lafreniere). That line has posted very good numbers over a multi-year sample. Our projections are pretty much in line with the industry on them.
- The chalk pairing with the Rangers will likely be NSH1 (O’Reilly/Forsberg/Evangelista) or STL1 (Thomas/Buchnevich/Neighbours). They are the opposite of the Rangers. NSH1 has been incredibly good this year. 3.32 xGoals/60 and 75 shot attempts/60 are top-20 NHL numbers. However, the game pace and environment against the Blues are much more mid – despite the year-long goaltending issues STL has had – and it’s not a high-volume power play spot. STL1 projects just as popular as NSH1 and has also been excellent offensively. However, they do not look close to as good in the models despite full power play correlation. I guess it’s an acid test of how one chooses to play this game. I tend to side with the plays that project the best and have produced the best long-term moreso than attack matchups and total power play correlation. Therefore, I definitely side with NSH1 over STL1. They are one of my favorite plays on the slate despite the 15% ownership.
- ANA/NYR is the best game environment according to our tools, but don’t sleep on FLA/TB either. These teams both play a very high-event, physical style. They both commit and draw penalties at a top-10 rate, being plenty of offense to the table, and feature shaky goaltending. TB1 (Cirelli/Kucherov/Hagel) should see lower ownership due to only having one guy on the Power Play, but do not let that deter you. In 145 minutes they are at an astronomical 5.23 expected goals and 81 shot attempts per 60 minutes. To put that first number in context – COL1 is at 4 expected goals per 60. TB2 (Point/Guentzel/Bjorkstrand) has not been good in a small sample at even strength, but they are fully correlated on the Power Play. I have TB1 at 15% and TB2 at 10%. I like both lines quite a bit here and they are two of our 4 top projected lines. They are playable as even strength lines or as a power play stack. They flat-out look better than the Rangers here.
- FLA1 (Reinhart/Lundell/Luostarinen) has been one of the better defensive lines in the league, but FLA2 (Bennett/Verhaege/Marchand) just trades chances for 20 minutes a night (4.2 xGoals for and 3.76 xGoals against per 60) and Tampa will have some control over matchups being at home. Jonas Johansson is between the pipes for TB and they are missing their two best defenders in Hedman and McDonagh. I definitely do not mind FLA2 – and neither do our projections. They seem like a totally fine option at around 12% owned. You can also roll in Reinhart and make it a power play stack, but FLA1 seems more just ok than excellent.
- The other spots I find very interesting – but moreso for large field – are Dallas and Anaheim. They are facing a Kings team that will be down two of their top 3 centers in Quinton Byfield and Phillip Danault. This is a higher ceiling spot for Dallas than the field thinks despite the poor game pace. I prefer DAL1 (Hintz/Robertson/Benn) to DAL2 (Johnston/Rantanen/Steel) as far as even strength lines go, but a power play stack is also viable. The Kings don’t commit a ton of penalties, but the DAL Power Play is lethal and does not need 5-6 chances to crush someone. Anaheim – especially ANA1 (Carlsson/Terry/Kreider) – is also in a really interesting spot tonight. Losing Adam Fox has really hurt the Rangers defense and ANA1 looks to actually come in lower owned tonight. I may change my mind on that though. They are just such a public team and seem to always come in well over ownership projections industry-wide
- As far as cheaper lines go, our model likes NSH2 (Svechkov/Wood/Stamkos), NSH3 (Haula/Marchesseault/Bunting), ANH2 (McTavish/Sennecke/Granlund), and ANH3 (Strome/Vatrano/Gauthier). None of theser lines track for more than 5-6% ownership. The Nashville lines are great if you need something super cheap and Anaheim is great if you can spend a bit more. The only words of caution I would give are that NSH3 has been absolutely awful. 2 xGoals and 45 shot attempts per 60 are awful numbers. NSH2 has been substantially better. ANH has also been nuking the lines very early if they’re struggling – and these lines were awful last time out. Quennville will not be afraid to blow up the ducks lines mid-period. The risk is priced in though.
Synopsis
NYR1 paired with NSH1 or STL1 looks like the chalk here. I strongly prefer NSH1 to STL1 or NYR1 for reasons stated above. I think they are great in smaller fields. However, the Rangers just look overowned. They project well, but mid-20s is a lot of ownership for a team that has struggled to create high danger chances and been so piss poor on the power play. I prefer FLA2 or TB2 to NYR1 in smaller fields.
In larger fields, I’m still fine with NSH1. It’s hard to argue with how good their underlying numbers are on both ends of the ice. I really like Dallas and both sides of FLA/TB though. Those two play very physical games due to the long-term rivalry, so there’s a lot of upside there. Any of the 4 lines I listed are fine as fillers. LAK1 (Kopitar/Kuzmenko/Kempe) is also fully correlated on the Power Play at almost zero ownership. They are a very strong play tonight if you want to offset some chalk.
NHL F/C One-Offs
- I’m bringing this part of the article back because I want to re-iterate that a center one-off will be a popular build tonight due to the Rangers having one center among their top 2 lines. Mark Scheifele (6200) will get ownership far beyond that of WPG1. The same will be true of Ryan O’Reilly. This is something that it’s important to be aware of – especially in smaller fields
NHL Defense
- I expect Josh Morrissey (5500), Darren Raddysh (5000), and Jackson LaCombe (5100) to all be around 22-25% owned.
- I like Roman Josi (6100) quite a bit at 15% owned tonight. I think he’s a strong play. So are Seth Jones (4300) and Miro Heiskanen (5700) at 6-8%. Jake Sanderson (6600) probably draws mid-double digit ownership and seems fine.
- Your cheap PP defensemen are: Cam Fowler (3700), Drew Doughty (3500), and Seth Jones (4300)
- Nick Blankenburg (2700) is going to play 18-20 minutes and some with most other defensemen. He’s a sensible bridge guy between lines if you want to play Preds from across multiple lines.
- A few other cheap guys to consider are: Thomas Harley (3800), Neal Pionk (3300), Aaron Ekblad (3200), Brady Skjei (3200), Dylan Samberg (3100), Gus Forsling (3000)
Synopsis: In smaller fields – I think you can play the chalk guys, but I really do like Josi and Jones tonight. I think Blankenburg is a really interesting play at low ownership.
NHL Goalies
- My guess is that all of Connor Hellebuyck (7800), Juuse Saros (7300), Casey DeSmith (8200), Igor Shesterkin (7900), and Jonas Johansson (7400) are between 12-17% each.
- Pick your poison. The guy who interests me the most is Dostal though. The Rangers shoot the puck, but do not create high danger chances.
Synopsis: Play whoever you want
NHL Stacks and Theory
- Some combination of the Rangers power play guys and one of STL1 or NSH1 with two of LaCombe, Raddysh, Harley, and Morrissey looks like the chalk.
- Our projections love everything NSH, ANA2, and ANA3 value-wise. I tend to agree. Nashville is in a strong spot and they don’t seem excessively owned.
- This FLA/TB game has the potential to be extremely high event. I think TB1 comes in underowned due to lack of power play equity and looks like my favorite play on the board. FLA2, ANA1, and DAL1 also look like really strong plays.
- I think the Rangers are a 6-man stack or full fade for me. They just look way overowned and models are calculating their value based on what is – essentially – a totally different team without Fox and Zibanejad. We have no idea what to expect here.
- If you can avoid the 5-6K center one-off I’d do it
- There are a lot of well-projected defensemen in our model tonight. Do not be afraid to play three of them if you want.
NHL Synopsis
For smaller fields – I would just plug in some form of NSH stack and go from there. I think the FLA/TB game offers a lot of value at lower ownership as well. I would let other people play super chalky Rangers.
In larger fields, there’s a ton to like. FLA1, ANA1, DAL/PP, and a 5 or 6-man NSH stack all look like strong plays. I’m going out of my way to avoid one-offs at center if possible though. I think getting away from that build offers some leverage tonight. LAK1 is also fully correlated on the Power Play with zero ownership.
*Line Data is drawn from moneypuck.com:
https://moneypuck.com/lines.htm