Welcome back to another day of NHL DFS. We have a complicated 5 game slate – So Let’s dive right in.
This NHL article is going to focus more on industry-wide NHL projections and ownership, some stuff that looks underowned, and the chalk construction. We’ll close with some game theory and leverage thoughts. Please tag me in discord (Kikikartier) with any feedback. Let’s dig in!
*I will be updating my NHL thoughts and posting industry-consensus sims in NHL discord. so please check back.
This article was updated for NHL lines and injuries at 3 pm ET. Updates will occur throughout the day
Use this article in conjunction with the NHL models and Contest Sims to give yourself a real chance at winning each and every slate.
NHL DFS Lines
*When I refer to NHL ownership – those numbers will be reflected in the run I push through after this article
**It’s somewhat difficult to get a feel for ownership tonight, so where I am right now may change. Pay attention to the discord for updates
- At this point in the day (2 ET) I believe that either WPG1 (Scheifele/Connor/Vilardi) or WPG PP (Scheifele/Connor/Iafallo/Morrissey) is the chalk primary line at 20% in large field and 25% in smaller fields. I suspect ANH1 (Carlsson/Terry/Kreider) will be almost as high owned and come in at 17% with a glut of lines coming in around 15%. Those include WSH1 (Strome/Ovechkin/Beauvillier), SJ1 (Celebrini/Smith/Toffoli), and MTL1 (Suzuki/Caufield/Bolduc). I have NJ1 (Hischier/Bratt/Meier), DAL2 (Hintz/Robertson/Benn), and DAL1 (Johnston/Rantanen/Steel) all around 10-12% each
- ANH2 (McTavish/Gauthier/Sennecke) will be a popular line to pair with WPG1 tonight. It’s pretty easy to fit a high quality line with WPG if you just drop from Vilardi to Iafallo and make it a PP stack – which I suspect a chunk of the WPG lineups will do. I have them at 15%. PHI2 (Couturier/Tippett/Michkov) is an interesting case. I expect them to be around 10-12% rather than the 20s ownership some other outlets will have them at. I don’t think the field will want to play a Flyers line when they could easily play a better one by spending down to a cheap PP guy.
- This slate is tough to get as handle on ownership-wise. I’m not sure how big of an edge there is, but my hunch is that a BUF Power Play stack won’t have very much ownership. Getting Josh Norris back is a big deal for this Power Play. He’s an excellent distributor, BUF has plenty of good shooters, and Sam Ersson has been pretty dreadful. Our projections really like BUF from a raw points sense as well. Anything you build that can’t fit WPG1 or either top ANH line probably won’t have too much ownership. That’s this slate summed up in a sentence.
- The Flyers finally have all of their best players on the same power play – and they’re all cheap. I think any combination of Michkov/Tippett/Konecny/Zegras is fine at what will probably be lower combunatorial ownership.
- Our Tools think WSH is in the best spot on the board – and It’s hard to argue. This is a strong power play spot for them, their PP has been excellent, and they should get 3-4 shots at it minimum. A Strome/Ovechkin/Wilson/Chycrun stack looks strong. WSH1 does as well. I don’t mind a 2-man of either Wilson/Protas or McMichael/Leonard either.
- I definitely think you can attack the other side here as well. I suspect SJ1 (Celebrini/Toffoli/Smith) slides down the ownership ladder a bit as a whole (Celebrini will still be popular) and they are low-key in a spot that is almost as good. Washington allows about 3 power plays per game, their PK is the worst in the league by expected goals, the Sharks draw penalties at a top-10 rate, and their PP has been good – even with Klingberg recently. It’s also worth pointing out that Alex Wennberg is a GTD tonight. If he’s out, Toffoli moves up to the top PP and the line is fully correlated. Otherwise, you can definitely play either Wennberg (3100) or Eklund (5200) instead of Toffoli and make it a PP stack.
- The UTA/ANH game will be popular tonight, but I suspect that UTA1 (Keller/Schmaltz/Peterka) will come in underowned due to it’s triple wing construction. Peterka finished the game on the top PP unit the other night, so he may come out with that unit tonight and fully correlate this line.
Synopsis: In small fields, It’s a strong night to get away from the chalk. Anaheim does not project all that well and there are strong alternatives to WPG1. You’re just chasing power plays and bad goalies with these WPG/ANH lineups I expect to be popular. I think playing WSH1 makes a ton of sense in smaller fields. You can pair them with somebody like MTL1 or DAL1 who also project pretty well. If you insist on playing WPG1, then just play the full line and don’t leave off Vilardi for Iafallo. BUF3 (Ostlund/Doan/Tuch) also projects just as well for us as any of the PHI lines.
In larger fields, I really like BUF1 and the BUF PP as lower owned options. The Sabres Power Play has been excellent and Ersson is awful. I see Anaheim as the most overowned team on the slate. They really should not be chalk based on most of their industry projections, but I believe they will be. Both sides of the WSH/SJ game probably get squeezed a bit for ANH and that game is super volatile, so I like that as well. One of these times the chalk eaters will actually lose lol
NHL F/C One-Offs
- I suspect the chalky one-offs will be guys like Matvei Michkov (3300), Owen Tippett (4700), Alex Iafallo (2600), Kyle Connor (7800), and Cutter Gauthier (6800). I’m fine with all of them except Iafallo. Playing cheap 3rd line guys on the power play as one-offs seems like playing third receivers as one-offs in NFL. It’s just kind of a fishy thing to do.
- JJ Peterka (3200), Jack Quinn (3400), and Arseny Gritsyuk (3100) aren’t on the power play, but project extremely well industry-wide. They won’t be played as one-offs as much as the guys that are on the PP. Take advantage, create some leverage, and play those guys instead.
- As far as some other guys – I really like Josh Doan (4500) as the net front guy for BUF. I also like his linemate Alex Tuch (5500) quite a bit as well. If you want contrarian access to WPG, I think Michael Carcone (3000), Nino Neiderreiter (3000) or Vladimir Namesnikov (3000) are reasonable ways to go.
- I like Nick Suzuki (6200) and Alex Ovechkin (6800) as well. Both guys play 100% of the Power Play minutes.
- Cheap PP guys: Alex Iafallo (2600), Matvei Michkov (3300), Alex Wennberg (3400), Ryan Leonard (3500)
Synopsis: it’s a great night to play some well-projected guys that aren’t on the power play.
NHL Defense
- I expect the defense ownership to be pretty flat tonight. Jackson LaCombe (5000) and Josh Morrissey (6400) look like the highest owned guys at around 17%. I expect cheap guys like Jamie Drysdale (3200), John Klingberg (3300) and Cam York (3500) to accrue around 10-12% each as well.
- The top power play guys at defense for me are Rasmus Dahlin (6700), Miro Heiskanen (5900), and John Klingberg (3300)
- There are plenty of guys that I like from #TeamNonPP tonight: Noah Dobson (4900), Luke Hughes (4300), Neil Pionk (4200), Mike Matheson (4000), Travis Sanheim (3900), Simon Nemec (3900), Jake Trouba (3800), Matthias Samuelsson (3300), Matt Roy (3300), Dmitry Orlov (3100), and Timothy Liljegren (3000) all look like decent plays.
Synopsis: In all fields it’s the same for me – I think you play Dahlin and our projections agree. Play Morrissey or LaCombe if you want, but you’re eating ownership for lower projections. I definitely like Noah Dobson as a strong pivot off LaCombe as well. Matheson, Pionk, Hughes, Nemec, and Roy all have solid shot and block rates as well. I see no reason to eat a bunch of chalk here tonight.
NHL Goalies
- I expect Askarov to be the chalk tonight at 22-25%. Whomever starts for BUF will probably by 15-17%. It will be pretty flat beyond that.
- I think both of the chalk guys are fine here. Big balls play of the Night would be Dobes or Sam Ersson
Synopsis: Play whoever you want
NHL Stacks and Theory
- It’s hard to be entirely certain, but I believe WPG1 or WPG PP with Iafallo over Vilardi is the chalk. The chalky pairings will be ANH2 and PHI2. The ownership is pretty condensed though. WPG1 is probably 20%, ANH1 17%, WSH1 and ANH2 15%, MTL1/NJ1/SJ1 12% or something like that. So pick your poison
- Our tools really like WSH. They have WPG1 projected the best in the raw by 6 points and about 33% better in goals marketshare.
- I think playing anything where you can’t fit WPG1 or ANH1/ANH2 is a solid way to go. I like BUF1, BUF PP, DAL1/PP, and SJ1 – but to each their own
- I like BUF3 (Ostlund/Tuch/Doan) as a strong small field pivot away from any of the PHI lines or BUF2.
- UTA1 projects really well and will get squeezed ownership-wise due to being a 3-wing line and Utah having been garbage for the last month. They look like a really strong play as well.
- Please don’t play Alex Iafallo as a one-off. Play somebody for a few hundred more that isn’t on the power play and projects better.
NHL Synopsis
For smaller fields – I think it’s a great night to get away from the chalky stuff. It doesn’t project that much better than anything else around the industry (except for us). Play WPG1 if you want, but I think WSH1 with MTL1 or UTA1 is great too.
In large fields, I think you fade WPG1 and hope for the best. If you play them, just don’t play Iafallo, Morrissey, PHI or BUF2. I think BUF3 looks really strong. MTL2 or SJ2 also looks ok to pair with them.
In conclusion, There are plenty of great plays at low ownership tonight. You don’t need to just play WPG, but you can if you want. The field will like ANH, but I don’t think they’re a particularly strong play at their projections.
*Line Data is drawn from moneypuck.com:
https://moneypuck.com/lines.htm