Welcome back to another day of NHL DFS. We have a big 10-game NHL slate – So Let’s dive right in.
This NHL article is going to focus more on industry-wide NHL projections and ownership, some stuff that looks underowned, and the chalk construction. We’ll close with some game theory and leverage thoughts. Please tag me in discord (Kikikartier) with any feedback. Let’s dig in!
*I will be updating my NHL thoughts and posting industry-consensus sims in NHL discord. so please check back.
This article was updated for NHL lines and injuries at 530 pm ET. Updates will occur throughout the day
Use this article in conjunction with the NHL models and Contest Sims to give yourself a real chance at winning each and every slate.
NHL DFS Lines
*When I refer to NHL ownership – those numbers will be reflected in the run I push through after this article
- The Industry has CBJ1 (Fantilli/Voronkov/Marchenko) as the chalkiest line at around 15% ownership. It has TB1 (Cirelli/Hagel/Kucherov), TB2 (Paul/Bjorkstrand/Guentzel), and EDM2 (Draisaitl/Podkolzin/Savoie) as the three other lines in double digits at 11-12% each.
- I actually think you can play COL1 (MacKinnon/Necas/Lehkonen) at reasonable ownership tonight. MacKinnon will still probably be 18-20%, but the line as a whole won’t carry much ownership. You might need a payday loan to play them at 23.5K though. Let me know if you need a referral. I got you fam
- Our projections have TOR2 as the top play on the board via raw points. They look great at low ownership and I agree. NSH2 (Haula/Marchesseault/Forsberg) and STL2 (Suter/Holloway/Kyrou) are the top projected lines by our model.
- It’s a pretty wide open slate tonight. The lines I like are MIN1 (Hartman/Zuccarello/Kaprizov), MIN2 (Eriksson Ek/Boldy/Johansson), DET2 (DeBrincat/Kane/Copp) and DET1 (Larkin/Raymond/Finnie) look like strong even strength lines. Both MIN and DET PP and overstacks are in play as well.
- The Contrarian spot I like tonight is the Calgary Flames against what – I presume – will be an owned Minnesota Wild Goalie. Minnesota does not commit a ton of penalties, but their PK is vey bad when they do. Any of CGY1 (Frost/Coranato/Huberdeau), CGY2 (Kadri/Farabee/Sharangovich), and CGY3 (Backlund/Coleman/Zary) are all in play. So is the CGY PP as a whole.
NHL Defense
- I expect the chalk defensemen to be Darren Raddysh (5000), Zach Werenski (8500), and Evan Bouchard (6100) look like the chalk to me at 15-17% each.
- The top power play guys at defense for me are Zeev Buium (3400), Hampus Lindholm (3800), and Brandt Clarke (4500)
- Cale Makar (8500) looks like a great pivot off Zach Werenski
NHL Goalies
- The clear chalk is Filip Gustavsson (7800). I expect him to be 20%+ owned in all formats. Gustavsson has been phenomenal and Calgary has a reputation as a high-volume, low-quality offensive team.
- Spencer Knight (7000) and Joonas Korpisalo (7500) are the only two other goalies likely to get double digits.
Synopsis: Play whoever you want
NHL Stacks and Theory
- The Industry has the highest owned lines as TB1, TB2, EDM2, and CBJ1. I don’t expect any line to hit 17% though. It’s a huge slate – so everything is in play.
- I expect Nathan MacKinnon to be 17-20% owned again despite an even more mediocre projection than Tuesday.
- I think the clearest way to obtain leverage is playing CGY against chalk Gustavsson. I prefer CGY1, but any of the top 3 lines or Coleman/Backlund looks good as well.
- MIN1, MIN2, DET1, DET2, both Power Plays, TOR2, and STL2 also project well or look strong to me.
- Makar is definitely a solid pivot off both Werenski and MacKinnon – who will accrue 17-20% ownership each
- I really like the idea of a CGY PP stack. I think it’s super low owned, leveraged, and has a pretty high ceiling.
*Line Data is drawn from moneypuck.com:
https://moneypuck.com/lines.htm