Welcome to Monday’s NHL DFS slate. We have a massive 13 game slate on tap for tonight. Lets get into it!
This NHL article is going to focus more on industry-wide NHL projections and ownership, some stuff that looks underowned, and the chalk construction. We’ll close with some game theory and leverage thoughts. Please tag me in discord (Kikikartier) with any feedback. Let’s dig in!
*If you have not read any of my contest review series – I will be referring to the findings consistently. I’d suggest at least reading the conclusion.
*I will be updating my thoughts and posting industry-consensus sims in NHL discord. so please check back.
This article was updated for lines and injuries at 4 pm ET. NHL Updates will occur throughout the day
Use this article in conjunction with the NHL models and Contest Sims to give yourself a real chance at winning each and every slate.
*Please consult dailyfaceoff or leftwinglock to verify goalies before lock. I’ll update a few hours before, but not everybody will be confirmed until 15 minutes before they start.
NHL DFS Lines
- We don’t have any extreme chalk here – but COL1 (MacKinnon/Necas/Kadri) looks to be the highest owned here at about 15%. The Avs are facing Edmonton in a game that should be played at a very fast pace. Unless the Oilers have managed to transport Grant Fuhr forward in time from 1987 – I think the Avs are going to score some goals today. They are very expensive at 22.3 – but we do have plenty of strong values to play with them so it’s doable. The other lines that come in double digit owned look to be MTL1 (Suzuki/Caufield/Slafkovsky) and FLA2 (Bennett/Tkachuk/Verhaege). The Habs are facing the Leafs and their always putrid defense and goaltending in a rivalry game that both teams tend to get up for. They seem fine at 12%. Florida is pretty depleted here with both Marchand and Reinhart out. I get playing them here, but I would just rather play teams that aren’t eliminated from contention at ownership on such a big slate.
- As I said – there are plenty of value lines tonight and ownership is pretty flat across the board outside of those 3 lines. Nothing gets above 10%. The field will go to LAK2 (Byfield/Laferriere/Moore) before anyone else on the cheap end. They probably get 8-9% as the most popular pairing with COL1. However, I think there’s a group of 4 lines that look much better. SJ2 (Misa/Eklund/Toffoli), BUF2 (McLeod/Zucker/Quinn), BUF3 (Norris/Ostlund/Doan), and CAR2 (Stankoven/Hall/Blake) are the cream of the crop for me in this range. CAR2 has been great all year and the PIT depth is certainly nothing imposing defensively. This San Jose/Buffalo game looks like a strong spot for some scoring – and getting access to it makes sense. Our projections have SJ2 as the strongest option, but I don’t think you can go wrong with any of them. Boston is also worth mentioning in this category. BOS2 (Mittlestadt/Arvidsson/Zacha) and BOS3 (Minten/Geekie/Eyssimont) both project well. I definitely prefer BOS3 because Geekie is such an integral part of the power play and the Kings bottom 6 is a total wasteland.
- I’m going to touch on this SJ/BUF game as a whole before we move on. Both BUF1 (Thompson/Tuch/Krebs) and SJ1 (Celebrini/Smith/Graf) are totally viable. Per usual – I like the Buffalo power play stack against the always-chippy Sharks. I typically stick to 4/3 on these big slates, but I could see a 5-man Buffalo stack here for sure. They’ve proven how explosive they can be. I do worry that they pick up a bunch of steam because of their explosion game against Tampa Bay the other day. We’ll see how ownership shakes out closer to lock. I could see them ending up ahead of MTL and on par with COL ownership-wise. That would be excessive.
- MTL1 looks great here. My only concern is that this isn’t really a high-volume power play spot. It could end up that way though – these teams have history. If you want cheaper access to them at even strength – I do think MTL3 (Evans/Dach/Bolduc) is in play for large field events like the $5 or Mini-Max. They haven’t been good so far – but Bolduc and Dach have been good together in other combinations this year. Again – I think it’s something you do at lower stakes in a huge field. Ugh…. I have to mention the Leafs here as well. Montreal continues to commit a bunch of penalties – and their depth just isn’t very good. Our projections like TOR1 (Matthews/Kneis/Domi) and TOR2 (Tavares/Nylander/Maccelli). I definitely prefer the latter – as I talked about in my article over the break. The Leafs suck – but both lines and a power play stack are worth considering from an MME standpoint. It’s super gross – but I’d probably rather play them than chalky Florida in a worse spot.
- There’s going to be plenty of Volatility in this Kings/Bruins game as well. I’ve already mentioned BOS2, BOS3, and LA2 – but both top lines and power plays are certainly viable here as well. This should be a physical affair – but it’s probably very power play dependent on the Kings side and could definitely be a low event stink bomb – as games in Boston have been known to become.
- There are certainly alternatives to COL on the high end – they just don’t project close to as well. TB2 (Kucherov/Hagel/Cirelli) would be the cream of the crop there, but EDM1 (McDavid/Hyman/Nugent-Hopkins) is definitely worth considering for larger fields. Nobody will play them despite how bad COL1 and Blackwood have both been in their own end. The Colorado defensemen like to get up closer to the net than most – and it’s certainly possible that the Oilers generate a few breakaways where McDavid tends to be almost unstoppable. He’s my favorite play of the night and EDM looks very strong here. WPG1 (Scheifele/Connor/Vilardi) and CAR1 (Aho/Jarvis/Svechnikov) are also in play here, but they’re firmly behind the other two for me.
- The last game I’m going to talk about here is NSH/SEA. All of NSH1 (O’Reilly/Stamkos/Marchesseault), NSH2 (Forsberg/Evangelista/Wood), SEA1 (Beniers/McCann/Eberle), and SEA2 (Stephenson/McMann/Tolvanen) project as strong values for us tonight – and there is not likely to be much defense here. SEA1 i definitely toward the top of my board tonight considering Nashville’s depleted penalty kill. I’d probably go to NSH2 on that side just due to having such a better matchup against whatever SEA depth line they run into.
- If you’re not going to COL – I think two mid-priced lines with full power play correlation make sense here. Any of ANH1 (Carlsson/Kreider/Gauthier), CBJ1 (Fantilli/Marchenko/Marchment), NYR1 (Zibanejad/Perreault/Lafreniere), CGY3 (Backlund/Olofsson/Coranato), or PIT1 (Rakell/Rust/Chinakov) are fine in addition to SEA1, NSH1, and FLA2.
In smaller fields – I think there are enough value lines to choose from that you can easily play Colorado – provided you don’t play the chalk defensemen. There’s a ton of them – but CAR2, BUF2, BUF3, SJ2, BOS3, and CGY3 would be the pile I’m choosing from. You can also go to MTL1 here in combination with SEA1, NSH1, or some kind of BUF combination that doesn’t have Thompson. FLA2 and some other PP correlated line is also fine.
In large fields, it’s wide open. I think going way over on COL1 is certainly a viable MME strategy. There’s a ton of cheap lines to play with them. You just have to be careful not to use both chalk defensemen I’ll talk about in a bit. I think EDM1 at no ownership is a particularly strong play against a COL defense that’s known to give up very high danger chances due to their own aggressive play and a struggling goalie in Blackwood. I also think just fading the expensive skaters and going from there will give you a well-projected, contrarian portfolio with plenty of power play correlation. Things like COL without MacKinnon or BUF without Thompson are firmly in play tonight. I think the NSH/SEA game also provides strong value. The LA/Boston and SJ/BUF games has plenty of upside as well.
NHL Defense
- Victor Hedman (3600) is back running PP1 for Tampa and will be chalk at 25%. Rasmus Dahlin (6500), Lane Hutson (5100), and Aaron Ekblad (3500) will be between 12-15% owned.
- Be very careful of COL1/Ekblad/Hedman builds. They will be very popular in small field play. It easily lets you fit in a cheap line that projects well.
- Cale Makar (7500) is totally fine at about 10%.
- I love Evan Bouchard (6700) and Roman Josi (7600) on the high end.
- I like Brandt Clarke (5200), Charlie McAvoy (5300), Jackson LaCombe (5500), Vince Dunn (4600), Morgan Reilly (4500), and Matthew Schaefer (6000) in the mid-tier
- Colton Parayko (3300), K’Andre Miller (3400), Matthias Ekholm (3200), Bowen Byram (3200), and Owen Power (3300) are the team Non-PP standouts tonight
- The cheap power play guys outside of Ekblad/Hedman are: Nikishin (2900), Orlov (3000), and Parekh (3100).
Hedman/Ekblad is going to be a popular combination and makes it easy to afford COL1. That’s the only thing to really be aware of here. Choose your own adventure.
NHL Goalies
- No goalie gets 15% here. John Gibson (7500) and Connor Hellebuyck (7800) both get 12%
- There’s a ton of choices here. Ilya Sorokin (8000) is almost always my favorite – and tonight is no exception. Gustavsson (8100) has his best game right now as well.
- Darcy Kuemper (7300) could be okay on the cheap end if you need someone – but I don’t love it.
- Confirmed: Askarov (SJ), Skinner (PIT), Swayman (BOS), Quick (NYR), Dobes (MTL), Gibson (DET), Tarasov (FLA), Sorokin (8000), Gustavsson (MIN), Oettinger (DAL), Hellebuyck (WPG), Ingram (EDM), Blackwood (COL)
- Unconfirmed: Lyon (BUF), Andersen (CAR), Kuemper (LA), Wolf (CGY), Woll (TOR), Vasilevsky (TB), Merzlikins (CBJ), Hofer (7300), Vejmelka (UTA), Schmid (VGK), Dostal (ANH), Saros (NSH), Grubauer (SEA)
Stacks and Theory
- 4-man stacks and 3/3 builds are likely the way here. If I’m playing a 5-man stack tonight it’s probably BUF
- It’s a choose your own adventure slate. The only thing that probably results in a lot of combinatorial ownership is COL1/Ekblad/Hedman. I don’t think that combination is viable in smaller fields if you want enough leverage. Those builds are best saved for sub-100 entry fields.
- Any of the other expensive lines are fine here – but I really do like the super low ownership on Edmonton and McDavid for large fields
- My preferred strategy is to just fade the most expensive skaters, play two power play correlated lines, and let myself be naturally contrarian
- We have excellent cheap lines to play tonight. SJ2, BUF2, BUF3, BOS3, BOS2, and SEA2 all qualify
- I think the NSH/SEA game is a sleeper tonight. Everybody is cheap and it has the same 6.5 total as a lot of the other games
- If I didn’t mention it, that doesn’t mean it’s a bad play. It’s impossible to mention everything on a huge slate like this.
NHL Synopsis
For smaller NHL fields – I think you can go to COL1, MTL1 or FLA2 if you want. I’d just be wary of the COL1, LAK2, Hedman, and Ekblad pieces together. I think we have excellent cheap lines to play. Playing two mid-priced power play correlated lines is also a very viable route here per contest history.
In larger fields – Choose your own adventure. I think going way over on COL1 is a move, I think fading the expensive skaters and focusing on the mid-tier power play lines also makes sense. I do think that the BUF Power Play without Thompson is a pretty strong play tonight. It’s really cheap and still allows you to fit a lot. NSH/SEA also looks pretty strong per our projections. This is a huge slate. Lean on projections and sims.
*Ownership will be updated to reflect this article by roughly 5 ET.
*Line Data is drawn from moneypuck.com:
https://moneypuck.com/lines.htm