Welcome to Thursday’s NHL DFS slate. We have a massive 14 game slate on tap for tonight. Lets get into it!
This NHL article is going to focus more on industry-wide NHL projections and ownership, some stuff that looks underowned, and the chalk construction. We’ll close with some game theory and leverage thoughts. Please tag me in discord (Kikikartier) with any feedback. Let’s dig in!
*If you have not read any of my contest review series – I will be referring to the findings consistently. I’d suggest at least reading the conclusion.
*I will be updating my thoughts and posting industry-consensus sims in NHL discord. so please check back.
This article was updated for lines and injuries at 4 pm ET. NHL Updates will occur throughout the day
Use this article in conjunction with the NHL models and Contest Sims to give yourself a real chance at winning each and every slate.
*Please consult dailyfaceoff or leftwinglock to verify goalies before lock. I’ll update a few hours before, but not everybody will be confirmed until 15 minutes before they start.
NHL DFS Lines
- Originally I was going to have the chalk as FLA2 – but then Verhaege was ruled out about an hour ago. I currently have five lines with ownership at or above 10% – DAL1 (Johnston/Robertson/Bourque), UTA1 (Schmaltz/Keller/Crouse), and VGK1 (Eichel/Barbashev/Bowman) are the first 3. The chalkiest build will be either DAL1 or UTA1 with VGK1. Dallas is on the road against an Edmonton team that struggles defensively – although I assume EDM1 will be glued to them. That’s not a super positive matchup for Dallas as the McDavid line is pretty good defensively. The Edmonton defenders and goaltending is not very good though. UTA1 is a different story. They’re at home facing a Chicago team that is now dreadful defensively in every phase of the game. Even their Penalty Kill has taken a big hit. The ‘Hawks will also have Soderblom in net again (sigh). VGK1 is in a strong matchup against PIT with a strong total at a cheap price. If I’m going to UTA I probably prefer UTA2 (Peterka/Cooley/Guenther) at lower ownership.
- The Florida situation is somewhat murky. I do have both FLA1 (Reinhart/Rodrigues/Luostarinen) and FLA2 (Bennett/Tkachuk/Greer) at ownership about the same as Vegas. They project really well industry-wide against Columbus. However, we just saw them scratch Verhaege, Lundell, and Balinskas for “undisclosed” reasons. It’s a 14 game slate and they are definitely punting on the season at this point. It’s a good spot with strong projections, but I think I’d prefer to go with teams that aren’t fiddling with their lineup in order to – it seems – protect guys for next year.
- If I’m looking for cheap secondary lines – If it ain’t broke don’t fix it. I’m going right back to the Buffalo Sabres here. All of BUF1 (Thompson/Benson/Ostlund), BUF2 (Mcleod/Quinn/Zucker), and BUF3 (Norris/Doan/Tuch) project pretty well and Buffalo carries a 4 total going into a matchup with Charlie Lindgren – who has been piss poor this year. Alex Tuch is questionable though – so you will have to pay attention heading up to lock.
- New Jersey seems to be getting some ownership tonight as well. NJ1 (Mercer/Meier/Hischier) and NJ2 (Hughes/Bratt/Brown) are both coming in just below Florida. I’ll pass. Yeah – Calgary is bad, but so is New Jersey. There’s no shortage of cheap stuff to play tonight that I trust more than this Devils team. After Buffalo, that starts with the Nashville Predators facing the always dreadful Vancouver Canuckleheads. NSH1 (O’Reilly/Marchesseault/Stamkos) and NSH2 (Haula/Forsberg/Wood) both have strong projections tonight. I probably prefer NSH1, but it’s not by a lot.
- I can’t touch on everything here – but the three other lines between 10-14K that pop for me are DET1 (DeBrincat/Compher/Kane), CAR2 (Stankoven/Blake/Hall), and BOS2 (Mittlestadt/Arvidsson/Zacha). We have them all projected extremely well tonight.
- We have strong projections on the entire Columbus team tonight. CBJ1 (Fantilli/Marchenko/Sillinger), CBJ2 (Monahan/Garland/Johnson), and CBJ3 (Coyle/Olivier/Marchment) all look good from a value standpoint. They’re really low owned and I think they’re fine – but the matchup against FLA1 just is not favorable for CBJ1. Those Reinhart/Luostarinen lines are tough defensively and the Columbus Power Play stinks. You can certainly go here, but it falls behind some of the other spots I’ve already mentioned. It’s likely to be played at a strong pace.
- Let’s get to my favorite spot of the night. It’s Anaheim. ANH1 (Carlsson/Kreider/Gauthier) look fantastic in this spot against this dreadful Leafs team that just refuses to play their best defensive and offensive combinations. We have them as an extremely strong value and I completely agree. It’s not a great power play spot – so you don’t need to go playing 4-5 guys – but they look great as a 3-man line. I don’t have playing some ANH2 (Granlund/Sennecke/Killorn) in MME either. Neither of these lines look to get even 5% ownership. Lock n’ Load. TOR1 (Matthews/Nylander/Cowan) projects to get around 10% ownership. I’m going to pass. The Leafs suck.
- COL1 (MacKinnon/Necas/Kadri), TB1 (Kucherov/Guentzel/Point), EDM1 (McDavid/Hyman/Nugent-Hopkins), and CAR1 (Aho/Svechnikov/Jarvis) all have extremely high ceilings. I’m just not going there on a slate this big. That’s too much salary to commit to one line when there are so many strong spots at cheaper prices.
- It’s not the best spot – but I do think Minnesota is viable tonight against this pretty poor Philadelphia team. MIN1 (Hartman/Zuccarello/Kaprizov) and MIN2 (Eriksson Ek/Boldy/Johansson) both project pretty well. I also think MIN3 (Yurov/Tarasenko/Brink) is in play if you want to play TB1 or COL1. These guys have played well the last few times out – but check back to make sure Brink is playing because he’s a GTD.
In smaller fields – I think DAL1 is fine. They’re pretty high probability. It’s really wide open though. I think ANH1, NSH1, MIN1 and any of the Buffalo lines look like strong plays. You can go to well-projected Florida if you want. I just prefer teams that have something to play for.
In large fields, it’s wide open. Anaheim, Nashville, and Buffalo are my favorite spots. You can go to whatever you like though. It’s a massive slate. I think 4/3 and mid-priced stuff with power play correlation makes the most sense per my lineup study.
NHL Defense
- Aaron Ekblad (3700) and Mikhail Sergachev (5400), Charlie McAvoy (5100) lead the way with 13% ownership. Zach Werenski (8000) and Cale Makar (7300) come in at 10%. That’s too cheap of a price for Makar.
- Quinn Hughes (7000), Evan Bouchard (6500), Darren Raddysh (6300), and Jackson LaCombe (5500) all look like strong plays to me.
- Outside of Ekblad – Alexander Nikishin (3200), Oliver Ekman-Larsson (3100) and Hunter Brzustewicz (2500) are cheap power play guys to look at. That last one is a James McCool special.
I do really like Makar and Hughes at their prices. You can go a number of ways here tonight. Again – It’s such a big slate that it’s hard to know what to say.
NHL Goalies
- Markstrom (8000), Shesterkin (7100) and Lukkonnen (8100) are the chalk at 12-14% each.
- I don’t mind Dustin Wolf (7400) against this pretty mid NJ team. Jesper Wallstedt (8400) or Brandon Bussi (8500) seem fine.
- Oettinger (7800), Daccord (7200), and whomever starts for STL (6900) all have super high ceilings.
- Confirmed: Merzlikins (CBJ), Bobrovsky (FLA), Woll (TOR), Gibson (DET), Binnington (STL), Wolf (CGY), Markstrom (NJ), Swayman (BOS), Nedeljkovic (SJ), Wallstedt (MIN), Jarry (EDM), Oettinger (DAL), Hellebuyck (WPG), Soderblom (CHI), Tolopilo (VAN), Silovs (PIT), Hill (VGK)
- Unconfirmed: Daccord (SEA), Wedgewood (COL), Saros (NSH), Vejmelka (UTA), Shesterkin (NYR), Vladar (PHI), Bussi (CAR), Lindgren (WSH), Lukkonnen (BUF), Vasilevsky (TB), Dostal (ANH)
Stacks and Theory
- 4-man stacks and 3/3 builds are likely the way here. I could see playing a 5-man of BUF, FLA or NSH in smaller fields though. Those teams are cheap enough.
- DAL1, UTA1, VGK1, and both FLA1/FLA2 are the lines over 10% owned. They’re all fine for small fields, but there’s so many things that project well.
- ANH1 looks like the top play on the board to me with BUF and NSH right behind them. I think it’s a strong night for Balanced builds and to invest in lower owned lines with solid power play correlation.
- Spending up for two defensemen overall seems like a strong play here. Makar, Hughes, and Bouchard all have strong prices tonight.
NHL Synopsis
For smaller NHL fields – the chalk lines are fine because they’re not super chalky. I do think there’s a lot of volatility with FLA though. They’re out of it so who knows what to expect there. I’ll be monitoring that as we go forward. I think BUF, NSH, and ANH are all viable in small fields. We have great projections on ANH1. Lock n’ Load.
In larger fields – Choose your own adventure. Anaheim, Nashville, Buffalo, and Minnesota all look great. I think the double spend up at defense is very strong as well. So is the double spend down. It’s hard to carve out a concrete path for such a large slate. I’ll have an ownership update about 5 ET. Good Luck everyone!
*Line Data is drawn from moneypuck.com:
https://moneypuck.com/lines.htm