Welcome to Monday’s NHL DFS slate. We have a simple 5 game slate on tap for tonight. Lets get into it!
This NHL article is going to focus more on industry-wide NHL projections and ownership, some stuff that looks underowned, and the chalk construction. We’ll close with some game theory and leverage thoughts. Please tag me in discord (Kikikartier) with any feedback. Let’s dig in!
*If you have not read any of my contest review series – I will be referring to the findings consistently. I’d suggest at least reading the conclusion.
*I will be updating my thoughts and posting industry-consensus sims in NHL discord. so please check back.
This article was updated for lines and injuries at 4 pm ET. NHL Updates will occur throughout the day
Use this article in conjunction with the NHL models and Contest Sims to give yourself a real chance at winning each and every slate.
*Please consult dailyfaceoff or leftwinglock to verify goalies before lock. I’ll update a few hours before, but not everybody will be confirmed until 15 minutes before they start.
NHL DFS Lines
- There’s going to be 3 lines that encompass over 70% ownership tonight – DET1 (Compher/Kane/DeBrincat), COL1 (MacKinnon/Necas/Kadri), and DAL1 (Johnston/Robertson/Bourque). I have DET1 at a whopping 33% facing this Calgary team whose defense and goaltending are really struggling. You can also pretty easily play them with DAL1 if you want. I have DAL1 at 15% owned tonight facing a Utah team whose goaltending is teetering on the edge of total collapse. It’s impossible to deny how fantastic DAL – and particularly this first line – have been. They are rolling and have very similar numbers to COL1. I have COL1 at 23% owned – but I could definitely see bumping that up against Pittsburgh at home. They have the slate’s highest total by a substantial margin – and I could see them taking a percentage of DET1’s ownership for sure. The only reason they won’t be the chalkiest line is their 23K price tag. If I’m picking here it’s probably DAL1 – just due to a cheaper price than COL1. DET is definitely playable and in a great spot – but that’s a lot of ownership.
- The most popular pairing with COL1 will be DET2 (Finnie/Perron/Raymond). I have them at 13% owned and roughly the same as LAK2 (Laferriere/Byfield/Moore). The latter projects extremely well industry-wide against some pretty shaky Rangers depth.
- Our model and tools love this spot for New Jersey at home against Boston and a backup goalie in Korpisalo. We have them with the second highest total, shots on goal, and the highest HDCF (High Danger chances for). Boston continues to commit piles of penalties – and this Minten/Pastrnak/Khusnutdinov combination is unlikely to be good defensively. NJ2 (Hughes/Brown/Bratt) will definitely be more popular due to the full power play correlation – but I like NJ1 (Hischier/Meier/Mercer better. Our line marketshares tool has them projected for about a half goal more than NJ2 – and I’d expect them to be about 9% owned compared to NJ2’s 12%. If you need someone very cheap – you can always go to Glass/Gritsyuk/Nemec or just NJ3. Ugh…I do not like playing this team – but they look like a pretty strong play by all accounts tonight. If you want to play the Boston side – I suppose you can. My preference is BOS3 (Lindholm/Geekie/Steeves) – but I guess BOS2 (Mittlestadt/Arvidsson/Zacha) is also fine.
- It’s a testament to how weird this slate is that my favorite team on it is the Calgary Flames. I think playing the Flames against what – by all accounts – will be a very chalky John Gibson at cheap prices makes a lot of sense. CGY1 (Backlund/Coleman/Farabee) projects the best and highest owned industry-wide – but they still don’t crack 6% on a 5-game slate. I think I prefer CGY2 (Frost/Gridin/Coranato) though. You get the Flames best offensive player in Coranato, full power play correlation, and the depth matchups of Detroit – which do not compare to those that have Seider/Edvinsson on the ice. DET1 is still awful defensively without Larkin, but getting the best defensive pairing in hockey off the ice is advantageous. I think you can also go to CGY3 (Strome/Sharangovich/Olofsson) if you want. They have power play correlation on the opposite unit as well (CGY will split their power plays). I think the reality is that any of these lines are fine – but I also really like doing a larger 5-man Flames stack and putting a few high end pieces around them. You can go to a 6-man, but I think you want 3 open spots for ceiling guys tonight. I think going to the PP unit with Coleman and Coranato on it makes the most sense – as those are the two best shooters. You can go to either though.
- There’s as couple other plays I want to highlight here. The first one is UTA2 (Cooley/Guenther/Peterka). Nobody will play Utah tonight – but these guys are $200 cheaper than DET1 at no ownership and we have them projected within 0.2 DK points of each other. It’s a tough spot against Dallas – but they should at least avoid the first line matchup. Pittsburgh is also an interesting team tonight. We do not have lines that include the return of Malkin yet – but my guess would be he slides in on 2 with Mantha and Novak. I do like that line a fair amount – as The Avs will try to get their better defensive line in COL2 matched up on Rust/Rakell. I’m always up for attacking COL1 with opposing lines. COL2 (Nelson/Nichushkin/Roy) also seems like a pretty strong play tonight at nominal ownership.
- I think we can also look at LAK1 (Kopitar/Kempe/Panarin) tonight. We have them projected pretty similarly to Dallas and they should be mid-to-high single digit owned against Shesterkin and the Rangers. I think going to a Rangers power play stack is fine as well. The Kings still commit plenty of penalties.
- On the very cheap end to pair with COL1 I like: CGY3, Glass/Gritsyuk/Nemec, and Hyrckowian/Bunting/Harley. All of these give you some leverage or lower owned point/$ value.
In smaller fields – I think DAL1 is fine. I probably would avoid playing them with DET1 and jam in a New Jersey or Calgary line with them. It’s obviously fine to go with COL1 on a shorter slate like this. My strong preference would be to jam in CGY2 or Glass/Gritsyuk/Nemec with them.
In large fields, I’m probably getting away from Detroit and MacKinnon one-offs. These will be the most popular things. You could do both – but you need to get several 1% owned guys to pull it off (hello Hryckowian/Bunting or CGY3). I thing larger Calgary stacks, LAK1, UTA2, and almost everything from New Jersey make sense in large field play. You can decide where to get under the field – but I think going with Calgary over Detroit provides a lot of leverage.
NHL Defense
- The chalk guys are Cale Makar (7500) and Mo Seider (5700) at 20% each. Erik Karlsson (4700) and Dougie Hamilton (5300) are around 15%.
- Miro Heiskanen (5500), Adam Fox (5700), Mikhail Sergachev (4800), and Brandt Clarke (5000) all make sense in the mid-range tonight.
- Thomas Harley (4200) will probably be about 12% owned – but still looks like a strong play despite a down year. Like Hughes (3800) and Brent Burns (3600) both seem decent in the mid-3Ks. You could certainly play Simon Edvinsson (3400) or Devon Toews (3900) as well. They’re just not very good offensive players.
- There’s plenty to like on the very cheap end tonight. Drew Doughty (3100), Kris LeTang (3100), Zayne Parekh (3200), Simon Nemec (3000), Josh Manson (2900), Olli Maata (2500), and Kevin Bahl (2700) all seem fine if you need a very cheap guy
Makar projects really well. I have no issue just playing him. Plenty of Alternatives to Seider though. Heiskanen and Harley are my favorites, followed by Clarke. Any of the cheap CGY defensemen, Doughty, Letang, or the others I mentioned should provide decent value.
NHL Goalies
- John Gibson (8200) is the chalk at 28%. I have Shesterkin (7500) at 16% and Wedgewood (8000) at 13%
- I could see this flipping and Igor ending up the chalk though. He’s a name brand people trust at a cheaper price.
- I like Dustin Wolf (7200) and Casey Desmith (8100) quite a bit. Silovs (7000) is also fine.
- Confirmed: Korpisalo (BOS), Markstrom (NJ), Wolf (CGY), Desmith (DAL), Silovs (PIT), Wedgewood (COL)
- Unconfirmed: Kuemper (LAK), Shesterkin (NYR), Gibson (DET), Vejmelka (UTA)
Stacks and Theory
- This is definitely a slate for larger stacks. We have plenty of cheap players. 4/3 and 3/3 are still strong – but I think there are opportunities to get away from it.
- DET1, DAL1, and COL1 are the chalk. DET1/DAL1 and COL1/DET2 are the popular combinations.
- LAK1 and either of CGY2/CGY3 make a ton of sense to me. There will be at least one very chalky goalie tonight.
- Cale Makar is a strong play
- Don’t be afraid to play two defensemen from the same team – even if they’re from different lines.
- I think a larger Kings or Flames stack is a very strong idea tonight.
NHL Synopsis
For smaller NHL fields – I do like Dallas. I think UTA2 and NJ1 are very strong pivots away from DET. The Kings are also a strong pivot away from DAL1. LAK1/DET1 also makes some sense. So does COL1/CGY line of your choice. I’m staying away from DAL1/DET1. Too chalky.
In larger fields – I like LAK1 and everything Calgary the best. New Jersey is also an interesting play here. NJ1, NJ2, or one of them with Glass/Gritsyuk on top would be pretty interesting. I think you can definitely go to the 5 and 6-man stacks here tonight. It’s a good slate for it considering the lack of appealing options in the mid-tier.
*Line Data is drawn from moneypuck.com:
https://moneypuck.com/lines.htm