Welcome to Monday’s NHL DFS slate. We have a fun 9-game slate on tap for tonight. Lets get into it!
This NHL article is going to focus more on industry-wide NHL projections and ownership, some stuff that looks underowned, and the chalk construction. We’ll close with some game theory and leverage thoughts. Please tag me in discord (Kikikartier) with any feedback. Let’s dig in!
*If you have not read any of my contest review series – I will be referring to the findings consistently. I’d suggest at least reading the conclusion.
*I will be updating my thoughts and posting industry-consensus sims in NHL discord. so please check back.
This article was updated for lines and injuries at 1 pm ET. NHL Updates will occur throughout the day
Use this article in conjunction with the NHL models and Contest Sims to give yourself a real chance at winning each and every slate.
*Please consult dailyfaceoff or leftwinglock to verify goalies before lock. I’ll update a few hours before, but not everybody will be confirmed until 15 minutes before they start.
NHL DFS Lines
- The Firm chalk here is EDM1 (McDavid/Hyman/Savoie). I have them at 24% – which is a lot for a 9 game slate. They’re facing the Sharks with their penalty-happy ways and poor goaltending. It’s a great spot – but a huge ownership number. I talked in my lineup review series about cumulative ownership on slates like this – so be aware that McDavid/Hyman/Bouchard comes out to 82% combined ownership at the time of publication. The clear chalk pairings here will be FLA1 (Tkachuk/Lundell/Luostarinen) and FLA2 (Rodrigues/Samoskevich/Verhaege) at 17% each. I’ve said it repeatedly and it still holds – I do not trust this team. They have no incentive to play anyone. They’re playing Vancouver – who is awful – but I still have serious concerns about this team as chalk. It’s hard to argue with the spots for these teams – but it’s a big slate with a lot of talent on it. There are plenty of cheap lines to play with EDM1 if you really want to use them – but I am going to be under the field on Florida almost for sure.
- The secondary ownership here probably falls to NYI1 (Horvat/Barzal/Heinemen), CBJ1 (Fantilli/Marchenko/Marchment), and VGK2 (Hertl/Marner/Dorofeyev). They’re probably 10% owned apiece. I like VGK2 – and Vegas as a whole – quite a bit tonight. Buffalo is no defensive stalwart and they have been committing the most penalties in the league since the break. VGK1 (Eichel/Stone/Barbashev), VGK2, and VGK Power Play look like solid plays and our projections like them quite a bit tonight. They make a strong alternative to Edmonton.
- We definitely have some strong projections on SJ1 (Celebrini/Smith/Graf) – and the Sharks as a whole – tonight. They seem to be getting very little traction despite a pretty strong matchup against Edmonton. SJ1 is probably my second favorite pay-up option after Vegas and SJ2 (Misa/Toffoli/Eklund) looks like a really strong option at a cheap price and low ownership. I don’t see either line getting 5% and that makes for a solid large field play on this slate
- MTL1 (Suzuki/Caufield/Slafkovsky) are obviously in a strong spot against penalty-happy Boston. They have a big total, are very good, correlated on the power play, and Boston allows plenty of high danger chances. I like them – but this game will not be played at a fast pace. Neither team wants to go up and down the ice here. Play MTL1 at 8-9% in all formats – but be aware of the risk that this whole game could be a low event stinkbomb. If you want something cheaper – I don’t mind MTL2 (Kapanen/Demidov/?), BOS2 (Mittlestadt/Arvidsson/Zacha) or BOS3 (Lindholm/Geekie/Steeves). I’d prefer to just go with a BOS Power Play stack on that side of the game though. Lindholm/Geekie/Pastrnak/McAvoy or something like that. Victor Arvidsson and David Pastrnak are also viable as one-offs here.
- You can also go to Toronto here if you want. TOR1 (Tavares/Nylander/Maccelli) have been excellent this year and this version of NYI1 is awful defensively. It’s just that….it’s the Leafs vs Ilya Sorokin. Groulx/Robertson or TOR3 are also on the list of cheap stuff to play tonight. They project well and are getting significant run at the tail end of this lost season for Toronto.
- So this Minnesota/Chicago game is an interesting one. We have pretty solid projections on Minnesota – but the Industry is very bullish on Chicago. We like the Blackhawks too, but not quite as much. Joel Eriksson Ek is out for Minnesota – which leaves a gap on the second line and power play. My assumption is that Danila Yurov (3200) moves up to the second line and Vladimir Tarasenko (3900) takes his place on the power play. Yurov is definitely not someone to be wary of tonight – he’s a significant prospect that the Wild scuttled the proposed Vincent Trocheck trade over. He’s also been playing really well with Tarasenko on the 3rd line recently. I think MIN1 (Hartman/Kaprizov/Zuccarello), MIN2 (Yurov/Boldy/Johansson), and a MIN Power Play stack are all strong plays. Yurov and Tarasenko probably just make the second line and power play cheaper. Chicago’s penalty kill is much weaker than it used to be and the Wild Power Play is still deadly. This is a spot to consider stacking up if the ownership doesn’t jump. The Chicago side is also interesting. I am definitely interested in CHI2 (Nazar/Bertuzzi/Teravainen) due to it’s power play correlation against an improved Wild PK – but one that has yet to prove itself. You can certainly go to Bedard or CHI1 (Bedard/Burakovsky/Greene), but I’d prefer to stick with the power play. Donato/Mikheyev are also fine if you need a 2-man stack for dirt cheap.
- This Tampa Bay/Seattle game is also pretty interesting. TB1 (Point/Kucherov/Concalves) and TB2 (Cirelli/Hagel/Guentzel) both have potential here – but just don’t project very well. I think I prefer TB2 just due to matching up against the always dreadful Chandler Stephenson and the fact that they get to play with Victor Hedman. You could also go to a power play stack. Tampa has been drawing quite a few penalties – but they have been committing even more. That brings me to one of the sleepers of the slate – the Seattle power play. They split the power play time evenly – so you can go one of a couple ways. Either the Beniers/Eberle/McCann/Dunn or Tolvanen/McMann/Montour/Wright or Kakko unit are fine. I actually prefer the latter though. I think something like a Tolvanen/McMann/McCann/Montour stack is really interesting and gives you access to a 3-man from a power play and even strength line while allowing you to play the two best scorers as well. It’s a large field only spot – but a strong one at super low ownership. If you want to play Edmonton – this is certainly a spot to look at.
- Now we get to my favorite team on the slate….sigh…..The Vancouver Canucks. Their problem has not been an inability to score – it’s with defending and stopping the puck. Vancouver is cheap, projects pretty well industry-wide, and nobody will want to play them because their public perception is so poor. However, I definitely think you can go to Pettersson/Boeser/Rossi/Hronek, Rossi/Boeser/DeBrusk/Willander, or VAN2 (Rossi/Boeser/Ohgren) here. VAN3 (Bluegar/Karlsson/DeBrusk) is also fine here. This is not the same Florida team, but they still commit a bunch of penalties and play physical hockey. I like being on the other side of the chalk tonight.
In smaller fields – you can go to EDM1 if you really want, but I wouldn’t. It’s a lot of ownership. I encourage everyone to make their own decision on the Panthers here – but it’s not for me. I’ll just play someone else. VGK1, VGK2, and SJ1 all look like reasonable small field plays. I do like the idea of playing VGK2 and another mid-priced line quite a bit in smaller fields.
In large fields, I’m probably getting away from Florida for sure. I just don’t trust them and there’s a lot of other cheap stuff I like in CHI, VAN, and SEA. I think MIN1/2/PP, VGK1/2/PP, SJ1/2, and MTL1 all look like strong plays. You could also go to TOR1 in the mid-tier or TOR3 on the super cheap end. NYI1 and CBJ1 also seem fine. It’s a big slate and it’s pretty wide open – so I wouldn’t get bogged down on the chalk tonight.
NHL Defense
- Evan Bouchard (7200) is the stone chalk here at 25%. Zach Werenski (7800), Matthew Schaefer (6200) and Aaron Ekblad (3900) come in at 12%. I think that’s a bit rich for Bouchard. I’m fine with the other guys
- Quinn Hughes (6700) is priced down and the top play on my board tonight. I’m bearish on the expensive end overall though
- Brock Faber (4800), Brandon Montour (4600), Tony DeAngelo (4200), Filip Hronek (4100), Vince Dunn (4000), Victor Hedman (3900), Rasmus Andersson (3900), Morgan Reilly (3700), and Shea Theodore (3500) make up a strong mid-tier
- You can definitely play Hughes/Faber, Bouchard/Ekholm, Schaefer/DeAngelo, Werenski/Fabbro, or Dunn/Montour pairings tonight.
- your cheap power play guys are Alexander Nikishin (3400), and Dmitry Orlov (3000). I love Orlov on the cheap end tonight. Artyom Levshunov (2500) is running the Chicago Power Play tonight. He’s the min-priced special.
Bouchard is super popular. I normally don’t care about ownership – but that number is huge for a slate this size. I really like Quinn Hughes, Brandon Montour, and Levshunov tonight. It’s a great night for two defensemen from the same team as well.
NHL Goalies
- No big chalk here tonight. I’m guessing Hellebuyck (7900), Sorokin (7800), Vasilevsky (8300), and Knight (7000) get around 10% each
- Filip Gustavsson (8400) has his best game right now. He looks great.
- Kevin Laniken (7200) and whomever starts for Seattle (7100) are my favorites here.
- Confirmed: Dobes (MTL), Greaves (CBJ), Sorokin (NYI), Gustavsson (MIN), Ingram (EDM), Lainken (VAN), Grubauer (SEA), Bussi (CAR), Saros (NSH), Hill (VGK), Luukonnen (BUF)
- Unconfirmed: Swayman (BOS), Woll (TOR), Knight (CHI), Hellebuyck (WPG), Nedeljkovic (SJ), Vasilevsky (TB), Bobrovsky (FLA)
Stacks and Theory
- EDM/FLA is the chalk. EDM is super owned, but I could see that number coming down as the day goes on. My feelings on Florida are well known.
- We have some strong alternatives on the high end in MTL1, MIN1, VGK1 and SJ1. I definitely like going with two lines that are slightly cheaper though – starting with VGK2. NYI1, TOR1, CBJ1, a SEA PP stack, or a VAN PP stack look like good second stacks for that type of build
- Vegas power play is definitely the stand out here tonight
- I definitely like Vancouver and Seattle a lot tonight
- The Tampa/Seattle game is really interesting and definitely one that could get out of hand. Tampa just commits and draws so many penalties.
- I like playing two defensemen from the same team tonight. Hughes/Faber and Montour/Dunn are my favorites. No, you are not being clever by playing Ekholm/Bouchard. Plenty of people will do this. Playing Bouchard/Ekholm/Nurse – now that would be contrarian and it’s won before.
- 4 and 3-man stacks tonight for the most part. I think a Vegas or San Jose 5-man are fine though. The defensemen from both teams are cheap enough.
NHL Synopsis
For smaller NHL fields – Edmonton is a lot of ownership and Florida is pretty shaky. Vegas and San Jose look like strong alternatives for small field
In larger fields – it’s pretty wide open, but I’m not getting bogged down with chalk lines tonight. There’s a ton to like. MTL1, MIN, VGK, and San Jose all look good on the expensive end. VAN, CHI, SEA, and TOR3 all look good on the cheaper end. The contrarian stuff has a lot to offer on this slate.
*Line Data is drawn from moneypuck.com:
https://moneypuck.com/lines.htm