Welcome to Friday’s NHL DFS slate. We have a 5 game slate on tap for tonight. Lets get into it!
This NHL article is going to focus more on industry-wide NHL projections and ownership, some stuff that looks underowned, and the chalk construction. We’ll close with some game theory and leverage thoughts. Please tag me in discord (Kikikartier) with any feedback. Let’s dig in!
*If you have not read any of my contest review series – I will be referring to the findings consistently. I’d suggest at least reading the conclusion.
*I will be updating my thoughts and posting industry-consensus sims in NHL discord. so please check back.
This article was updated for lines and injuries at 12 pm ET. NHL Updates will occur throughout the day
Use this article in conjunction with the NHL models and Contest Sims to give yourself a real chance at winning each and every slate.
*Please consult dailyfaceoff or leftwinglock to verify goalies before lock. I’ll update a few hours before, but not everybody will be confirmed until 15 minutes before they start.
NHL DFS Lines
- COL1 (MacKinnon/Necas/Nichushkin) are the runaway chalk tonight. I have them at 29% owned and 4 of the 5 highest owned players are COL1 and Makar. You also really have to pay for them at $23,400. They’re facing Chicago and – presumably Arvid Soderblom instead of Spencer Knight. Soderblom has been awful this year, Colorado is in their worst stretch of play this year by far, and they are the best play here by a substantial margin. Our model has been consistently more bullish on COL1 than the industry all season. The exact opposite is the case tonight. We are far below the industry consensus projection on them and I find that very interesting. It’s strong chalk without a doubt. COL2 (Nelson/Kadri/Roy) also comes in around 15% – so there’s not much help there. You can definitely go to Drury/Kelly/Malinski at super low ownership if you want though.
- The most popular pairing with COL1 looks to once again be CGY1 (Backlund/Coleman/Farabee) at 11% owned against Florida. All 3 CGY lines project well for us – but good luck figuring out who scores for them.
- The other team carrying significant ownership here is Utah. UTA1 (Schmaltz/Keller/Crouse) comes in at 17% for me and UTA2 (Cooley/Peterka/Guenther) comes in at 12%. It’s definitely a strong spot against an absolute defensive pushover in Anaheim. I think it’s viable to go Schmaltz/Keller/Hayton/Sergachev and get the one low owned power play piece in there as well. You can also go to UTA3 (Hayton/Carcone/McBain) at lower ownership. I think a Stenlund/Kerfoot 2-man is interesting as well. Utah seems fine.
- Our model is – yet again – extremely bullish on Anaheim. ANH1 (Carlsson/Kreider/Terry) projects as one of the strongest values on the slate and ANH3 (Poehling/Gauthier/Viel) isn’t far behind. ANH2 (Granlund/Sennecke/Killorn) looks fine – but definitely the worst of the three. I do not mind going to Anaheim here – and a game stack is definitely in play. Utah is good defensively, but this game could easily blow up if Anaheim turns it into a fast-paced affair. The Utah goaltending just isn’t very good.
- Carolina is the other team on this slate with a monster total. CAR1 (Aho/Svechnikov/Jarvis) are obviously in a strong spot against the Leafs tonight. The same can be said for CAR2 (Stankoven/Hall/Blake) – who are still $12,000 for some reason. I have them at 6% owned, but I’m not really buying it. My guess is that number comes up. They are one of my favorite plays on the board though and never seem to get enough ownership. Finding a way to play them with COL1 is a sharp way to go. The Toronto side does deserve mentioning as well – since this is a very similar spot to the one I loved PIT1 in a couple days ago. I do not hate playing TOR1 (Tavares/Nylander/Maccelli) here either – but I do wish they were a little lower owned than 12%.
- I think this WSH/NJ game has the potential to be a bit of a sleeper. There’s not much ownership on either side here – but I strongly prefer WSH due to the presence of Logan Thompson. WSH1 (Strome/Ovechkin/Beauvillier) and WSH2 (Dubois/Protas/Wilson) have both been pretty good all year, are cheap, and in a strong spot against a poor New Jersey team. I’m a little bearish on the NJ side – but it will be low owned. NJ1 (Hischier/Meier/Mercer) would probably be my preference, but NJ2 (Hughes/Bratt/Brown) is fine as well.
- It’s not pretty or fun – but the clear leverage play is Chicago. CHI2 (Nazar/Bertuzzi/Teravainen) has been their best line and probably goes out against COL1 so they can hide Bedard. That’s the line I want to play. I think you can definitely add Bedard and/or Levshunov and make it a power play stack. I suspect that sims are going to like this one and I understand why.
In smaller fields – It’s fine if you want to go with COL1. I kind of like going MacKinnon/Nichushkin/Kadri/Makar or something just to mix it up a little. Necas is an 8K skater and that salary can be spent better elsewhere. I think a UTA/ANH game stack is also in play. I’m out on Calgary. I would find the money for someone like CAR2 or ANH2.
In large fields, I do like the projections and ownership on Anaheim. I just despise that their two best players never share the ice. It’s awful. I definitely like Chicago as the leverage play of the night. Washington also seems like they have some merit as a lower owned play. Carolina and Utah are both fine too of course. My lean is to go under on COL1 due to the price – but that could change.
NHL Defense
- Cale Makar (7500) and Mikhail Sergachev are 25% owned apiece. I can’t bring myself to play a COL stack with both of those guys. It’s too much ownership. Jake Chycrun (6500), John Carlson (5000) and Jake Trouba (4900) come in 13-15%. K’Andre Miller (3600) and Alexander Nikishin (3700) are the popular cheap guys around 10% each
- I like all the top 4 Chicago defensemen – especially Artyom Levshunov (3000) and Sam Rinzel (3200). They should have the opportunity to block plenty of shots. I don’t mind Brent Burns (3500) or Oliver Ekman-Larsson either.
- If you want a couple dirt cheap guys I guess it would be Brandon Carlo (2500) and Olli Maata (2700)
The chalk guys are both really strong – but I do like the cheap PP guys in Levshunov, Nikishin, and Ekman-Larsson. Any of the top 4 guys from Chicago are fine as well.
NHL Goalies
- Logan Thompson (8000) is the clear chalk here at 20% owned.
- I definitely do not hate Daniil Tarasov (7400). Calgary puts a lot of low quality shots on net. Joseph Woll (7200) also has strong upside against Carolina
- Whomever the Chicago goalie is (7000) is the leverage play.
- Confirmed: Thompson (WSH), Allen (NJ)
- Unconfirmed: Bussi (CAR), Woll (TOR), Blackwood (COL), Soderblom (CHI), Tarasov (FLA), Wolf (CGY), Dostal (ANH), Vanacek (UTA)
Stacks and Theory
- The chalk build is COL1/CGY1. UTA1 will also be a popular line – but the field isn’t coalescing around a secondary line to pair with them. My guess would be COL2 though.
- $23,400 is a lot for a line – but it’s a small slate. I will probably be fading COL – as there are other big totals on the slate with less ownership.
- I think a larger Carolina stack is definitely in play tonight. The ownership on UTA is somewhat high to do it with them.
- Anaheim definitely looks like a strong play per our projections. I think a game stack there is a strong play.
- NJ/WSH seems like the ignored game here tonight. I definitely like the idea of pivoting from Utah to the Washington side of this game.
- If you want to play a larger COL stack – Drury/Kelly/Malinski are three guys who are cheap enough to make it work. That won’t be the route I’m going though.
- I have very little interest in this FLA/CGY game tonight. The Flames project well – but it’s too much of a chore for me to want to figue them out at their ownership.
NHL Synopsis
For smaller NHL fields – you can go to COL if you’re a bit creative. I think the ANH/UTA game stack is a strong alternative though.
In larger fields – I like Washington and Anaheim quite a bit tonight. I also think there’s some sneaky cheap combos to play with COL like Stenlund/Kerfoot or Glass/Gritsyuk. Carolina could easily end up my highest exposed team – but I’m not sleeping on TOR1 either. The Leafs can play at a fast pace too with Nylander and Maccelli.
*Line Data is drawn from moneypuck.com:
https://moneypuck.com/lines.htm