Welcome to Tuesday’s NHL DFS slate. We have a monster 15 game slate on tap for tonight. Lets get into it!
This NHL article is going to focus more on industry-wide NHL projections and ownership, some stuff that looks underowned, and the chalk construction. We’ll close with some game theory and leverage thoughts. Please tag me in discord (Kikikartier) with any feedback. Let’s dig in!
*If you have not read any of my contest review series – I will be referring to the findings consistently. I’d suggest at least reading the conclusion.
*I will be updating my thoughts and posting industry-consensus sims in NHL discord. so please check back.
This article was updated for lines and injuries at 1 pm ET. NHL Updates will occur throughout the day
Use this article in conjunction with the NHL models and Contest Sims to give yourself a real chance at winning each and every slate.
*Please consult dailyfaceoff or leftwinglock to verify goalies before lock. I’ll update a few hours before, but not everybody will be confirmed until 15 minutes before they start.
NHL DFS Lines
- The chalk here is some combination of FLA1 (Verhaege/Bennett/Tkachuk), NYI1 (Lee/Heineman/Horvat), and BOS1 (Pastrnak/Minten/Khusnutdinov). Sexy stuff on this 15 game slate. My thoughts on Florida are not a mystery and they’re the same here. I have little interest in this team as chalk on a huge slate. The Islanders are in a must win situation trying to hold off my charging Ottawa Senators for that last playoff spot in the east. It’s a lot of ownership – but I’m fine with it. Boston is in a good spot against the Leafs here, but my mantra of fading expensive skaters really comes into play on these huge slates. Pastrnak fits into that category. I’d rather go to BOS2 (Mittlestadt/Zacha/Arvidsson) or BOS3 (Lindholm/Geekie/Reichel – but I’m not super excited about Boston despite their huge total.
- I doubt they will be 5% owned against Vancouver – but this is a terrific spot for Anaheim once again. ANH1 (Carlsson/Kreider/Terry) lead the way and project incredibly well. The Rossi line has been seeing matchups against opposing first lines lately – and that’s a huge defensive downgrade from Pettersson/Debrusk. ANH3 (Gauthier/Veil/Poehling) also projects extremely well. Quennville took his head out of his ass and put Gauthier on the power play in place of Trouba (still baffled), so a power play or ANH1+Gauthier stack is firmly in play as well. ANH2 (Granlund/Killorn/Sennecke) is also fine.
- This SJ/NSH game is also worth discussing. We’ll start with the Sharks who finally brought back Chernyshov and put him back on the top line with Celebrini and Smith. This is their best combination – and they’re in a strong, must-win spot against Nashville. The NSH depth is awful defensively – so if you want to go with SJ2 (Wennberg/Eklund/Graf) or SJ3 (Misa/Sherwood/Regenda) that’s fine too. I’m just not sure why you would need anyone that cheap unless you’re playing somebody like COL1, DAL1 or TB1 though.
- The Nashville side here is also intriguing. NSH1 (O’Reilly/Stamkos/Evangelista) have some strong projections industry-wide projections. They do come with 10% ownership though. NSH2 (Forsberg/Marchesseault/Wood) are also a strong play. This looks like a solid spot to attack overall.
- Utah also comes in with a strong total at very reasonable prices and I like them quite a bit. UTA1 (Keller/Schmaltz/Crouse) and UTA2 (Cooley/Peterka/Guenther) both project well – but I prefer UTA2 jus because they’re less popular (1% vs 5%). Fire them up with confidence.
- If you want to go with Columbus – that’s probably fine too. I don’t mind CBJ1 (Fantilli/Marchenko/Marchment) here. The Flyers side is also kind of interesting if you want something super low owned. We have PHI1 (Dvorak/Konecny/Bump) and PHI2 (Tippett/Barkey/Zegras) projected pretty well.
- The other team I will discuss is Seattle. SEA1 (Beniers/Eberle/McMann) project extremely well against Florida. They’re not fully correlated on the power play – but I think you just add one of Eeli Tolvanen or Vince Dunn while keeping McMann. He’s just a shooting machine and fading him because he’s not on the power play is a mistake
- There are plenty of expensive stacks with big totals tonight – led by COL1 (MacKinnon/Necas/Landeskog) and TB1 (Kucherov/Hagel/Cirelli). Both of these teams were totally embarrassed by their opponent tonight within the last two weeks and I can’t see that happpening again. Paying that sort of price for a line on a slate this size just doesn’t come with a great track record. They’re fine – but tread carefully.
- We have VGK1 (Eichel/Barbashev/Stone) and VGK2 (Marner/Dorofeyev/Smith) projected really well. Am I really stacking against Hellebuyck on a 15 game slate? Yeah IDK but they are viable.
In smaller fields – I’d probably go to The Islanders if you want a chalk line. I just don’t want to put my money behind the Panthers when they have almost no incentive to play their best guys. I strongly prefer just fading all of the chalk lines and going to some combination of ANH1, SJ1, UTA, or NSH. The mid-tier stuff is very often the ticket on these big slates. I’m avoiding super expensive skaters entirely here.
In large fields, I do like this slate. It’s pretty much the same teams for me in Anaheim, Utah, Nashville and San Jose – but roll in CBJ1 and SEA1. I think avoiding expensive F/C is always a strong strategy on slates like this.
NHL Defense
- Charlie McAvoy (5300), Erik Karlsson (5600), and Roman Josi (7200) are the chalk here – but it’s only 15-17% each. I assume Seth Jones (4600) will make it up into that group as well. I don’t hate Josi as a spend
- I think Zach Werenski (8500) is a fine spend here.
- I like Darren Raddysh (6300) and Jake Chycrun (6400) quite a bit as stand alone spends as well
- Mikhail Sergachev (5500), Noah Dobson (5400), John Carlson (5100), Brandt Clarke (5100), Brandon Montour (5000), Jackson LaCombe (4700), Thomas Harley (4400), and Vince Dunn (4100) in the mid-tier. This is my favorite range tonight.
- Rasmus Andersson (3600), Shea Theodore (3500), Morgan Reilly (3500), Jamie Drysdale (3400), and Jordan Spence (3300) look solid in the 3Ks
- Simon Nemec (2700) would be my choice as a sub-3K guy. Anything below that and I would consider rebuilding.
I don’t hate Josi as a spend – but I think there are many strong alternatives to the chalk mid-tier guys.
NHL Goalies
- I have Jake Oetttinger (8200), Andrei Vasilevsky (8200), and Darcy Kuemper (8200) between 9-12% owned.
- I like Connor Hellebuyck (7300) – but I assume he will come way up in my final ownership update.
- I also like whomever the goalie for Seattle is.
- Confirmed: Greaves (CBJ), Vladar (PHI), Gibson (DET), Bobrovsky (FLA), Rittich (NYI), Andersen (CAR), Wedgewood (COL), Silovs (PIT), Stolarz (TOR), Swayman (BOS), Gustavsson (MIN), Saros (NSH), Hill (VGK), Wolf (CGY)
- Unconfirmed: Dostal (ANH), Laniken (VAN), Vejmelka (UTA), Jarry (EDM), Kuemper (LAK), Hellebuyck (WPG), Lindgren (WSH), Hofer (STL), Oettinger (DAL), Allen (NJ), Nedeljkovic (SJ), Vasilevsky (TB), Dobes (MTL), Soderblom (CHI), Daccord (SEA), Ullmark (OTT)
Stacks and Theory
- The chalk build is FLA1/NYI1. My stance on Florida is well-documented. The Islanders fit the kind of line I’m targeting and I’m ok with them. Boston is also pretty chalky.
- I’m really trying to stay away from the super expensive skaters on this slate. There’s just so many options and the totals at the top are very close together
- I love Anahem tonight – especally ANH1 with or without Gauthier. Kreider is the fade if you only want 3 F/C from ANH. I love both John Carlson and Jackson LaCombe as well
- SJ1, UTA1/2, NSH1/2, and SEA 1/PP are the other standouts to me. CBJ1, PHI, and VGK seem fine – but are farther down my list.
- I’m fading the super expensive lines tonight. I just don’t see the need for them.
- I’m sticking to 4/3/1 or 3/3 here. Anaheim or Nashville would be the only 5-mans I’d consider.
NHL Synopsis
For smaller NHL fields – you can go to NYI or FLA. I am not though. I like the same teams across the board tonight. ANH1, UTA1, UTA2, NSH1, NSH2, SJ1 would be the pool I’m choosing from.
In larger fields – I like the same teams except with CBJ, VGK, PHI, and SEA1/PP added. I’d rather spend more at defense and have two well-projected lines with strong power play correlation than an expensive line with some depth guys. It just has a better track record on these big slates.
*Line Data is drawn from moneypuck.com:
https://moneypuck.com/lines.htm