Welcome to Tuesday’s NHL DFS slate. We have a 10 game slate on tap for tonight – so Lets get into it!
This NHL article is going to focus more on industry-wide NHL projections and ownership, some stuff that looks underowned, and the chalk construction. We’ll close with some game theory and leverage thoughts. Please tag me in discord (Kikikartier) with any feedback. Let’s dig in!
*If you have not read any of my contest review series – I will be referring to the findings consistently. I’d suggest at least reading the conclusion.
*I will be updating my thoughts and posting industry-consensus sims in NHL discord. so please check back.
This article was updated for lines and injuries at 1 pm ET. NHL Updates will occur throughout the day
Use this article in conjunction with the NHL models and Contest Sims to give yourself a real chance at winning each and every slate.
*Please consult dailyfaceoff or leftwinglock to verify goalies before lock. I’ll update a few hours before, but not everybody will be confirmed until 15 minutes before they start.
NHL DFS Lines
- The clear chalk here is WPG1 (Connor/Scheifele/Iafallo) and EDM1 (McDavid/Savoie/Podkolzin. The Jets face off against a Chicago team that has been depleted by a deadline sell-off. They project incredibly well, I have them around 25% owned, and they probably deserve it. They’re the best play here by a lot and the easy SE/small field play tonight. I think I’m comfortable being under on EDM1. They’ve been good – but not really for a McDavid line (3 xGA/60). I’m ok going elsewhere.
- The more popular secondary plays after EDM1 will be DET2 (Copp/DeBrincat/Kane), WSH1 (Ovechkin/Strome/McMichael), and BUF1 (Thompson/Tuch/Krebs). All of these are totally fine. WSH1 is just way too cheap for the matchup against PHI considering they’re still technically alive at 5 points back with 8 to play. DET2 has some strong industry projections and BUF1 is in a solid matchup against the Islanders. WSH1 is my favorite due to the price, DET2 looks solid, and BUF1 has our top projected marketshare of the night. 10% ownership is fair for any of these lines
- BUF has the slate’s highest total for us tonight. BUF is obviously a strong play, but both BUF2 (Mcleod/Zucker/Quinn) and the BUF Power Play have been excellent all year. I certainly won’t hesitate to go to them tonight and they look excellent. Don’t sleep on the Islanders side either. Buffalo is no defensive stalwart, has been taking penalties at a top-10 rate the last 20 games, and the Islanders are in a fight for the playoffs. I think both NYI1 (Horvat/Heineman/Lee) and NYI2 (Schenn/Ritchie/Barzal) look like strong contrarian plays at sub-5% if you need to offset ownership from someone like WPG. NYI2 makes a particularly strong pairing with either top line from the MTL/TB game.
- Speaking of that game, we have two top lines that are both wildly expensive, but have strong upside. I definitely prefer the Tampa side with Kucherov slated to return. You can go to TB2 (Cirelli/Kucherov/Hagel) or the Power Play. It’s up to you. TB2 probably has the highest ceiling on the slate though.
- You can also go to the Dallas Power Play in the same vein tonight against the penalty-happy Bruins. I probably prefer that over either of the above tbh. Robertson, Johnston, and Rantanen could all see 21-23 minutes here.
- Our model loves both sides of this PIT/DET game and I certainly see why. DET2 looks great, but DET1 (Larkin/Raymond/Finnie) also projects as a strong value against this pretty weak Penguins defense. I also like the PIT side a fair amount. Our model loves PIT2 (Mantha/Brazeau/Rakell) at 11.2K tonight and I agree. They’re an incredibly strong play. PIT1 (Crosby/Rust/Chinakov) definitely has the firepower, but tangling with Seider/Edvinsson has been fun for exactly nobody this season. I like this game quite a bit
- CAR/CBJ is also worth discussing. This game projects to be played at a break-neck pace and I like a few things from it. CAR2 (StankovenBlake/Hall) has been my go-to all year and that doesn’t change here. I like them once again at 13K and 5% ownership. I actually prefer the Columbus side here though. It’s technically a dreadful matchup, but we have seen the Carolina goaltending falter time and again when shots actually get through. Therefore, I do like CBJ1 (Fantilli/Marchenko/Marchment) here and we are much more optimistic on them than the industry per usual. I also really like CBJ2 (Monahan/Jenner/Garland) at sub-10K. They’re going to garner some ownership, but they have played really well and that price is just way too cheap for the talent level.
- There are a few other teams I want to mention – and it starts with my guys the Ottawa Senators. They are facing off against a Florida team that is pretty much playing out the season and has shut down half the team. However, I still expect this to be a physical game that features favorable matchups for Ottawa. It starts with OTT2 (Tkachuk/Greig/Cozens) for me – as this Panthers lineup just falls off a cliff after the first line. OTT1 (Stuetzle/Batherson/Giroux) are also fine – as is OTT3 (Pinto/Amadio/Cousins) if you need someone cheap. I prefer a power play stack here though. Cozens/Tkachuk/Batherson or Stuetzle/Tkachuk/Batherson would probably be my two favorites. It’s a strong power play spot for the Sens tonight in a must-win game.
- New Jersey also projects pretty well tonight. NJ2 (Hughes/Brown/Bratt) is fully correlated, but NJ1 at the cheaper price point is where my interest lies. They project extremely well, produce a ton of high danger chances, and their marketshare is high. I like them quite a bit here. The Power Play is less interesting to me here, but NJ2 is fine. The Rangers don’t take many penalties, the Devils power play sucks with Luke Hughes running it, and I like the price point on NJ1 better
- The last team I’ll mention here is Seattle. I don’t hate going to a Seattle Power Play stack against Edmonton tonight. Beniers/Eberle/McMann/Dunn projects extremely well and I’m not scared of the Edmonton defense. Jared McCann is also totally viable, but he is down on the 3rd line with Shane Wright.
In smaller fields – Probably just go to WPG1 and pick someone contrarian with them. If you don’t want to play them – just throw in Spencer Knight. DET2 is also totally viable as a pivot from WPG1. Playing them together will be pretty popular though.
In large fields, I like I really like Ottawa, Buffalo, the Islanders, Columbus, and the PIT/DET game tonight. There’s plenty if low owned stuff to choose from so I’m not getting bogged down with Winnipeg in large fields tonight. I’ll probably come in under the field.
Defensemen
- The chalk defensemen will be Evan Bouchard (7600), Luke Hughes (4000), Josh Morrissey (5500), and Moritz Seider (6300) at between 12-16% each. Zach Werenski probably comes in at 10-11% as well.
- It should be no big surprise that I like Rasmus Dahlin (7200) and Matthew Schaefer (7000) on the high end.
- Jake Chycrun (5700), Erik Karlsson (5600), Miro Heiskanen (5300), and Lane Hutson (5100) are the highlights for me in the mid-tier
- In the lower-mid tier I expect Luke Hughes (4000) to garner plenty of ownership despite being bad at hockey and just having a great PR team. Brandon Montour (4600), Thomas Harley (4500), and Vince Dunn (4000) all look really strong in this range. Matthias Ekholm (4000) and Darnell Nurse (3700) are also both underpriced
- Ivan Provorov (3500), Sam Rinzel (3400), Simon Edvinsson (3400), and Hampus Lindholm look solid in the 3Ks. With Thomas Chabot and Jake Sanderson out, he Sens are running Jordan Spence (3400) and Tyler Kleven (3300) out onto the ice until they fall down. Kleven has seen 27 or more minutes 3 games in a row. Fire one or both of them up with confidence
- You should not need any super cheap guys tonight – but Carson Soucy (2500) and Simon Nemec (3000) are there if needed. I just don’t know why you wouldn’t find a bit more salary and just play the Ottawa guys
The chalk seems fine, but I’m out on Luke Hughes. Vince Dunn or either of the Sens guys just look better at much lower ownership. It’s a strong night for the 3-4K range so don’t get too married to the top tier.
NHL Goalies
- Linus Ullmark (7000) is the chalk right – and it’s warranted. He’s had a bad year, but he’s priced like the Panthers are healthy and in the playoffs. I’m not sure 17% is high enough tbh, but his upside is limited due to the shot-suppressing nature of the OTT defense. I would imagine Connor Hellebuyck (7500) ends up the chalk though because that price is also insane. I do not mind either of them.
- There’s definitely upside to Jet Greaves (7200), Spencer Knight (7200), and whomever the goalie is for Seattle (7000) at much lower ownership as well. They all should see plenty of shot volume.
- Confirmed: Vladar (PHI), Thompson (WSH), Ullmark (OTT), Tarasov (FLA), Gibson (DET), Oettinger (DAL), Korpisalo (BOS), Bussi (CAR), Oettinger (DAL), Knight (CHI), Ingram (EDM),
- Unconfirmed: Daccord (SEA), Hellebuyck (WPG), Markstrom (NJ), Shesterkin (NYR), Skinner (PIT), Rittich (NYI), Luukkonnen (BUF), Dobes (MTL), Vasilevsky (TB)
Stacks and Theory
- The chalk build is WPG1/EDM1. Full stop. WPG1 projects really well and seems ok for small fields though.
- It’s a really wide open large field slate. I definitely like OTT, CBJ, PIT and NYI at low ownership.
- BUF and DET both look good – but I do like BUF2 and DET1 as alternatives to their chalkier teammates
- I think it’s a 4/3/1 or 3/3 night.
- There’s plenty of excellent defensemen in the 3-4K range tonight. The 5K range is also loaded.
- I really do like Seattle tonight. The power play guys, Dunn, Montour, and the goalie all look like strong leveraged options tonight.
NHL Synopsis
For smaller NHL fields – WPG1 is fine, but be sensitive who you play with them. The Islanders, Kraken, Senators, Penguins, or Blue Jackets all make sense
In larger fields – It’s wide open. There are a lot of good spots, so I’m inclined to be under on the WPG and EDM chalk. There is strong upside in multiple spots tonight – so spread out.
*Line Data is drawn from moneypuck.com:
https://moneypuck.com/lines.htm