Welcome to Wednesday’s NHL DFS slate. We have a 5 game slate on tap for tonight. Lets get into it!
This NHL article is going to focus more on industry-wide NHL projections and ownership, some stuff that looks underowned, and the chalk construction. We’ll close with some game theory and leverage thoughts. Please tag me in discord (Kikikartier) with any feedback. Let’s dig in!
*If you have not read any of my contest review series – I will be referring to the findings consistently. I’d suggest at least reading the conclusion.
*I will be updating my thoughts and posting industry-consensus sims in NHL discord. so please check back.
This article was updated for lines and injuries at 1 pm ET. NHL Updates will occur throughout the day
Use this article in conjunction with the NHL models and Contest Sims to give yourself a real chance at winning each and every slate.
*Please consult dailyfaceoff or leftwinglock to verify goalies before lock. I’ll update a few hours before, but not everybody will be confirmed until 15 minutes before they start.
NHL DFS Lines
- There is one chalk line tonight – and then it really flattens out ownership-wise. That line is NYI1 (Barzal/Horvat/Palat) at 22%. They are in an advantageous matchup against an Anaheim team on a 3-in-4 – who will likely be starting a poor backup goalie in Ville Husso. This line has posted a solid 3.14 expected goals per 60 and is priced reasonably at 16.5K. I don’t mind them – but it’s a lot of ownership for a pretty mid team in the Islanders. Who the field will pair with them gets a bit messy. I have all of SEA1 (Beniers/McCann/Eberle), DET2 (Copp/DeBrincatRaymond), ANH1 (Carlsson/Gauthier/Kreider), NJ1 (Mercer/Meier/Hischier), and NJ2 (J. Hughes/Gritsyuk/Brown) between 14-16% owned. We have the two New Jersey lines and SEA1 projected as far better values than Anaheim – who will likely end up more popular than 16% due to them being a major public favorite. I probably like NJ1 better than NJ2 – just because they have the better matchup against this Matthews line that is terrible defensively and plays faster. They also likely end up less popular due to not having Jack Hughes. I definitely do not mind SEA1 despite the poor pace and low-volume power play matchup against the Blues. The St. Louis Blue line has been one of the main reasons for their disaster of a season – and losing their only good actual defender in Colton Parayko definitely will not help. I don’t mind DET2 – but they just do not stand out to me.
- There are two expensive lines to talk about on this slate – TOR1 (Matthews/Nylander/McMann) and CAR1 (Aho/Svechnikov/Jarvis). Our model is very bullish on TOR1 tonight – and I get it. Matthews and Nylander are big-time, high-end talent at a discounted price of 19.7 and moderate 14% ownership. However, some caution is warranted here. We saw Matthews and Nylander play a whopping 25 and 26 minutes in an OT loss to the Flyers. We also saw them play 17-18 minutes in two games since the break where they got blown out. The Leafs are done and know it. They will need to stay in this game to have a chance at their ceiling – so the volatility is real.
- CAR1 is significantly more expensive at 21.2 and slightly lower owned at 12%. CAR has the highest total by 1.2 goals per our model and this line projects for .4 goals more than anyone else. They are also facing VAN – who is absolutely dreadful. We know that the CAR scoring is very spread out – and the field knows this too. I have CAR2 (Stankoven/Hall/Blake) and CAR3 (Staal/Ehlers/Martinook) at 8 and 6% ownership respectively. If you want to play CAR1 – I think that’s totally fine. I think the approach I prefer is to either play CAR2 or just a CAR overstack of 6 guys like Aho/Jarvis/Blake/Hall/Gostisbehere/Chatfield or Miller. I’m really not as enamored with CAR3. They have solid expected goals numbers – but these Staal/Martinook lines have long struggled to convert opportunities into actual goals. If you want to differentiate a CAR1 lineup – I think adding Mark Jankowski and Jalen Chatfield on top of them makes quite a bit of sense. Jankowski is a productive guy with no ownership and a minimum price tag who plays with Chatfield on the PK. I think something like Aho/Jarvis/Staal/Chatfield is also viable. Carolina is – by far – my favorite spot on the slate and I think large stacks of them make a ton of sense. I definitely like the expensive lines on this slate
- A big part of why I like the expensive lines is that there is a lot of cheap stuff that projects well on this slate – and it starts with this STL/SEA game when you get beyond CAR. The field seems to be gravitating to STL2 on the Blues side (7% ownership) – but I think that’s a mistake. I definitely prefer STL1 (Thomas/Snuggerud/Schenn) at 1% – as they saw the majority of the power play time the other day. SEA barely commits any penalties and the Blues barely draw any – but the Kraken are the absolute worst on the PK. The Blues are shopping Robert Thomas and need to show that he’s healthy and can run a power play if they hope to secure a huge return for him at the deadline. That doesn’t mean I don’t like STL2 (Buchnevich/Kyrou/Neighbours) though. They should see plenty of the Chandler Stephenson line – and every line with him on it is garbage defensively. STL3 (Suter/Dvorsky/Holloway) is also totally fine. A Thomas/Snuggerud/Holloway power play stack is also in play. I obviously like SEA1 on the Kraken side – but SEA2 (Stephenson/Tolvanen/Schwartz) also projects pretty well at a cheaper price and lower ownership (4%). I think you can go to a Wright/Kakko 2-man – but I’m not excited about it. I like SEA1 and STL2 – but SEA2 and STL1 seem underowned to me. I do want to reiterate a word of caution here though – this game will be extremely slow-paced and could be low event. I get why everyone besides SEA1 is low owned – and that’s why I prefer the STL Power play and the cheaper stuff.
- We also have very strong projections on TOR2 (Tavares/Knies/Domi). They’re our top projected value. I’m just not a fan. This line plays super slow and Max Domi just sucks at hockey – killing every line he plays on. They’d be better off swapping him out for his dad – Tie Domi.
- I have no idea what to do with this VGK/DET game. The lines these teams are putting out just stink outside of DET2. I definitely think DET2 + Seider is in play, but I’m not in love with the Vegas side. I just do not like anything there.
- I do think it’s totally fine to play the Islanders – just not straight NYI1. Horvat and Schaefer are two of the top plays on the slate without question. I think you can mix in some lower owned guys like DeAngelo, Soucy, Lee, and Holmstrom to bring down overall ownership if you want.
- I guess we need to address this mess we call the Vancouver Canucks. They will be the clear leverage on this slate. I don’t think these guys are necessary in smaller fields – but you should absolutely be playing them in larger ones. I guess I would go with VAN2 (Boeser/Rossi/Ohgren) if I’m going to a full line – but it’s also fine to just mix in guys like Boeser, Ohgren, DeBrusk, or Kane (if he plays). I don’t care about correlation that much with this team as much as whomever scores.
In smaller fields – I could go either way on Horvat/Barzal/Schaefer. I think you can mix it up with some non-PP guys if you want to play them. My preferred approach on this slate for smaller fields is probably going to be larger stacks of TOR or CAR – but mixing in the STL guys sims pretty well too. I do not think you need VAN in these events – but they will certainly provide leverage and can help the CAR top line reach their minutes ceiling. ANA1 seems fine – but likely to just be overowned.
In large fields, it’s wide open. I’m still probably leaning 4/3 – but the large CAR and TOR stacks are also in play. I think the cheap Blues look pretty intriguing in these formats – as do the Canucks. I think anybody is fine – but I am definitely bearish on the NYI/ANH game as a whole here outside of some weird Islanders combinations. Fading that game makes a lot of sense to me – since if it fails this could be either A) a slate dominated by CAR/TOR or B) just a really low scoring one overall that would put the STL/SEA game more in play.
NHL Defense
- Matthew Schaefer (5900) is way underpriced and the field knows it – as his 25% ownership shows. I’m fine with him. He’s the best play by a lot. Mo Seider (5600), Vince Dunn (4600), Jackson LaCombe (5300) and Morgan Reilly (4300) are all between 15-19% owned.
- I like Shayne Gostisbehere (5400) and Dougie Hamilton (5500) here at slightly lower 12-13% ownership
- Tony DeAngelo (4400), Philip Broberg (3400), K’Andre Miller (3100), Oliver Ekman-Larsson (3100), Simon Nemec (3000), Tom Willander (2500), and Carson Soucy (2500) all seem fine as cheap guys.
Schaefer is the top play by a ton and I’m fine eating ownership on him. I think pairing him with DeAngelo or Soucy makes a lot of sense. Hamilton, Reilly, Ekman-Larsson, Miller, and Gostisbehere are the other standouts.
NHL Goalies
- Whomever the CAR goalie is (8400) will be the chalk. The SEA goalie (8200) and Anthony Stolarz (7800) probably come in behind him. I don’t see anyone getting that much ownership here. The CAR guy probably gets 20% in large fields, but I could see that being into the 30s for smaller fields.
- Laniken (7000) has the highest ceiling here. I do not mind whomever the NJ goalie is either. The Leafs suck.
- Confirmed: Hofer (STL), Laniken (VAN), Stolarz (TOR), Talbot (DET), Rittich (NYI)
- Unconfirmed: Bussi (CAR), Grubauer (SEA), Allen (NJ), Husso (ANH), Hill (VGK)
Stacks and Theory
- I think this is a strong slate to look at larger stacks of CAR or TOR. They sim out pretty well
- 4/3/1 is still fine – but I would mix it up with non-power play guys and lower owned stuff.
- There is going to be a lot of duplication risk with this NYI/ANH game. Tread with caution when building 4/3/1 and 3/3 lineups using those teams
- I definitely like the STL/SEA game. Yeah – it’s gross. The ownership is low and my sims like it. I think SEA2 and STL1 present good opportunities at very low ownership
- Going to the expensive stacks in TOR1 and CAR1 makes a lot of sense tonight. It’s probably a pretty strong way to leverage against the balanced constructions that will use the NYI/ANH game. New Jersey is also fine – but it just seems like a lot of ownership for a team with pretty mid projections.
- If you want to play the Islanders and Ducks – multiple Islanders defensemen with one of them being Soucy or Mayfield makes sense. This is not a three defensemen slate
- Vancouver is the clear leverage play in larger fields, but you do not need them in smaller ones. The Blues are low enough owned there.
NHL Synopsis
For smaller NHL fields – I think you need to tread carefully with NYI/ANH. Horvat, Barzal, and the ANH1 guys are going to accrue massive ownership. I’m not worried about how owned Schaefer is though. You can just play him or pair him with one of their other non-PP defensemen. I prefer going to TOR1 or CAR1 with a cheap line from the STL/SEA game or just going to a large stack for this format.
In larger fields – I’m probably going under the field on everyone in the NYI/ANH game that isn’t Horvat, Schaefer, and Gauthier. Those are the guys with ceiling. The cheap Islanders defensemen are also fine. I think a large CAR stack is a really strong play – but so is Laniken with a couple of Canucks betting he stands on his head. The STL/SEA game also makes sense. Everything on the Blues side is contrarian. I would leverage the low ownership on them and the Canucks to jam in whatever else you want that isn’t a bunch of guys from ANH1.
*Ownership will be updated to reflect this article by roughly 1 ET.
*Line Data is drawn from moneypuck.com:
https://moneypuck.com/lines.htm