Welcome to Friday’s NHL DFS slate. We have a 7 game slate on tap for tonight. Lets get into it!
This NHL article is going to focus more on industry-wide NHL projections and ownership, some stuff that looks underowned, and the chalk construction. We’ll close with some game theory and leverage thoughts. Please tag me in discord (Kikikartier) with any feedback. Let’s dig in!
*If you have not read any of my contest review series – I will be referring to the findings consistently. I’d suggest at least reading the conclusion.
*I will be updating my thoughts and posting industry-consensus sims in NHL discord. so please check back.
This article was updated for lines and injuries at 4 pm ET. NHL Updates will occur throughout the day
Use this article in conjunction with the NHL models and Contest Sims to give yourself a real chance at winning each and every slate.
*Please consult dailyfaceoff or leftwinglock to verify goalies before lock. I’ll update a few hours before, but not everybody will be confirmed until 15 minutes before they start.
NHL DFS Lines
- There is a clear chalk build tonight – and it’s SJ1 (Celebrini/Smith/Graf) with CHI1 (Bedard/Burakovsky/Greene). I’m not really sure what to say other than these teams are both in great spots. St. Louis and Vancouver are both awful. As far as our projections go – the Sharks do not stand out as much as Chicago does. The Blackhawks are clearly the most underpriced team on the slate. I see both of these lines coming in around 18% – with Bedard and Celebrini probably being the slate’s highest owned players at 25% or so each. The CHI Power Play stack with Bertuzzi instead of Greene will probably carry more ownership than CHI1, but either variant seems fine to me.
- Beyond those two lines – it looks like a pretty flat second tier with DET1 (Larkin/Kane/Rasmussen), DET2 (Copp/DeBrincat/Raymond), VGK1 (Eichel/Barbashev/Bowman) and ANA1 (Carlsson/Gauthier/Kreider) all between 12-14% owned. Vegas and Anaheim are in strong spots that our tools like – but they see DET as a pretty marginal – but well-projected – play against FLA. DAL1 (Hintz/Robertson/Johnston) also come in with 15% ownership – but they’re in a price tier of their own at 20.2.
- We have two games on this slate with totals of 7 in MTL/ANH and CAR/EDM. We’ll start with the first one. This is a strong spot for Anaheim against a MTL team that has problems staying out of the penalty box. However, even strength defense is not a weakness for the MTL top line – and Anaheim just does not possess much depth at all. The Habs loaded up MTL1 with Suzuki/Caufield/Slafkovsky – so I would expect heavy minutes from them tonight. I like them quite a bit – even at 19.6 – considering that and their history of being excellent together. I suppose you could go to MTL2 (Newhook/Kapanen/Demidov) or MTL3 (Bolduc/Evans/Dach) if you wanted a cheap line to play COL1 or EDM1. It’s not a priority for me though. It’s close to top line or bust for me on both sides here – and that feels wrong for such a high total game.
- CAR/EDM is definitely a game that could produce some fireworks. There’s going to be a ton of talent on the ice in Edmonton tonight and the game will be played at a very fast pace. However, you are paying a big premium for the top lines here at over 20K apiece. There’s certainly the value to do it with some of the stuff I’ll get to in a bit, but I prefer going to CAR2 (Stankoven/Hall/Blake) or EDM2 (Draisaitl/Roslovic/Savoie) at their prices.
- We’ve got ourselves two other heavyweight battles tonight in COL/DAL and MIN/VGK. You can absolutely go to DAL1 or COL1 (MacKinnon/Necas/Landeskog) tonight. I like the spot for DAL1 quite a bit against a line in COL1 that really struggles defensively. The field does as well judging by the ownership. COL1 is the best offensive line in hockey – but it’s a pretty loaded slate and you’re paying through the nose for them at 22.6. They’ll certainly be 5-7% owned though – making them a solid large field GPP play tonight. DAL1 is definitely in the small field conversation tonight
- VGK1 projects as a strong value for us and they are definitely in the small field discussion tonight. However, the projections and myself are both bullish on the Minnesota side here. MIN1 (Kaprizov/Hartman/Zuccarello) comes in with a strong projection and pretty marginal 7% ownership. The same goes for MIN2 (Eriksson Ek/Boldy/Tarasenko) at a slightly lower price tag and ownership number. I don’t know if I get to the Wild in smaller fields – but they are a very strong large field play tonight.
- Now that we’ve talked about all these awesome games – I guess we have to talk about the abomination that is this Vancover/Chicago game. CHI1 will be chalky tonight. However, I definitely think you can go to CHI2 (Nazar/Teravainen/Donato) or CHI3 (Bertuzzi/Moore/Mikheyev) as a pairing with the more expensive line of your choice. The Canucks are an absolute disaster – so everything from Chicago is in play. However, I wouldn’t go nuts and play 5 or 6 of these guys. Chicago projects well, but they just don’t generate that much offense as a team.
- The strength of the Blackhawks this year has been their goaltending and Penalty Kill. However, trading Jason Dickinson and Connor Murphy will definitely downgrade their PK – and they commit a lot of penalties. Therefore, I do think the Vancouver power play is viable tonight. If I’m going to an even strength line from them it will be VAN2 (Rossi/Boeser/Ohgren) – but who knows what the lines look like at game time here after the Canucks traded everything including the Vending Machines that did not have a no-move clause.
In smaller fields – Chicago is clearly the strongest play. They just project too well for me to suggest fading them. CHI1 is the chalk – but CHI2 is definitely viable as well. I could go either way on SJ1. That’s going to be a terrible game environment and there are plenty of lines that project similarly to them for us. I could definitely see going to ANH1 or MTL1 instead of the Sharks here. DAL1 with a cheap Chicago line also seems viable.
In large fields, it’s wide open. There really isn’t anything that you need to fade. I think MIN1/2, COL1, CAR2, EDM2, and the Chicago depth all make interesting contrarian pieces. I think it’s a 4/3/1 or 3/3 kind of slate. Pretty straight forward with few standouts.
NHL Defense
- Sam Rinzel (3600) and Mo Seider (5400) are the chalk at 20% each. Nobody else gets 12%. I think both of these guys are fine – but Rinzel is a tough fade in smaller fields – like CHI as a whole.
- I am obviously all for playing Cale Makar (7500) or Quinn Hughes (7800) here.
- Noah Dobson (5100), Jackson LaCombe (5200), Brock Faber (4800), and Philip Broberg (3400) are all strong plays in the mid-tier
- If you want somebody really cheap you can go to Tom Willander (2500), Mario Ferraro (2500), or Louis Crevier (2800) for value.
It’s pretty wide open beyond Seider and Rinzel. There are plenty of guys to like though.
NHL Goalies
- John Gibson (8200) looks like the chalk at 20%. Tough night for goalies.
- I think Tolopilo (7000) is a pretty sharp play against a Chicago offense that is very popular and not very good. I’m ok with Gudstavsson (MIN) as well. He has been on an incredible run since the break.
- Confirmed: Gibson (DET), Oettinger (DAL), Blackwood (COL), Tolopilo (VAN), Jarry (EDM), Dostal (ANH), Montembeault (MTL), Schmid (VGK), Nedeljkovic (SJ)
- Unconfirmed: Bobrovsky (FLA), Knight (CHI), Bussi (CAR), Gustavsson (MIN), Hofer (STL)
Stacks and Theory
- 4/3/1 and 3/3 are probably my go-to structures here. I don’t see a team that’s likely to pull away from the field tonight.
- The chalk lines in SJ1 and CHI are both in strong spots. I would not sleep on the Chicago depth though. You can absolutely go to CHI2 in order to dump a bunch of ownership.
- It’s really wide open. No team really presents a huge edge here due to the spread out ownership.
- I definitely like MIN1 and MTL1 as alternatives to SJ1.MIN, MTL and ANH would be my go-to teams to start with.
- I like the EDM/CAR game – but I do not love the prices. CAR2 and EDM2 look like solid ways to access that game.
- How you handle Chicago is the big decision here. I’m not really enthusiastic about large stacks of them because they’re just not very good at hockey and do not generate enough shots.
- Rinzel and Seider are chalk and both underpriced
- On the expensive end – I do like COL1. I think they’re going a bit overlooked tonight.
NHL Synopsis
For smaller NHL fields – I think you probably eat some Chicago chalk and go from there. San Jose seems fine – but they don’t seperate themselves from the pack projections-wise for us. I think going elsewhere to MTL1, ANH1, or maybe even COL1 makes sense.
In larger fields – It’s wide open. I would probably get over the field on the Chicago depth and under on CHI1. That’s how I plan to handle it. I definitely like Minnesota and Colorado tonight. I think they’re both pretty undervalued. The same goes for EDM2 and CAR2.
*Ownership will be updated to reflect this article by roughly 6 ET.
*Line Data is drawn from moneypuck.com:
https://moneypuck.com/lines.htm