Welcome to Monday’s NHL DFS slate. We have a 4 game slate on tap for tonight. Lets get into it!
This NHL article is going to focus more on industry-wide NHL projections and ownership, some stuff that looks underowned, and the chalk construction. We’ll close with some game theory and leverage thoughts. Please tag me in discord (Kikikartier) with any feedback. Let’s dig in!
*If you have not read any of my contest review series – I will be referring to the findings consistently. I’d suggest at least reading the conclusion.
*I will be updating my thoughts and posting industry-consensus sims in NHL discord. so please check back.
This article was updated for lines and injuries at 4 pm ET. NHL Updates will occur throughout the day
Use this article in conjunction with the NHL models and Contest Sims to give yourself a real chance at winning each and every slate.
*Please consult dailyfaceoff or leftwinglock to verify goalies before lock. I’ll update a few hours before, but not everybody will be confirmed until 15 minutes before they start.
*it was not known that Brock Boeser and Evander Kane would be game time decisions at the time of publication. Check Canucks lines before the game starts and make changes accordingly. If Boeser is out my guess is Linus Karlsson replaces him on PP1.
NHL DFS Lines
- UTA1 (Schmaltz/Keller/Guenther) is the clear chalk tonight at 30% owned. They’re facing a Chicago team fielding it’s 3rd string goalie. It’s a lot of ownership – but I’m ok with it as there are a plethora of cheap lines to play with reasonable ownership tonight. The second tier of popular lines encompass OTT1 (Stuetzle/Batherson/Giroux), OTT2 (Tkachuk/Cozens/Greig), WSH1 (Ovechkin/Strome/Beauvillier), and WSH2 (Wilson/Dubois/Protas). My unrequited love for the Senators is well documented. 25% is kind of a lot for OTT2 and 20% is kind of a lot for OTT1 – but I think it’s fine. I definitely have my concerns about Washington though. How much do they push their old guys (Ovechkin, Strome, Wilson) in a season where they’ve waived the white flag by trading Carlson? I don’t know, but I doubt they see heavy minutes. Considering they’re facing a Calgary team that isn’t dreadful at even strength – I definitely like Washington the least of the three – as much as our tools disagree.
- We definitely have a couple of solid pivots for both Utah and Ottawa in UTA2 (Cooley/Crouse/Peterka) and OTT3 (Pinto/Amadio/Cousins). We actually have UTA2 with the second highest projected goals per our marketshares tool and there’s a lot of talent on this line. I do not mind playing them instead of – or in a mixture with – UTA1. My love for OTT3 – and Shane Pinto – is well documented. They actually have a higher projected goal share than OTT1 tonight and project as a strong value at 6% ownership. I like them quite a bit on this slate given their depth matchups on the road, low ownership, and excellent numbers year to date. They are my top cheap line of the night.
- Logan Thompson is going to be 30% owned – so we have to talk about the Flames here. It’s really not that bad of a spot for them outside of the matchup against Thompson. Washington doesn’t commit a ton of penalties – but the Washington PK was the worst in hockey when Nic Dowd was hurt and now he’s been traded. No line with Ovechkin, Strome, and Jake Chycrun will ever be good defensively – so I don’t mind CGY1 (Frost/Farabee/Coleman) at all. CGY3 (Coranato/Backlund/Olofsson) will be better defensively than offensively – but I don’t mind going to them either. The only issues with the Flames – beyond Thompson – is figuring out who will actually score and the power plays splitting time. I think the prices mitigate both of those issues though. I see them as the top large field play of the slate and also in consideration for smaller fields as a solid leverage play.
- We also have to talk about…..sigh…..the Vancouver Canucks. While this team is a joke – the Ottawa goaltending continues to be as well. Losing Jake Sanderson isn’t going to help matters either. That Sanderson/Zub pairing had been excellent all year. I think you can definitely go to either VAN2 (Rossi/Boeser/Ohgren), VAN1 (Pettersson/Debrusk/Hoglander) or a Vancouver power play stack here. Bluegar/Karlsson seem fine if you want a cheap two-man. The Canucks offense hasn’t been an embarrassment recently and they are very affordable. I do not mind looking here for a cheap line either.
- The other three teams – Chicago, Philadelphia, and the Rangers – look significantly worse than the rest. If you want to play Chicago – CHI2 (Nazar/Bertuzzi/Teravainen) hasn’t been bad and they would be my choice. Vanacek does suck. I have very little interest in this Rangers/Flyers game – but there is some value on the Flyers that’s viable. PHI2 (Cates/Michkov/Barkey) looks like the best bet there – but I don’t hate going to PHI1 (Dvorak/Konecny/Bump) either. It’s just a tough matchup for them against the Fox/Gavrikov pairing and Shesterkin. If you want to play NYR1 (Zibanejad/Perreault/Cuylle) that’s fine. They seem correctly owned and 12%.That is the worst game environment with the the lowest total though.
In smaller fields – I would be looking at UTA1 with one of OTT3/VAN2/CGY1. I think all 3 of these lines present strong value. However, you could also go to a larger OTT stack with a bunch of the power play guys and something else contrarian. My favorite approach here would probably be some kind of VAN/OTT game stack though. I think this game could get out of control. You can also go to Washington – they’re just my least favorite of the three teams with big totals.
In large fields, it’s wide open. I definitely like a VAN/OTT game stack here. I’d be focused on the power play guys for Vancouver and pretty much whomever from Ottawa. I think a 6-man stack with 3-4 guys from the power play and Pinto/Amadio or Cousins is a sharp play as well. I don’t mind a large Washington stack or UTA1 – but I think this VAN/OTT game could easily be the highest scoring. I also like the Flames and UTA2 quite a bit. The last thing I would say is don’t be afraid to leave salary on the table tonight. I would definitely lower your salary floor when generating MME portfolios today. I could easily see something like OTT PP/UTA2 winning this slate with like 1.5-2K left.
NHL Defense
- Jakob Chycrun (6800) and Thomas Chabot (4300) are both about 40% owned. Playing them together will be extremely chalky. I normally don’t care about ownership at defense as much – but 80% is too much for me to eat.
- No other defensemen on the slate is even getting 20%. Adam Fox (6000), Filip Hronek (3800), Sam Rinzel (3900), MacKenzie Weegar (4900), and Sean Durzi (4400) all come in at 14-16% each.
- Jamie Drysdale (4200) and Zayne Parekh (3300) seem okay as lower owned power play guys
- Rasmus Sandin (3000), Yan Kuznetsov (2900), Tyler Kleven (2700), Louis Crevier (2700), and Jordan Spence (2600) all look like very strong plays on the cheap end.
It’s pretty wide open beyond Chycrun and Chabot. Chabot is definitely underpriced for what should be a massive role in a great matchup. I think he’s tough to fade in smaller fields, but you can pass on Chycrun. I think you can put yourself in a position to be different by getting off him – even if that involves leaving salary on the table.
NHL Goalies
- Logan Thompson (8100) is the big chalk at 35%. Nobody else gets even 16%.
- I’m fine with either Shesterkin or Vladar are fine. Igor might get up into the 20s ownership wise – if anyone else does. I could see it breaking where Thompson and Shesterkin dominate ownership.
- Devin Cooley (7300) looks like the strongest of the low owned guys. Laniken (6900) also seems fine
- Confirmed: Shesterkin (NYR), Vladar (PHI), Cooley (CGY), Thompson (WSH), Remier (OTT), Laniken (VAN)
- Unconfirmed: Vanacek (UTA), Commesso (CHI)
Stacks and Theory
- 4/3/1 or 3/3 are certainly fine here – but this is a good slate for 5 and 6-man stacks. We have 3 teams with big totals and two of them are priced affordably. I think larger OTT or WSH stacks are a strong alternative to playing expensive UTA.
- I think the Flames look like a strong contrarian play as a secondary stack tonight. CGY1 or CGY3 would be my preference.
- OTT3 is an excellent alternative or addition to OTT1/OTT2/OTT PP stacks. The Sens minutes are pretty spread out among the top 3 lines and the Pinto line has been excellent this year
- UTA2 and/or Carcone/Kerfoot is a great alternative to UTA1 in large fields.
- I definitely don’t mind going to Vancouver here – even though there is real risk that they may just not generate enough offense.
- You can certainly go to Chicago, New York, or Philadelphia. They are just way below the other 5 teams for me.
- I think you kind of have to get away from the Chycrun/Chabot combo. over 80% ownership is too much on defensemen when you consider how high owned the rest of the best plays are.
- Thompson is super chalky. Going to the other side with Cooley makes a lot of sense to me
NHL Synopsis
For smaller NHL fields – I think you can eat the UTA1 chalk if you want. UTA1/CGY1/Cooley makes a lot of sense to me. A larger Ottawa stack or a VAN/OTT game stack also make sense. You could also go to Washington – I just think they are the easiest to fade because of the huge ownership on Chycrun and Thompson.
In larger fields – I definitely like Calgary and I’m more inclined to invest in UTA2 as an alternative to UTA1. I think they’re a really strong play. Ottawa is chalky, but there are enough low owned guys with OTT3/Spence/Kleven to make a larger stack different. I’m staying away from the Chabot/Chycrun combo here and probably going under the field on WSH as a whole. Vancouver is also an intriguing target – even though Remier is probably an upgrade on Ullmark and there is a chance that VAN just doesn’t get enough shots off. I’m inclined to stick closer to the VAN PP guys.
*Ownership will be updated to reflect this article by roughly 5 ET.
*Line Data is drawn from moneypuck.com:
https://moneypuck.com/lines.htm