Welcome to Saturday’s shitshow of an NHL slate. It’s 12 games and there’s a lot to go over, so let’s dive in!
This NHL article is going to focus more on industry-wide NHL projections and ownership, some stuff that looks underowned, and the chalk construction. We’ll close with some game theory and leverage thoughts. Please tag me in discord (Kikikartier) with any feedback. Let’s dig in!
*I will be updating my NHL thoughts and posting industry-consensus sims in NHL discord. so please check back.
This article was updated for NHL lines and injuries at 3:30 pm ET. Updates will occur throughout the day
Use this article in conjunction with the NHL models and Contest Sims to give yourself a real chance at winning each and every slate.
NHL DFS Lines
*The following players are questionable at this time: Matthew Knies (TOR), Mats Zuccarello (MIN), Vladimir Tarasenko (MIN), Seth Jarvis (CAR), Jared McCann (SEA), Kappo Kakko (SEA), John Carlson (WSH), the entire St. Louis Blues Roster, and the entire Columbus Blue Jackets roster. I’ll address these situations in discord as they are clarified.
- It’s a big slate, so there’s not a ton to discuss ownership-wise. The two lines that will carry ownership of 15% or more are TOR1 (Tavares/Nylander/Robertson) and SEA1 (Beniers/Marchment/Eberle). They are both 17-20% owned. I’ve spoken ad nauseum about the Kraken – so my readers can guess what my opinion is here. I don’t want to play a team that’s last in shot attempts, high danger chances, and penalties drawn/60* as chalk on a 12-game slate. If you want to play the TOR1 – that’s totally fine. They are the stack with the highest win probability. I do like the idea of playing Domi/McMann/Robertson though. It projects pretty well industry-wide and is their second PP unit. If I am going to play SEA – it’ll be their second PP unit with Marchment/Schwartz/Montour. SJ1 (Celebrini/Smith/Kurashev) probably gets some secondary ownership around 10-12% as well. Nothing crazy though.
- My two favorite teams on this slate are the Minnesota Wild and New York Rangers. They’re both in great spots against lousy defensive teams who play at a high pace and allow lots of high danger chances. I really like MIN1 (Kaprizov/Hartman/Zuccarello) and MIN2 (Eriksson EK/Boldy/Johansson) against Anaheim’s poor defense and PK. The Minnesota Power Play is the best in hockey, they draw penalties at a top-5 rate, and Anaheim commits them at a top-10 rate. If they get 3-5 chances with the man advantage – watch out. The Rangers are facing this dreadful Columbus team who allows a ton of high danger chances. NYR2 (Trochek/Panarin/Lafreniere) have picked up right where they left off last year – generating a ton of offense and finishing their chances. I love them here. I also like NYR1 (Zibanejad/Miller/Perrault) and a Laba/Cuylle 2-man. You could also roll Cuylle into either line to make it a PP stack. Columbus doesn’t commit many penalties, but they don’t kill them off well either.
- The other two spots I like quite a bit are both sides of the DET/BUF and MTL/BOS games. I think DET1 (Larkin/Debrincat/Raymond) looks like a very strong play here. Our matchup and marketshares tools absolutely love them – and the value is there to play them. BUF1 (Thompson/Tuch/Mcleod) projects really well for us – and I like them. I just prefer the BUF depth in Rosen, Quinn, and/or Doan. They project really well Industry-wide, are on the top PP, and don’t have to face the top defensive pair of DET – who have been elite this year. This MTL/BOS game is interesting. Any time two penalty-prone teams with shaky goaltending get together it creates a volatile game environment. MTL1 (Suzuki/Caufield/Slafkovsky) has plenty of upside with the full Power Play correlation, but my favorite cheap line of the day is MTL2 (Dach/Kapanen/Demidov). They’ve been generating an elite amount of offense – and our line marketshares tool has them for over a full goal. That’s a lot for a 10K line. I don’t hate a BOS PP stack either because – as we saw the other night – MTL could just get shot into the sun if they keep committing penalties and having their goalies fall flat on their faces.
- There are three things you can really count on in life: Death, Taxes, and me playing the Edmonton Power Play. Zach Hyman is back and people don’t want to play them. I’ll take my chances against shaky CAR defense and goaltending that got lit up by a very mid VAN team last night.
- I do like the SJ PP tonight against this SEA team. Matt Murray is terrible. I wish Philip Kurashev wasn’t on the top line and they’d kick Klingberg off the power play straight onto his couch, but whatever
- Our projections love BUF1, MIN1, TOR1, and WSH1 among many other lines tonight. Our line marketshares tool loves DAL1, TOR1, and CHI1
Synopsis: TOR1 and SEA1 looks like the clear chalk. I wouldn’t touch a 15% owned SEA1 with a 10 foot pole in small field. Just playing TOR1 with a line like WSH1 or SJ1 if you want to do the chalky thing. I really like the Rangers and Red Wings tonight though. DET1 and NYR2 are in the small field pool for me.
In larger fields, I listed my favorite teams above. I think the MIN PP, MTL PP, and DET1 offer the highest ceilings. I love MTL2 as a secondary line tonight, but if you just want to run a 2-man I think you can play any of: Strome/Vatrano, Zacha/Arvidsson, Quinn/Rosen, Laba/Cuylle, or Granlund/Killorn. Yes – I am going back to the EDM PP too. Hyman is back so I can’t quit now!
NHL F/C One-Offs
- The Most Popular one-offs tonight are likely to be William Nylander (7600), Mason Marchment (4200), and Jaden Schwartz (4500). I prefer any of Artemi Panarin (7800), Jason Robertson (7400), or Alex Debrincat (7300) to 30% owned Nylander. Ivan Barbashev (4400) and Will Cuylle (4500) are both strong pivots away from the Seattle chalk
- Cheap-O PP guys: Easton Cowen (2500), Braeden Bowman (2500), Noah Ostlund (2600), Isak Rosen (2800), Jack Quinn (3100), Eeli Tolvanen (3400), and the list goes on and on today.
- Non-PP specials of the day: Arseny Gritsyuk (3100), Josh Doan (3500), Frank Vatrano (3000), Fabian Zetterlund (3000), Taylor Hall (3400), Ivan Barbashev (4400)
Synopsis: I think Playing Nicolas Robertson off TOR1 as a one-off makes a lot of sense. I really like the Rangers and Red Wings tonight – so Artemi Panarin, Will Cuylle, and Alex Debrincat are some of my favorites.
NHL Defense
- Vince Dunn (4900) and Shayne Gostisbehere (4300) look like the chalkiest defensemen at around 15% each.
- I definitely like Jake Chycrun (5700), Evan Bouchard (6400), Jackson LaCombe (4700), Adam Fox (6100), and Moritz Seider (6000)
- Your cheap PP defensemen are: Zeev Buium (3400), Oliver Ekman-Larsson (3500), Cam Fowler (3600), and the worst defensemen in the NHL – John Klingberg (3700). Gostisbehere is so much better than any of these guys.
- #TeamNonPP: Noah Dobson (5000), Jake Walman (4800), Mike Matheson (3800), Brock Faber (4500), Darnell Nurse (4200), Morgan Reilly (4100), and Thomas Harley (4400)
- A few other cheap guys to consider are: Vladislav Gavrikov (3200), Jake McCabe (3100), Philip Broberg (3500), Owen Power (3400), Adam Larsson (3100), Esa Lindell (2900), Connor Timmins (2700)
Synopsis: In smaller fields – I think you just play Gostisbehere and/or Dunn. I think Gostisbehere is the best defensemen on the board by a lot. In large field you can either correlate with your stacks or chase ceiling. If I’m chasing ceiling with a one-off – it’s Bouchard, Chycrun, or Rasmus Dahlin
NHL Goalies
- Jake Oettinger (8500) and Connor Hellebuyck (8000) are probably the highest owned at around 15% each. Hellebuyck is worth the ownership.
- I like Yaroslav Askarov (7400), Lukas Dostal (7500), and Spencer Knight (7500). They should all have a decent shot at the bonus.
Synopsis: Play whoever you want
NHL Stacks and Theory
- TOR1/SEA1 or WSH1 looks like the chalk to me
- Our projections love BUF1, MIN1, TOR1, and WSH1 among many other lines tonight. Our line marketshares tool loves DAL1, TOR1, and CHI1
- Beyond the clear chalk, you can kind of choose your own adventure.
- Dunn and Gostisbehere are the chalk at defense. I vastly prefer Gostisbehere. I think you can play Adam Larsson with SEA1 to make your stack different. I’m just going to not play a lousy team as chalk, but to each their own.
- I think fading this SEA/SJ game makes a ton of sense. There’s just too much ownership on two very low event offenses for my taste. I think playing Askarov makes some sense though.
- McMann/Domi/Robertson as a stack makes a ton of sense from a leverage standpoint and projects really well. The BOS Power Play is also pretty cheap outside of Pastrnak. Geekie/Zacha/Arvidsson makes an appealing secondary stack
- ANH/MIN, CBJ/NYR, and CAR/EDM all seem like pretty high event spots. BOS/MTL has a ton of variance, a high ceiling, and a super slow pace. It’s Power Plays or bust in that game
NHL Synopsis
For smaller fields – I think you can play TOR. I’d just play Morgan Reilly instead of Ekman-Larsson. WSH1 and SJ1 make sense as lines to pair them with. I do think MIN1 or NYR2 are viable options though. They should be high event enough.
In larger fields, choose your favorite plays. I think playing an expensive stack of your choice with McMann/Domi/Robertson, MTL2, or one of the two-mans I mentioned earlier makes a lot of sense. I prefer MIN PP, EDM PP or DET1 on the expensive end. I like NYR2, BOS PP, and MTL1 in the mid-tier. Overall, I think it’s a decent night for bigger, more expensive stacks. I like some of the value we have quite a bit.
*Line Data is drawn from moneypuck.com:
https://moneypuck.com/lines.htm