Welcome to Another Week of NHL. We have – what looks to be – a pretty high-scoring 6-game slate tonight. Let’s dig in.
This NHL article is going to focus more on industry-wide NHL projections and ownership, some stuff that looks underowned, and the chalk construction. We’ll close with some game theory and leverage thoughts. Please tag me in discord (Kikikartier) with any feedback. Let’s dig in!
*I will be updating my NHL thoughts and posting industry-consensus sims in NHL discord. so please check back.
This article was updated for NHL lines and injuries at 2:30 pm ET. Updates will occur throughout the day
Use this article in conjunction with the NHL models and Contest Sims to give yourself a real chance at winning each and every slate.
NHL DFS Lines
*X/X denotes Large Field/Small Field ownership
- The one piece of really heavy chalk on tonight’s slate looks to be FLA1 (Lundell/Marchand/Samoskevich) with ownership in the low 20s in large field and close to 30% in smaller fields. They’re in a strong spot against a Vancouver team that’s pretty poor defensively and plays high-event hockey. They also project as an extremely strong value industry-wide. However, our model is decidedly more bearish than the field on them. Things get a bit muddy after that. However, I feel pretty strongly that the chalk will be to pair them with either CBJ2 (Fantilli/Marchenko/Vornokov), EDM1 (McDavid/Hyman/Savoie), or EDM2 (Draisaitl/Roslovic/Podkolzin). I would guess that CBJ2 comes in around 20%/23-25% with both EDM lines around 17%/20%.
- I see FLA2 (Rodrigues/Reinhart/Vergaege), WSH1 (Strome/Ovechkin/McMichael), BUF1 (Thompson/Tuch/Doan), and BOS1 (Pastrnak/Geekie/Khusnutdinov) each coming in around 10-12% in both field sizes. It’s possible BOS1 jumps into the CBJ/EDM ownership bracket because Khusnutdinov is on the PP now, but I doubt it. Their total just isn’t that high.
- I understand the ownership on BOS1 and CBJ2. This just really isn’t the best spot for either of them and ownership is driven by having matchups with two teams whose goaltending has been terrible recently. This is certainly a high ceiling spot for Columbus – MTL has started committing a bunch of penalties again – but it’s really not the best. MTL is one of the slowest paced teams in hockey and the CBJ Power Play has been pretty bad all year. They’re dead last in high danger chances and 29th in expected goals on the Power Play*. They project well and the total is healthy, but temper expectations. BOS1 is fully correlated on the PP – and they’ve been doing a bunch of damage there – but they also just lost Viktor Arvidsson and Charlie McAvoy to injury. Khusnutdinov is a defense-first guy and Lindholm isn’t the distributor McAvoy is. I get the spot for them – and Pastrnak is an incredible player – but just know what you’re rostering.
- The industry is high on FLA2 and WSH1, but our model is even higher. It has them as the two best plays of the slate by far. We are also very high on CBJ1 (Monahan/Johnson/Chinakov), WSH2 (Sourdif/Wilson/Protas), FLA3 (Bennett/Gregor/Boqvist) and VAN2 (Sasson/Boeser/Sherwood) from a point/$ perspective.
- Our matchups tool is extremely high on FLA tonight. Our Line marketshares tool is very high on both FLA1 and FLA2. It likes EDM2 and CBJ2 and well, but not to the same extent.
- It’s also worth mentioning that Thompson/Tuch/Doan line has absolutely run people over in the past. I expect the BUF PP to be pretty popular though because Thompson/Quinn/Rosen or Ostlund is so cheap.
- This is an excellent large field GPP slate. A few of my favorite plays for large field GPPs tonight are CAR1 (Aho/Svechnikov/Jarvis), CBJ3 (Coyle/Sillinger/Olivier), MTL1 (Suzuki/Caufield/Slafkovsky) and UTA1. Aho/Jarvis/Svechnikov just continue to produce at an elite rate – and they won’t get much ownership because they’re about 2K more expensive than the other better-projected lines. CAR2 (Stankoven/Blake/Ehlers) also looks pretty good. The same can be said for UTA1 (Cooley/Schmaltz/Keller). They’re also both fully correlated on the PP and facing two teams that are top 5 in the league in penalties committed. MTL1 doesn’t generate a lot of offense, but maybe Columbus can help them maximize their chances. They should also see a minutes bump with Kirby Dach sidelined. CBJ3 has quietly been pretty good. 3.67 expected goals* is pretty good – and they’re facing the MTL depth which doesn’t scare me in the least. They also get roughly 3 minutes more ice time than CBJ1 per game and create high danger chances at a solid rate*. If you want a cheap line, this is one of a few that I like. I think a Foegele/Moore, Crouse/Peterka, or Strome/Killorn 2-man also makes quite a bit of sense on the cheap end.
- It’s also worth mentioning that all sorts of EDM/BUF game stacks are in play tonight. EDM will run out McDavid/Draisaitl/Hyman at even strength if the game is close or they’re behind in the 3rd period. You do need BUF to push them in order for that to happen though.
Synopsis: FLA1 and one of CBJ2/EDM1/EDM2 looks like the chalk to me in small fields. I could see the ownership getting pretty flat after FLA though. It wouldn’t surprise me if folks chase the recent performances with a BOS1 or BUF1 stack either. FLA1 is really the one decision you have to make there.
In larger fields, you can go a ton of different ways tonight. I definitely like pivoting from CBJ2 to CBJ1 or CBJ3 and pairing them with CAR1 or UTA1. I also think a VAN PP stack at zero ownership is very playable tonight. Stacking against a chalky Bobrovsky and FLA team seems like a move to me. I also think a WSH PP stack makes a ton of sense when you consider our projections.
NHL F/C One-Offs
- The Most Popular one-offs tonight are likely to be Brad Marchand (5900) and Leon Draisaitl (8500). You’ll likely see both at around 25% total ownership.
- I think Alex Tuch (5600), Andrei Svechnikov (5700), Zack Hyman (6000), Kirill Marchenko (6600), Sam Reinhart (6500), and David Pastrnak (8800) are a few guys with multi-goal upside to look at.
- Known Net Front PP guys: Hyman, M. Geekie, T. Wilson,
- Cheap-O PP guys who project well industry-wide: Ostlund (2500), Rosen (3000), Leonard (3100), Khustnutdinov (3100), Quinn (3400)
- Non-PP and leveraged specials of the day: Kane (5400), Peterka (3900), Doan (3700), Samoskevich (3400), McMichael (3300), Savoie (3100), Foegele (2900), Chinakov (2500)
Synopsis: The BUF PP guys are so cheap that they’re likely popular. I’d prefer to play any of the cheap non-PP guys listed above. I think anybody from VAN makes a ton of sense. So do Hyman, Marchenko, and Reinhart. The mid-tier guys who are underpriced are usually my go-to guys as one-offs. The field typically goes toward the expensive guys though
NHL Defense
- Zack Werenski (7700), Evasn Bouchard (6300), and Seth Jones (4100) will be the guys between 15-20%. I would guess Shayne Gostisbehere (4800) gets around 15% as well.
- I definitely like Jake Chycrun (5700), Evan Bouchard (6400), and Quinn Hughes (6900). Mikhail Sergachev (6000) looks good too, but I strongly prefer him in the context of a stack with UTA1/PP.
- Your cheap PP defensemen are: Hampus Lindholm (3500) and Seth Jones (4100), Lane Hutson (4600)
- #TeamNonPP: Noah Dobson (5000), Jake Walman (4800), Darnell Nurse (4200), Matthias Ekholm (3900), Aaron Ekblad (3300), Owen Power (3200), Gustav Forsling (3100)
Synopsis: In smaller fields – I think you just play two of Dahlin, Bouchard, Werenski, Gostisbehere, and Jones. In large fields, I definitely like Quinn Hughes, Jake Chycrun, Jake Walman, Darnell Nurse, and Gustav Forsling. You can play anybody in large field, but these are just some of the lower owned guys that shoot.
NHL Goalies
- Sergei Bobrovsky (8400) looks like the chalk in the mid-20s. I expect Jeremy Swayman (7200) to be the the cheap guy the field goes to at around 15%. He could end up chalk too. Goalie ownership is hard to predict.
- This is a rough night for goalies. I’ll just play whomever fits. The VAN goalie makes sense from a leverage standpoint, but that could be a bumpy ride. If I had to pick a favorite I guess it would be Swayman or Kuemper. I say that with no conviction though. None of these guys look very good.
Synopsis: Play whoever you want
NHL Stacks and Theory
- FLA1 and one of CBJ2/EDM1/EDM2 looks like the chalk to me. The lineup will have a defensemen correlated on the PP as well.
- Our projections like CBJ2, CBJ1, WSH1, and FLA3 as the best values
- The matchups tool, market shares tool, and the industry as a whole like FLA1 and FLA2. The chalk is basically everything FLA.
- Werenski, Jones, Bouchard, and Gostisbehere look like the chalk defensemen to me.
- I think you can do whatever you want if you don’t play FLA or CBJ2. Carolina looks like the most underowned team here. CAR1 and CAR2 both look like strong large field GPP plays. The same can be said for UTA1. Both UTA1 and CAR1 fall in a price range just above the chalk. CAR2 has been really good this year (3.6 xG/60) and faces the very depleted depth lines of BOS. I like MTL1 as well, but I prefer to play it with at least one of Dobson/Matheson. That’s a good stack to just drop Slafkovsky and get yourself a one-off insetad.
- I think a VAN PP stack makes a lot of sense as a large field leverage play. The don’t draw that many penalties (21st), but FLA commits plenty of them. Their PP is also 8th in expected goals and 5th in high danger chances. I also think an EDM/BUF game stack with both McDavid and Draisaitl makes a ton of sense.
NHL Synopsis
For smaller fields – I think you can play CBJ2 or FLA1. I don’t think you can create enough leverage playing them together though. I’d prefer to play FLA2 or make it a PP stack with Reinhart as opposed to straight FLA1. Werenski is in a fine spot, but I’m not sure you need him tonight. MTL doesn’t shoot at that high of a rate and they’re good defensively. Their goalies have just sucked the last while.
In larger fields, CAR1, UTA1, and MTL1 all make a lot of sense. I think CBJ1 or CBJ3 make a lot of sense as secondary lines. I just prefer CBJ3 because I suspect it’s lower owned due to having no Power Play equity. They’re owned individually – but I do really like a Draisaitl/McDavid/Hyman stack tonight. I think there’s plenty of well-projected cheap stuff to make it work. MTL1 with both defensemen also makes sense. A VAN PP stack is also really strong tonight. They could definitely win you all the money tonight at no ownership.
*Line Data is drawn from moneypuck.com:
https://moneypuck.com/lines.htm