Welcome back to another day of NHL DFS. We have a monster 15 game slate tonight. This should be fun
This NHL article is going to focus more on industry-wide NHL projections and ownership, some stuff that looks underowned, and the chalk construction. We’ll close with some game theory and leverage thoughts. Please tag me in discord (Kikikartier) with any feedback. Let’s dig in!
*I will be updating my NHL thoughts and posting industry-consensus sims in NHL discord. so please check back.
This article was updated for NHL lines and injuries at 1 pm ET. Updates will occur throughout the day
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NHL DFS Lines
*When I refer to NHL ownership – those numbers will be reflected in the run I push through after this article
- So it’s a huge slate. There really are no true chalk lines. I doubt anything even gets to 15%. However, the three highest owned lines – all 12-13% – are ANH1 (Carlsson/Gauthier/Sennecke), COL1 (MacKinnon/Necas/Lehkonen) and CBJ1 (Fantilli/Chinakov/Voronkov). Anaheim, Colorado, and Columbus are teams the public loves to play – and they’re all facing dreadful defensive teams in Vancouver, San Jose, and Toronto. ANH PP combinations with Terry instead of Sennecke and CBJ PP combinations with Johnson instead of Chinakov will probably be just as popular. Additionally, I suspect that one of the field’s goals will be to jam in Nathan MacKinnon (9800) against the Sharks no matter what. He is likely the most popular player on the slate at 18-20% owned. There’s more than enough value to jam him in with some cheap PP guys from TOR. The chalkiest combination with COL1 will be TOR3 (Laughton/Cowan/McMann). They project extremely well industry-wide. If I’m playing COL1 I strongly prefer ANH3 (Strome/Killorn/Vatrano), CGY3 (Backlund/Coleman/Zary), or NSH3 (Marchesseault/Bunting/McCarron).
- I don’t mind any of these stacks. Columbus is probably my least favorite though. Toronto is bad, but Columbus without their best F/C in Marchenko. There’s just so much to play on a slate like this.
- Our matchups tool likes the Chalk – COL, CBJ, and ANH. It also likes PIT, WSH, and NYI.
- COL1 has by far the biggest marketshare according to our tools
- Our projections have COL1 with the highest raw score by 4 points. They like MIN1 (Yurov/Kaprizov/Zuccarello), VGK2 (Hertl/Dorofeyev/Marner )and NSH1 (O’Reilly/Forsberg/Evangelista) in the mid-tier. They also like WSH1 (Strome/Beauvillier/Ovechkin), NYI2 (Barzal/Drouin/Lee), STL3 (Suter/Kyrou/Holloway), and ANH2 (McTavish/Terry/Kreider) as strong values.
- Anaheim seems fine as chalk. The field loves the Ducks and also PP stacks against VAN. However, It’s worth pointing out that Anahem commits just as many penalties as the draw – they’re top 5 in both categories per 60. The Vancouver power play has also been absolutely LETHAL this year. They are a full expected goal better than anyone else in the NHL. Anaheim is the most popular team on the slate overall, but there’s a much greater chance the power play opportunities go against them than the field believes. I love the Vancouver Power Play (Petterson/DeBrusk/Boeser/Hughes) at very low ownership.
- I like the BOS Power Play for similar reasons tonight. It seems that NYI2 (Barzal/Drouin/Lee) will carry ownership around 10%. Boston draws an elite amount of penalties, their Power Play has been top 5 in the NHL, and the Islanders penalty Kill has been Dreadful. I think any combination of Pastrnak and Geekie with Lindholm or Zacha looks pretty strong here. The Islanders power play also looks pretty strong. A Horvat/Barzal/Palmieri/Schaefer PP stack is firmly in play.
- I suspect that Spencer Knight will be the chalk tonight. MIN1 (Yurov/Kaprizov/Zuccarello), MIN2 (Eriksson Ek/Boldy/Johansson), and the MIN Power play are all very viable. The Wild power play continues to be lethal, MIN draws plenty of chances, and CHI commits their fair share of penalties.
- DET will carry some ownership, but I think a Larkin/DeBrincat/Raymond/Seider stack is a strong alternative to COL1. You could make the same argument for DAL with Hintz/Robertson/Rantanen/Heiskanen against this dreadful SEA team. A UTA Power Play stack – and UTA1 for that matter – also looks like a very strong play against penalty-happy Montreral. They look super low owned and are a similar play to VAN. Both sides of WPG/WSH are also in play. It will be WPG1 (Scheifele/Connor/Vilardi) with Morrissey or Demelo on the Jets side for me. I like the WSH PP with both defensemen or a Wilson/Protas/Roy 3-man on the WSH side.
- COL2 (Nelson/Colton/Landeskog) seems like a fine alternative to COL1 here. You can easily play Makar with them.
- Worth noting – there’s 30 teams on the slate. I just can’t mention everyone. There’s any number of stacks that are totally fine.
Synopsis: In small fields, I think you can just play COL1/ANH3 if you want. Otherwise, I think merging two of the cheaper value lines and jamming in MacKinnon and/or Makar is another solid route. You could go the ANH/CBJ route, but I suspect it’s overvalued considering VAN is running out another AHL goalie.
In larger fields, the Vancouver power play looks like the sharpest leverage on the board. You can play COL1 or Anaheim, but I’d rather do something like play the MIN, DET, or UTA Power play with Colorado 2 or Anaheim 3. WPG1 and both sides of the BOS/NYI game are pretty high on my list. You can really do whatever you want. Just be aware that the ownership on the Anaheim power play will be pretty intense. ANH3, NSH3, COL2, Wilson/Protas/Roy, Kyrou/Holloway/Faulk, or Peterka/Crouse/Cole are in play as cheap stuff to fill out the lineup.
NHL F/C One-Offs
- I suspect the most popular one-offs tonight will be Nathan MacKinnon (9800). I suspect he gets around 20% ownership. He’s fine, but It’s a monster slate and that’s a lot of ownership for a skater at his price. I suspect the field will use cheap PP guys to jam him in
- I could list any number of guys here. However, I’m more inclined to play mid-tier guys as one-offs here. When we get to slates this size, I think that’s the best way to capture ceiling. If a 5-6K guy scores 25, you need him to win a large field GPP. If Nathan MacKinnon scores 25-30 he likely sinks your lineup in those GPPs. I like Morgan Geekie, Chris Kreider, Tyler Bertuzzi, Jake Debrusk, Tomas Hertl, Kyle Palmieri, Logan Cooley, and Adam Fantilli along these lines.
- Cheap PP guys: Dalibor Dvorsky (2700), Calle Jarnkrok (3000), Easton Cowen (3100), Oliver Bjorkstrand (3100), and Beckett Senecke (3200)
Synopsis: using cheap PP guys – especially from TOR – to jam in MacKinnon will be a pretty chalky move. It’s one I’ll be avoiding. James and myself both believe that attacking the mid-tier skaters is the way to capture the ceiling in NHL large field GPPs. That’s probably how I attack this slate.
NHL Defense
- Zach Werenski (8000), Cale Makar (8200), and Jackson LaCombe (4600) are the clear chalk defensemen on this slate. I expect them to be 18-20% owned each. Darren Raddysh (4500) probably accrues low double digits as well.
- Quinn Hughes (7000) is my favorite defensemen on the slate. He’s a great alternative to these other expensive guys. Mo Seider (5700), Rasmus Dahlin (6900), and Roman Josi (6500) also seem pretty good at discounted ownership.
- In the mid-tier I like Matthew Schaefer (5500), Mikhail Sergachev (5400), Noah Dobson (4900), Shea Theodore (4700), Brock Faber (4100), Hampus Lindholm (4300), and Brandon Montour (4600)
- on the cheap end I like Owen Power (3400), Brent Burns (3700), Kris LeTang (3700), Matt Roy (3300), Tony Deangelo (3200), and Gustav Forsling (2900)
- Your cheap PP guys are Cam York (3200), Zeev Buium (3200), Cam Fowler (3200), and Dmitry Orlov (3400)
Synopsis: In smaller fields – I think you play one of Makar and Werenski with LaCombe or Raddysh. You could play LaCombe/Raddysh too.
NHL Goalies
- I suspect Jeremy Swayman (7200) and Spencer Knight (7500) are the chalk at 10-12% each – and 17-20% each in small fields. Andrei Vasilevsky (8400) probably gets 10% as well. It will be pretty flat in large fields
- I’ve got no real lean here. I don’t know if I can stomach Tolopilo (7400) or the Sharks goalie (6900). Vasilevsky, Greaves, Talbot, or DeSmith seem fine I guess
Synopsis: Play whoever you want
NHL Stacks and Theory
- I suspect the chalk is some kind of ANH Power Play or CBJ stack that jams in MacKinnon and/or Makar. Based on what I’ve seen reviewing large slates, I refuse to believe the field doesn’t prioritize MacKinnon.
- ANH is going to be pretty big chalk tonight. I love the VAN Power Play as leverage. They have been phenomenal this year, ANH takes plenty of penalties, and is pretty mid defensively.
- The matchups tool likes the chalk – COL, ANH, and CBJ
- I think the MIN, UTA and DET Power plays are strong pivots away from COL1. WPG1 is as well.
- It’s pretty wide open, so play whomever you want. Anaheim, Columbus 1, and Colorado 1 are the chalky pieces
- I’m de-emphasizing the super expensive F/Cs on this slate. I think there’s too much to be mined in the mid-tier.
- I think playing two of Makar/Werenski/Hughes makes a ton of sense from a contrarian standpoint.
NHL Synopsis
For smaller fields – play COL1 if you want. ANH1 and CBJ1 are fine too. I think WSH1/PP, VGK2 (the Hertl line), and DET2 are also viable options
In large fields, do whatever you want. However, I think this is a solid night to avoid getting sucked in to the super expensive skaters. There’s so much upside to be mined with the mid-priced stacks at lower ownership. VAN1/PP, UTA1/PP, DET PP, and MIN1/PP look great as primary stacks. ANH3 is there as a well-projected cheap alternative. However, I prefer getting to another mid-priced line or playing something like Wilson/Protas/Roy, Schwartz/Tolvanen/Montour, or Kyrou/Holloway/Faulk. Crouse/Peterka/Schmidt or Cole is also there as a cheap alternative.
In conclusion, I think the field is hitching their wagon to expensive skaters. This works on smaller slates, but if MacKinnon or Pastrnak gets 30 that could easily sink your lineup here. There’s going to be a lot of goals scored. The F/C pieces that lock themselves into the large field winning lineups tend to come in the 4-6K range, not the 9-10K range. If you’re using cheap power play guys to jam MacKinnon I think you’re making a mistake in large field GPPs.
*Line Data is drawn from moneypuck.com:
https://moneypuck.com/lines.htm