NHL DFS Overview – October 23rd, 2025

The NHL columm has resumed! I wish the contests were a little better, but this looks like a really fun 12 game slate. Probably my favorite slate of the year so far – so let’s dive in

This article is going to focus more on industry-wide projections and ownership, some stuff that looks underowned, and the chalk construction. We’ll close with some game theory and leverage thoughts. Please tag me in discord (Kikikartier) with any feedback. Let’s dig in!

*I will be updating my thoughts and posting industry-consensus sims in discord. so please check back.

This article was updated for lines and injuries at 1:30 pm ET. Updates will occur throughout the day

Use this article in conjunction with the NHL models and Contest Sims to give yourself a real chance at winning each and every slate.

NHL Lines

We have some pretty clear chalk at the top here in NYR1 (Zibanejad/Panarin/Cuylle), BOS1 (Pastrnak/Geekie/Lindholm), and TB2 (Hagel/Cirelli/Kucherov). All 3 of these lines are probably somewhere in the 15-18% range. Our NHL sheets like NYR1 and BOS1 the best, but PD projections like TB 2 the best by a fair amount. I suspect that they’re all close to the same due to the outsized popularity of NYR2 – which will also be around 15% owned and the chalk secondary line by a wide margin. They should be about twice as owned as the alternatives (NYI2, FLA2).
The Rangers are at home in an elite matchup. They certainly deserve plenty of ownership. NYR1 has so far posted 2.65 xGoals/60 – 45th out of 76 qualified lines* and 65 shot attempts/60 (32nd/76)*. NYR2 is cheaper and is top 25 in xGA/60 and Shot Attempts/60*. They’ve been the much better line in a small sample. I don’t mind FLA2 or NYI2, but I probably prefer NYI2. They have better projections and I think FLA2 ends up higher owned due to the matchup against PIT.
BOS1 has been even worse at 2.03 xGA/60 (60th/76) and 60 shot attempts/60 (47th/76)*. Hagel/Cirelli lines typically generate plenty of offense – and I can’t imagine Kucherov does anything but help. It’s super early – and that stuff is likely meaningless – but I’m giving you a reason to get away from BOS1 and NYR1 if you want it. TB2 is my favorite of the chalk lines by a fair amount here
PD is 3-4 points below the industry on both NYR1 and NYR2. The sheets still love the Rangers – and NYR1 in particular. There are a lot of other lines that look like them per the sheets and our projections though. We are also well over the industry on PIT1 and NSH1 as primary lines – but we always are. PIT1 will come with super low ownership and looks like a great large field GPP play. O’Reilly and Forsberg have a good history together without Marchesseult or Stamkos, but I’m just not making it a priority on a 12 game slate. Sheets are also infatuated with NYI1. Do with that as you will.
PD NHL projections absolutely love the Sharks and Ducks tonight. SJ1 has one of the highest projections of the night. SJ2 and all 3 Anaheim lines project as extremely strong values. The sheets love this spot for ANH and I completely agree. ANH2 (McTavish/Vatrano/Sennecke), ANH3 (Granlund/Terry/Nestrenko) and SJ2 (Wennberg/Skinner/Eklund) project as extremely strong secondary lines. We also love SJ PP1 and ANH PP1. Outside of them, I think the mid-tier is pretty weak tonight. However, if you insist on now spending up DAL1 or 2 seem fine.
As far as myself – I like EDM1 and EDM2 quite a bit tonight. I don’t like EDM1 quite as much with Savoie instead of Podkolzin, but they still look great. EDM2 (Nugent-Hopkins/Roslovic/Mangiapane) hasn’t shown much yet, but the sheets really like them and all 3 are good hockey players. They will click eventually and MTL’s defense falls off after the first line. Give me EDM1 on the high end as the pivot away from the chalk and EDM2 looks really interesting on the low end. They have almost the same total as the Rangers and EDM1 has 1/3-1/4 the ownership and by far the two best goal props on the slate in McDavid (-110) and Draisaitl (-115). Zero people are playing EDM2 and they’re my low owned play of the night.
I also like WPG1 on the high end. Just not close to as much as EDM1. Pass on COL1.
On the cheaper end I do want to mention a few lines. OTT2 (Pinto/Giroux/Amadio) seems fine. FLA2 has been getting absolutely run over, so PIT2 (Malkin/Brazeau/Mantha) is kind of interesting. They’ve been great early on. TB3 (Gourde/Bjorkstrand/Holmberg) and COL3 (Drury/Colton/Olofsson) look like solid dirt cheap plays
Outside of SJ and ANH – SEA against chalk Hellebuyck is the sicko play of the night. Pick whichever line. They all project as ok values.

Synopsis: BOS1/NYR1/TB2 are the clear chalk primary lines. NYR2 is the chalk secondary line by a factor of two. PD projections love both SJ and ANH, so you can easily be different. SJ1 looks the best, but just pick a line in either top 3. We also like all 3 SEA lines as sicko leverage plays against chalky Hellebuyck. My preferred alternative to the Chalk is EDM1, but EDM2 also looks good at much lower ownership. Outside of SJ and ANH I like TB3 as a bargain basement line. It’s a 12 game slate and there’s likely to be multiple paths to winning. Therefore, I think you can definitely get away from the super high owned stuff in larger fields. Rangers stacks of all sizes will be popular in large fields. I think TB2 is probably my top play for smaller fields, but if you want to just eat the chalk you can overstack the Rangers and be different elsewhere.

Note: I no longer like VAN PP after they juggled their lines.

Note: Updated for Podkolzin and Savoie switching places

F/C One-offs

Synopsis: Kucherov (8000) is still underpriced. Pastrnak (8500) is probably underpriced for this spot, but I also think Kyle Connor (7800) is a solid alternative that’s much lower owned. Our model loves Macklin Celebrini (6900) and you can certainly play him as a one-off as well. I usually prefer to shop for one-offs in the mid-to-low mid tier because huge scores from those guys make them necessary to win. That’s not always true with super expensive guys in NHL. Corey Perry (2600) is your dirt cheap PP guy du jour. I’ve played much worse. I’ll just give you a list of my one-off pool below. Remember – it’s a huge slate so play whomever. This is just my personal list

Expensive (6500+): Pastrnak, Connor, Draisaitl, Celebrini
Mid-tier (5000-6400): Barzal, Tippett, Toffoli, Couturier
Low-mid (3500-4900): Carlsson, Granlund, Wright, Lee, Nichushkin, Schwartz, Terry, Bjorkstrand, Vatrano, Zetterlund
Cheap (2800-3500): Skinner, Brazeau, Niederreiter, Olofsson, Colton, Savoie, Misa, Eller
Free: Perry, Laba, Nyman, Nesterenko, Raty, Carrick

*Note: I no longer like Sherwood with him on PP2

Defense

Adam Fox (6400), Victor Hedman (6200), Charlie McAvoy (4700), Thomas Chabot (4400), and Jake Sanderson (5900) probably get above 10%. Only Fox and McAvoy probably get to 15% – and playing them together looks like the chalk to me. McAvoy and Chabot seem like fine values.
If you insist on playing the Rangers, then Gavrikov (3200) looks like a reasonable low-owned guy. Jackson LaCombe (4900) and Dmitry Orlov (3400) both project well and run the PPs for ANH and SJ respectively. They seem like solid plays at moderate ownership.
I think there are several strong pivots in the 4K range. Colton Parayko (4500) and Jake Walman (4100) are both substantially underpriced. Darnell Nurse (4300) is an active guy who shoots a lot. Miro Heiskanen (5000) is a reasonably priced PP1 guy you can play independent of the DAL PP. Matthew Schaefer (5500) is shooting a ton for the Islanders and seems solid as well.
Evan Bouchard (6900), Quinn Hughes (7300) Colton Parayko, Jake Walman, and Vince Dunn (4800) are my favorite defensemen on the slate
PD really likes Walman and Gavrikov. It’s a tough night for the punt defense crowd, but if you must I think Cale Fleury (2700), Brett Kulak (2700), Emil Lilleberg (2500) and Matthew Robertson (2500, if active) are the best you’ll get
playing two defensemen from the same team is always a strong way to differentiate a stack on slates like this. You could do Gavrikov/Fox or Schneider/Fox with a Rangers stack I suppose. Hedman/Lilleberg makes sense if you want to do a TB PP stack with Bjorkstrand. Walman/Nurse is a viable way to get access to EDM2
Hampus Lindholm (3100) is questionable for Boston. He’s certainly in play, but he matters more in the sense of the Bruins defense in an NHL sense. He really helps their defense if he plays – and he didn’t for most of last year

Synopsis: Fox, Hedman, McAvoy, Chabot, and Sanderson are the chalk at defense. There’s tons of good pivots away from McAvoy/Chabot in the 4K range. Vince Dunn is my favorite overall defensemen, is playing 25-27 minutes a night, and a strong play in all fields. Jake Walman is also a strong play. Both of them will be owned, but I think that’s a great small field pairing. Just correlate with your stacks in large field. It’s a particularly weak night for punting defense, so I’d try not to do it

Goalies

Hellebuyck (8300) and Shesterkin (8400) are likely to be the clear chalk around 20% each.
PD likes Hellebuyck, Shesterkin, Vasilevsky (8500), Wedgewood (7900), and Demko (7900). I’ll take the guy against the Predators at by far the lowest ownership out of those 5.
Dostal/Mrazek (7600) and Nedeljkovic (7000) are the leverage plays. I don’t mind Dostal/Mrazek. Boston is pretty lousy beyond that first line.

Synopsis: Play whoever you want

NHL Stacks and Theory

BOS1, NYR1, or TB2 with NYR2 or one of FLA2/NYI2 is probably the chalk here. I’m not super worried about ownership on such a huge NHL slate – but the Rangers are the exception. A huge percentage of lineups will end up with Rangers in one form or another because they project so well. That’s the one thing to account for – especially in larger fields. If you want to overstack them in smaller fields that’s probably fine, but I’d do it cross-line. The 5-man PP won’t provide you any leverage. You probably want to add someone like Laba, Gavrikov, Robertson, or Carrick
TB2 is my favorite chalk line. They’re probably the lowest owned and have the benefit of not sucking.
PD NHL Sheets and projections love everything SJ and ANH. I tend to agree. I do wonder if we are over-projecting ANH a bit though. Boston’s defense seems likely to be much better than last year. They’re cheap enough to where it’s not a big concern though. SJ2 and ANH3 are my favorites from those two teams.
my favorite lower owned team here is EDM. I like both EDM1, EDM2, any of the top 4 defensemen, and Kulak. WPG1 is also in a strong spot and TB3, COL3, OTT2, and PIT2 seem like an options on the cheap end.
SEA is the true sicko play of the night. Pick a line. Any line. I do prefer Wright/Nyman/Fleury or just SEA2. They’re in a decent spot and WPG has been leaky defensively outside of the first line.
McAvoy and Chabot seem fine as chalk. I’m less excited about the expensive chalk in Hedman and Fox though. There’s so many options I like that I outlined above. Vince Dunn, Jake Walman, Jackson LaCombe, and Colton Parayko are my favorites
Hellebuyck and Shesterkin are the chalk goalies. PD also likes Vasilevsky, Wedgewood, and Demko. I typed Wedgewoof by mistake there. Freudian slip.
You can really play anyone here. I just outlined what I like. There’s myriad options. I do think it’s a poor slate for balanced builds though.

Synopsis

NYR1/2, TB2, and BOS1 are the chalk in the mid-to-high teens. The Rangers are the only team whose ownership I really worry about. Everyone loves attacking the Sharks and it’s worked early on. Our tools love ANH and SJ. I totally agree. They also like EDM, but probably not as much as I do. I really like their line combinations. Our sheets absolutely love NYI1 and PIT1, so do with that as you will. PIT2, EDM2, TB3, OTT2, COL3, and VAN1/PP are some of my favorite off the board plays. There’s likely to be multiple ways to win here though, so don’t get too married to anything. Good luck tonight and I’ll see you tomorrow for Friday’s NHL slate. Check back for updates.

*Line Data is drawn from moneypuck.com:

https://moneypuck.com/lines.htm