Welcome to the MLB DFS Triple Play here at Paydirt! This is going to be a daily article aimed at giving thoughts and notes on three important aspects of the MLB DFS slate. This article is best used with the projections models here at Paydirt (Found here), but it will still be valuable even as a one off piece of content. While the focus is on Draftkings, the content is applicable to Fanduel as well.
DFS Slate Overview
- Slate ownership is focused on the combo of Gausman with Dodgers bats. Secondary ownership is falling on Giants, Diamondbacks, and Pirates.
- Mitch Keller rates as the top pitcher in the models and provides an ownership discount off of Gausman. The aforementioned Gausman, Hunter Brown, Clarke Schmidt, and James Paxton rate as the best of the rest.
- The Braves rate as the top stack in the models and are a good pivot off of the Dodgers. The Yankees, Diamondbacks, Reds, and Angels rate as the next best options.
Depending on the size of the slate, there may be multiple situations, value plays, and popular options that you need to consider. Join the Paydirt discord with this link for more updates and game theory on all the slates details: https://discord.gg/mQ6u5dfawF
True AVG Heroes and Zeros
Heroes: Kevin Gausman, Mitch Keller, Hunter Brown
All three of tonight’s heroes are legit talents on the mound. Gausman and Brown face off in what should be a pitchers duel, however, both teams do feature good offenses. Mitch Keller, on the other hand, gets one of the best matchups at home in a pitcher’s park against a pathetic A’s squad.
Zeros: Hayden Wesneski, Tommy Henry, Carlos Carrasco
All three of these pitchers have frequently been listed in the zeroes section. Carrasco has faced a combination of inconsistent and bad teams which has kept him afloat, however, tonight he faces a Braves team that is capable of destroying him. The Angels and Nationals will both be under-owned versus the awful Wesneski and Henry.
If you are interested in seeing all of the True AVG tables and metrics, along with other research oriented tables, you can find them here!
MLB Cash Game Core:
This core of players will help you build a strong foundation in cash games. While it is best to use all these players, it’s not a requirement.
SP: Kevin Gausman
1B: Shohei Ohtani
2B: Miguel Vargas
3B: Max Muncy
SS: Tucupita Marcano
OF: Jack Suwinski
MLB GPP Core:
This core of players will help you build in differentiation in your DFS lineups. These players are meant to be mixed in with some of the stronger chalk options. How many of these players you put in is dependent on the size of the field and personal risk tolerance.
SP: Clarke Schmidt
1B: Jake Bauers
2B: Adam Frazier
3B: Patrick Wisdom
SS: Elly De La Cruz
OF:Jake Fraley
DFS Stack Considerations
Braves
Yankees
Diamondbacks
MLB DFS Final Thoughts
Starting with Gausman and Braves makes sense in small field. You can utilize a handful of other options as secondary stacks to get different (NYY, CIN, MIL). In large field the models support fading both Joe Musgrove and Freddy Peralta. In addition to the top stacks, the Reds, Angels, Cubs, Mets, Nationals, Guardians, and Rangers are all viable. As far as pitching, the main combo people will use is Gausman paired with one of Musgrove/Peralta. However, fading Musgrove/Peralta and pivoting to Clarke Schmidt looks like a strong move per the models.
GL and let’s bake some bread!
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