Welcome to the MLB DFS Triple Play here at Paydirt! This is going to be a daily article aimed at giving thoughts and notes on three important aspects of the MLB DFS slate. This article is best used with the projections models here at Paydirt (Found here), but it will still be valuable even as a one off piece of content. While the focus is on Draftkings, the content is applicable to Fanduel as well.
DFS Slate Overview
- Slate ownership is focused on the combo of Shohei Ohtani with Padres bats. Secondary ownership is falling on Braves, Brewers, and Mets.
- Daniel Lynch rates as the top pitcher in the models and will be extremely low-owned. Rich Hill and Yu Darvish rate as the best of the rest. Based on the models, pitcher is a good place to get different with your roster builds.
- The Phillies rate as the top stack in the models and are a solid pivot off of Braves. However, the Braves are right behind the Phillies and the popular Brewers and Padres also rate well. The Dodgers, Giants, Pirates, Cardinals, and Nationals are all lower-owned options that look good in the models.
Depending on the size of the slate, there may be multiple situations, value plays, and popular options that you need to consider. Join the Paydirt discord with this link for more updates and game theory on all the slates details: https://discord.gg/mQ6u5dfawF
True AVG Heroes and Zeros
Heroes: Daniel Lynch, Rich Hill, Luis Castillo
Daniel Lynch makes an excellent SP2 option that will allow you to fit pricier hitters. Castillo will be popular, but is cheaper and lower-owned than Ohtani. Lastly, Rich Hill is probably best suited for large-field GPPs.
Zeros: Michael Grove, Luis Medina, Austin Gomber
Attacking Medina and Gomber is going to be popular with people flocking to Brewers and Padres. However, the Phillies look to be egregiously under-owned versus the pitcher with the worst True AVG on the slate.
If you are interested in seeing all of the True AVG tables and metrics, along with other research oriented tables, you can find them here!
MLB Cash Game Core:
This core of players will help you build a strong foundation in cash games. While it is best to use all these players, it’s not a requirement.
SP: Shohei Ohtani
1B: Ryan Noda
2B: Owen Miller
3B: Ha-Seong Kim
SS: Willy Adames
OF: Brandon Dixon
MLB GPP Core:
This core of players will help you build in differentiation in your DFS lineups. These players are meant to be mixed in with some of the stronger chalk options. How many of these players you put in is dependent on the size of the field and personal risk tolerance.
SP: Daniel Lynch
1B: Carlos Santana
2B: Mookie Betts
3B: Jace Peterson
SS: Dansby Swanson
OF: Kyle Schwarber
DFS Stack Considerations
Phillies
Braves
Brewers
MLB DFS Final Thoughts
Starting with Castillo and Braves makes sense in small field. You can utilize a handful of other options as secondary stacks to get different (PHI, SF, STL). In large field the models support fading Ohtani and lowering exposure to Padres bats. In addition to the top stacks, the Giants, Cardinals, Padres, Dodgers, and Pirates are all viable. As far as pitching, the main combo people will use is Ohtanis paired with one of Tyler Wells/Jordan Montgomery. However, fading Ohtani and pivoting to Castillo makes sense. Additionally, Daniel Lynch and Rich Hill are strong SP2 options in larger GPPs.
GL and let’s bake some bread!
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