Welcome to the MLB DFS Triple Play here at Paydirt! This is going to be a daily article aimed at giving thoughts and notes on three important aspects of the MLB DFS slate. This article is best used with the projections models here at Paydirt (Found here), but it will still be valuable even as a one off piece of content. While the focus is on Draftkings, the content is applicable to Fanduel as well.
DFS Slate Overview
- Slate ownership is focused on the combo of Gerrit Cole with Guardians bats. Secondary stack ownership is falling on Reds, Dodgers, and Twins. Secondary pitcher ownership is falling on Clayton Kershaw, Aaron Civale, and Ben Lively.
- Clayton Kershaw rates as the top pitcher in the models. Kershaw will have some ownership but is still the ideal pivot off of Cole. Kutter Crawford and Jordan Montgomery rate as the best of the rest and are both great low-owned SP2 options.
- The Pirates rate as the top stack in the models and will have no ownership. The Cardinals, Giants, White Sox, Astros, and Reds rate as the next best options.
Depending on the size of the slate, there may be multiple situations, value plays, and popular options that you need to consider. Join the Paydirt discord with this link for more updates and game theory on all the slates details: https://discord.gg/mQ6u5dfawF
True AVG Heroes and Zeros
Heroes: Reid Detmers, Clayton Kershaw, Kutter Crawford
Reid Detmers has been atop this Heroes list and will be unowned in GPPs but has a tougher matchup. Kershaw and Crawford seem like the ideal GPP pairing as the field will be going high-low with Cole and Civale/Lively
Zeros: Aaron Civale, Marcus Stroman, Mackenzie Gore
For as bad as Civale is the A’s also don’t rate well so this is likely an avoid on both sides. However, the Pirates and Cardinals both rate well against Stroman and Gore respectively.
If you are interested in seeing all of the True AVG tables and metrics, along with other research oriented tables, you can find them here!
MLB Cash Game Core:
This core of players will help you build a strong foundation in cash games. While it is best to use all these players, it’s not a requirement. These players can also be used as GPP one-offs in contrarian builds.
SP: Clayton Kershaw
1B: Paul Goldschmidt
2B: Ketel Marte
3B: Elly De La Cruz
SS: Amed Rosario
OF: Jonny DeLuca
MLB GPP Core:
This core of players will help you build in differentiation in your DFS lineups. These players are meant to be mixed in with some of the stronger chalk options. How many of these players you put in is dependent on the size of the field and personal risk tolerance.
SP: Kutter Crawford
1B: Ryan Noda
2B: Ji Hwan Bae
3B: Josh Donaldson
SS: Brandon Crawford
OF: Jack Suwinski
DFS Stack Considerations
Pirates
Cardinals
Giants
MLB DFS Final Thoughts
Starting with Kershaw and Reds makes sense in small field. You can utilize a handful of other options as secondary stacks to get different (PIT, STL, and SFG). In large field the models support fading Cole and Guardians. In addition to the top stacks, the Astros, Reds, Diamondbacks, and Rangers look good as well. As far as pitching, the main combo people will use is Cole paired with Civale or Lively. However, you may also see some double ace builds with Cole and Kershaw plus cheap bats. Kershaw looks good in the models, but Cole/Civale/Lively can all be faded tonight.
GL and let’s bake some bread!
Powerful tools for every sport
One site, one affordable price
Join Free by signing up below for 3 days of full access!
- Make decisions using a players full range of outcomes, not just their median projection.
- Use actionable metrics based on leverage that help you identify mistakes the field is making and leverage them for your own success.
- Have access to experts in the field along with coaching opportunities to build your process.
- Jump in the Paydirt community discord and join conversations around your favorites sports all day, every day, for free.